2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
It may not be obvious from the newspaper headlines, but the world as a whole is a significantly more peaceful place than it has been for almost a century. What is more, this peace is generally the result of civilised behaviour between equals; between nation-states which recognise each other's rights; rather than one imposed by the superpowers - as the long peace during the nineteenth century was. As such it should be an even more stable, and enduring, feature.
The future of humankind is not, though, automatically guaranteed. Therefore the desire of our general groups to get into space, as one means of obtaining that guarantee, is not unrealistic. There are still thousands of nuclear warheads held ready for use or in arsenals - especially in those of the increasingly unstable United States. These are still an omnipresent threat. It only requires one finger to stray and humankind might be thrown back to the dark ages. Our participants worried, in particular, about the proliferation of nations with nuclear capacity. Lee Kuan Yew - ex-prime-minister of Singapore - even suggests that Japan may eventually abandon its opposition and join the nuclear club.
On the other hand, the reduction in arms, especially those in the old USSR, may mean that the whole of humanity would no longer be destroyed. Indeed, the nuclear threat, which has hung over the world since the middle of the 20th century, is now much reduced. Not least, the break up of the old Soviet block has inserted an effectively neutral buffer zone across the middle of Europe - removing the traditional trigger points for conflict between NATO and Russia. Not only that, but global conflict is now also almost totally absent; of the recent wars, only a handful have even been between nations, where most have been civil wars within nations.
In global terms, at least, the world is now more peaceful than it has been for a century, and much safer from nuclear destruction than it ever has been since the dawn of the atomic age. The best assumption is that it will become ever more peaceful - with very few wars between nations.
Despite the recent increase in war-mongering by the US, this is still generally true. Indeed, the threat of US intervention may serve to discourage other potential offenders. The damage caused by the US hegemony is political.
Indeed, peace may be a more fundamental; state than we are led to believe for, as Hazel Henderson says, "...according to much new archaeological and palaeontological evidence, humans lived in small egalitarian groups in pre-history." She also notes that "The conventional history of conquests, military leaders, and the lives of the powerful has been largely indifferent to the experiences of the great majority of ordinary beings."
Jack Mendelsohn - deputy director of the Arms Control Association in Washington - says that "At present 19 developing states possess theatre ballistic missiles", but adds, further, the somewhat more optimistic footnote that "...only three - India, Israel and North Korea - have actually produced or flight-tested missiles with ranges of more than 1,000 kilometres"; so the threat, for the present anyway, remains largely local.
Andrew Krepenivich - adjunct professor of strategic studies at John Hopkins University - reports that the arms race is continuing and the weapons suppliers have their own long-range planners, who are working to even longer timescales that the rest of us; trying to see what military technologies will be needed in forty or more years time. "Three areas of technical progress offer the potential to revolutionize the nature of warfare. All are derived, in whole or in part, from the revolution in information...First, there is the potential to locate, identify, and track a far greater number of targets, over a greater area, over a much longer time, and with much greater effectiveness...Widening dramatically the 'information gap' between friendly and enemy forces will be of increasing importance in future operations...Second...are major improvements in the range, accuracy, and lethality of conventional munitions...Third, advanced computer-simulation techniques are being developed to train and equip forces far more effectively than ever before."
Nicholas Kittries explains that "...most states are not the homogeneous nation-states called for by eighteenth- and nineteenth-century visionaries. They are, instead, pluralistic admixtures made up of diverse tribal, ethnic, racial, and linguistic communities...In many instances nothing short of a total dismantlement of the compounded states offers a realistic solution..." This was previously an unthinkable solution but, where the nation-state is now being replaced by the federal superstate, reforming the regions might become much more acceptable.
9 May 2003
hits
Copyright © 2005 Future Observatory