FUTURES RESEARCH

0387 – Future Observatory 1 - The UK Millennium Project

Towards the middle of the 1990s my research shifted towards the future. 

In the first instance I did some content analysis of the scenarios produced by students on B885.  This was interesting, and contributed significantly to the way we taught scenarios on later courses.  It didn't, though, provide much information about the future itself.  So I started a whole series of group discussions.  Ultimately I ran more than 20.  In the first place I ran some with B885 students at residential schools.  The technique used was developed over the first few of these, and this once more significantly changed the way we handled group discussions in general and scenarios in particular.  Thus, we developed a technique of using a group of six to eight people provided with a Post-It™ notes, on which they wrote their ideas. These are all described in the separate papers.

We moved from the residential schools to work, in particular, with the Strategic Planning Society and Demos. I also ran a group discussion at the Henley centre -- as much to teach them the technique as for my own research. The biggest single client I had, though, was Surrey County Council.  We ran four sessions, for a total of almost 100 of the councillors and senior staff. It was a very effective process, as much for improving the lines of communication within the council as for predicting the future.  These, again, are described separately

In fact, I developed a teaching module based on scenarios which I eventually taught to half a dozen other organisations; including a pharmaceutical company and the Tavistock Institute.  This had the added advantage that I got paid for delivering these sessions.  On the other hand, Aberdeen College, who were taught in this way, later went on to sell the process much more effectively than I did!

To link all these activities together I called the project the 'Millennium Project'. This sounded grand, but in fact it really was only me.  Having said that, as I found out later, the process really demanded no more than one person. The most labour-intensive of the processes were the surveys, which we eventually used; first on B885 students and then on OU alumni in general.  But even these only required that I design the quite lengthy questionnaire. It was sent out by OU staff.  Once returned, the results were then punched in by an outside bureau, and all I had to do was to use SPSS to analyse the final results.  Mind you, these were the best quantified results about the future that anyone had ever done to that point. 

By the end of this time I was starting to get papers published in academic journals and to be invited to deliver papers at a few international conferences. The most influential of these was that held by the equivalent German organization, in the town of Gelsenkirchen in the middle of the Ruhr. The, of course, OU sent me the cheapest way possible, which involved me flying on a cheap airline, which soon after went bust, to Munchen Gladbach, again in the middle of nowhere.  I then had to travel cross country by train, not understanding the ticketing system. 

I eventually did arrive at the hotel which was basic but quite comfortable.  The conference itself was held in the conference room attached to the office complex where the centre had its operational HQ.  It was very good conference.  It was only the second time I had used interpreters.  It's quite an experience. Not least, when you crack a joke and are rewarded by a round the laughter, a few seconds later another round of laughter comes back as the interpreters then pass it to the rest of the audience.  But it was very good audience. Not least I met Mike Rogers from the European commission. He was very influential later in the work on the Future Observatory. Fortunately, my paper was very well received and I think that helped to make some of my reputation internationally.

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