[2018] FUTURES
RESEARCH
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With my Ethiopian adventure behind me, and my work on the B885 course bedded down, my major research project at OUBS ultimately was to become the ‘Millennium Project’ - which in turn progressed to become the ‘Futures Observatory’:
0387 – Future Observatory 1 - The UK Millennium Project - the initial stages
of investigation
7227 - Proposal - Futures Observatory
- which eventually led to the sponsored research
Accordingly the later stages of the work were supported by a range of international bodies.
9109 – Futures Observatory 2 - And the European Commission - including the
EC, working for a group in Jacques Santerre's cabinet
9118 – Future Observatory 3 – US Millennium Project and WFS - but also with
our US counterpart
9106 – Future Observatory 4 – United Nations and others - and UNESCO
At the same time, I built a deal of influence by my growing influence on the media.
9200 – Future Observatory 5 – Media Relations
including
9172 – Television and Radio
9238 PR1 – Futures Observatory Press Cuttings
Coming out of the first (Millennium Project) stages of this was a book – ‘Future Revolutions’ - published by Orion, which predicted the course of the future to beyond 2025 AD:
6059 Chapter 1 - Revolutionary Times [6059T*]
6044 Chapter 2 Incremental Technology
6038 Chapter 4 - The Communications Revolution
6005 Chapter 5 - Society’s Winners
6062 Chapter 6 - And Just a Few Losers
6015 Chapter 7 - Portfolio Lives
6035 Chapter 8 - A Shared World
6094 Chapter 9 - The Death of Nations
6055 Chapter 11 - Revolutionary Pains
Some ten years later, the description of the 'current situation' can at times now seem rather dated; not least in respect of the changes the neo-cons have wrought upon the US. What is impressive, however, is that almost all these changes were - in one form or another - predicted to happen!
Supporting this work were a number of bibliographies and indices:
6100 Millennium Project (1990s) Bibliography
6101 Additional (Futures Observatory, 1999) Bibliography
6103 Economist Index from Millennium Project 1990s
Also based on the research results from the Futures Observatory, I tried to popularize the information in the form of eighteen Science Fiction stories. Regrettably only one of these - Internet Jockey/Investigator – was accepted for publication; and even then only on a website! The rest remain unpublished:
9044 - THE SPACE TRAVELLER'S TALE (part 1) - this is at heart a description
of life on a space colony
9020 - THE FAT HYENA - this
brings together the power of the Internet and
the growing power of the Third World
9038 - THE FAMILY AT CHRISTMAS
- this is essentially about the breakdown
of the family
9005 - THE CANYON - where this
is about the breakdown of the US in terms
of its underclasses
9062 - A MEMBER OF THE FAMILY -
this is above all a description
of my personal experiences in Ethiopia
9015 - HOME ON THE RANGE - this
is about the potential power of both tele-working and pressure groups
9035 - HALLELUJAH - in this I
describe the potential dangers of
fundamentalism
9094 - CAT'S EYES
- this is about terra-forming with comets
9046 - THE TOURIST - a short
autobiographical piece
9055 - THE MULTI-ARMED BANDIT -
in this I explore how police
operations against Internet crime may develop
9009 - THE SURVIVOR - this was
written before 9/11, but it graphically
predicts the essence of that event
9012 - BUBBLES - this is an
exploration of 'referenda' democracy
9006 - WOMAN POWER - this looks
at the extremes of lifestyle which may be
possible
9018 - JOCKY, JOCKY - this is
about a denizen of the new jungle of popular
Internet media
9100 - AN AGEING SWINGER - this
is deliberately constructed from two
separate sets of experiences, those with the BBC and those with
the SIS, mainly to hide the identities involved!
9013 - THE ENCHANTED ISLAND - this is another attempt to explore the
potential new lifestyles enabled by the Internet
9030 - THE SPACE TRAVELLER'S TALE contd.
9028 - THE SPACE TRAVELLER'S TALE contd. 2
The last book I wrote was commissioned by Wiley, as part of a two book deal for their new series. It was to have been the final comment on the actions of the individual which our research had suggested were needed to develop the full potential of that individual. Regrettably, when the dot.com boom collapsed - and their new series went with it – publication was cancelled. I still got the money, but the book – which in many respects was the conclusion of my work - never got an airing. So here it is:
9068 εvolution (unpublished): 1. Personal choices in
a network society, 2. Riding the tiger of change,
3. Fulfillment
9095 εvolution 2 (unpublished) - 4. Lifestyles and lifestages,
5. Portfolios of lifestyles,
6. The context - changing family, changing community, changing values
9031 εvolution 3 (unpublished) - 7. Community,
8. Working, and workable, futures, 9. A new model of employment
9079 εvolution 4 (unpublished) - 10. New skills and
investment in education, 11. More education,
12. Technological realities and economic myths,
13. Power and politics
7301 Journal Papers on the Future
7215 MEG93 - On a Clear Day You Can See the Future
7238 GELSENKIRCHEN - Predictable Futures
7297 Long Range Planning – Scenarios Made Easy
7277 BAM97 – Management Views
I then ‘published’ a number of papers (and contributions to conferences – in italic) describing the new theory and techniques we had developed:
7246 MEG96 Qualitative Research
7213 MEG98 - Long-Range Marketing
7280 Initial Draft – Simple Scenarios
7225 PhD4 – Simpler Scenarios
7211 Management Decision – Foreseeable
Future
7276 Management Decision – Robust Strategies in a Day
7207 Management Decision – Fear of the Future
7245 Marketing Practice – Long-Range Marketing
Subsequently we undertook significant amounts of survey research, with very large samples (much larger than anyone else, across the globe, was able to use), amongst OUBS alumni. The resulting publications (with, in addition, those included in my PhD in bold) were:
7294 MEG96 – A Certain Future
7230 Wilter Co-Pub - Removing Fear of Uncertainty
7228 Unpublished - Managing Future Expectations
7224 Future Research Quarterly - Scenarios to Robust Strategies
7278 Unpublished - Fear of the Future
7248 Futures – Future Quantified
7250 Industrial Management – Industry Scenarios
7271 Management Decision – Organisational Futures
Above all, however, the outcome was the new (Economic) Theory of Aggregated Expectations:
7216 Draft – Predicting The Future
7247 Econometrics, Paris 1998 – Aggregated Expectations
7270 Technological Forecasting – General Hypothesis of Aggregated Expectations
7252 Technological Forecasting – Determining Aggregated Expectations
7296 Unpublished Draft – Rational Models
7298 Unpublished Draft – Economic Models
As well as some recommendations in more specific fields:
7261 Foresight – Life-Long-Learning
Along with a largely unsuccessful attempt to widen interest in the subject to more popular audiences:
7203 Unpublished – Next 50 Years
7000 Unpublished – World in 2050
7269 Unpublished – Development of Society
7290 Unpublished – Economic and Political Lives
7222 Unpublished – Technological Growth
0212 The March Of Progress – electronically
7038 - Six Drivers (for 3M course at LBS)
At the end of all this – having had my viva in 2002 - I finally was granted my PhD two weeks after I retired in 2003!
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