ETHIOPIA & PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR
0388
Report to Ambassador
[As I describe elsewhere, I regularly reported by to the UK ambassador. Most often these were face to face or by telephone. Just occasionally, as here, I reported in writing]
James Glaze 15 August 1992
United Kingdom Ambassador
Addis Abeba
Your excellency,
I have just spent an hour and a half alone with the President, during which time some points emerged that bear upon the conversation we had yesterday: so I will detail these below;
1) He confirmed the view that the government is undertaking planning, on a massive scale - but it is taking its time to get this exactly right. He observed that ('as farmers') in Tigray they moved at a slower pace and thought more deeply - the hectic pace of the big city is not for them. In particular, he stressed that they were determined to keep their roots in the country - and not to be corrupted by the city as had been so many African governments. They plan over a very long timescale - as you know from their military campaigns - and are trying to do in ten years what Britain did in 700 (from the time of its first parliament - his knowledge of UK history is better than mine!). For them a year in politics is a short time (to paraphrase Harold Wilson's saying).
2) He confirmed that over the next few months there would be a flood of new developments, as the work of the task forces was completed. Their first (very clear) priority would be the country - where 90% of the population live; this was where their strength lay in any case. They did not see Addis as being the whole of Ethiopia, though, on the other hand, they recognised it was an important part of it and must also be catered for. They had very deliberately moved slowly to understand how the bureaucracy worked before starting to make changes.
3) As a matter of principle they did not announce promises, in case they had to break them, and they had (rather naively, they now realise) expected people would eventually see the results for themselves. But they recognised they had to communicate better and would now be announcing things as they happened - though still not promising them in advance. Even so, he thought there were few (even in the diplomatic community?) who were perceptive enough to see just how far reaching were the changes they were making - a view I concur with (since the concepts we were discussing in terms of government were far beyond anything the West has implemented - though they were a blend of free market economy/democracy with long term planning and heavy involvement of the people).
4) They found the World Bank easy to deal with (much preferable to politicians and journalists). They were very happy with what was proposed, though the problems of fuel and fertiliser costs remained.
5) They recognised their shortcomings in finding out the complaints of the population, and wanted the diplomatic community to help them find out where things were going wrong. They clearly trust the diplomats and see them as valuable allies in this respect - and, you will be delighted to hear, he saw you as being pre-eminent among them. The Minister of Defence had reported that my lectures on Marketing (covering the customer and markets as well as marketing research) had been extremely useful (in fact he had obviously been fascinated by the subject - which is interesting, and reassuring, in view of their moves to a market economy), so the President requested a copy of my book to study this material as well. So that you know what they are thinking of, I enclose a copy of it for you too.
6) More specifically they had involved the diplomats in the observation of the election because they genuinely wanted independent observers to tell them what was going wrong - and how they should improve. They take the report seriously and accept everything in it - though they do point out that it is their first real election ever, so it is not surprising that there was some chaos. I think they are resigned to Western governments commenting on it, and I only said (very generally, as a personal comment) that I thought he was possibly right in thinking that these remote governments might be tempted look it at in the context of their own cosy domestic political scene - though I knew that the ambassadors here were very supportive of this government on the issue. As requested, though, I did not mention what you told me about the actual position.
7) In terms of the OLF they think that this is probably defeated politically as well as militarily in the Orrumo regions. In the context of the saying "Guerrillas are fish which swim in the water of the rest of the population" (Mao?) he made the point that the water was simply not there. Many guerrillas had even been captured by the farmers rather than by the army, and there was little evidence of any support being given by the civilian population to them. The results were much better than they had expected - and they judged this to be because the OLF had failed to capture the hearts and minds of the people. In fighting the OLF forces the army had deliberately only used hand weapons - and had not used heavy artillery or tanks (and the airforce was grounded), so that casualties amongst the OLF (and of course the civilian population) were minimised.
8) In terms of your economic group, he is very much in favour of it. He would like the donors to get together as a group to control the aid operations as far as possible themselves.
9) It looks very much as if Kassu Ilala will be the member of your group, but this may be better than you think since he is working very closely with the Prime Minister on the task forces - and indeed is taking over some of the PM's work so that the PM can complete his assignments for the Open University! So, as I suggested that the PM should be involved (since he is at the centre of these important developments), Kassu may be a reasonable second choice - since he too may be well informed and influential. I mentioned Abdul Megid Hussein, but the President said he was probably too involved in other projects. He added that all his best people were too overloaded.
I hope these notes are helpful. If you want any further information you can get me on my Addis number (551073) until Tuesday night. After that you can get me on my home number - 0044908679759.
Once more may I thank you for the time you have kindly made available to me during my stay here.
(David Mercer)
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