2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
With the growing knowledge of our bodies, and especially of the mechanisms within the brain, we are likely to be able to develop devices - most probably in the form of drugs - which alter the way our brain operates at any particular time. These may offer us the prospect of being more productive at work; enhancing our learning capabilities, say, or just our ability to get on with the more annoying of our fellow workers - first Diazepam and then Prozac have already offered help to the more stressed out of us! Above all, though, these may offer us new pleasures. Heightening our senses, as Ecstasy does, or dulling them, as Heroin often does. The problem, again, is probably not a technical one - new (illegal) designer drugs are constantly appearing - but a social and moral one. It is likely that we will have to come to terms with our so far universal rejection of the leisure uses of all such mind-altering drugs. In view of the changing nature of our society, coupled with the attraction of such drugs and the growing use of them by large sections of the population, it seems likely that society's view will change; and their use will at least be decriminalised - which then poses problems as to how we are to best use them!
More powerful, but safer, mind-altering drugs are likely to be developed - and legalised - for use at work and, especially, at play. The main question will then be how we are to best use them.
The general climate, outside of the US, is becoming more liberal. A number of countries, including the UK, would like to relax the laws on the softer drugs; though few have so far formally done this (as opposed to turning a blind eye to what is happening on the streets). The exception, as in many things, is the US. Its vastly expanded prison population is dominated by those convicted for possession; as its laws – contrary to the rest of the world – get ever tougher, and its military adventures (especially in Afghanistan) expand the drug growing areas! Unfortunately, US pressure dominates the international criminal scene – which is why many countries can’t put into law what they do in practice!
This is a topic which is very sensitive. As a result, it is only a few, particularly brave, futurologists who are prepared to go on the record about it! Though it will not have quite as important an impact as some of the other factors, it is still an important one and needs to be debated - as our own groups clearly believed.
Joseph Coates, for example, suggests that "Brain-mind manipulation techniques to influence or control emotions, learning, sensory acuity, memory and other psychological states will be available and in widespread use."
According to Mark Ward, "...a careful balance has to be maintained between the size and number of neurons and the blood vessels which nourish them." Barry Minkin also suggests that "Faced with information explosion and sensory overload in a world of constantly increasing complexity and competition, memory sharpeners and increased thinking ability become imperative." He goes on to suggest that the ‘smart-drug’ market will exceed $2 billion per year before 2000.
Pearson & Cochrane - at British Telecomm (BT) - say that, by 2020, "Brain and mind manipulation will allow control of emotions, learning, senses, memory and other psychological phenomena". Such drugs usage may, in any case, become a necessity where, according to other researchers from BT Laboratories, "...we have reached our maximum information-processing capacity, or at least are within 20 per cent of it."
15 May 2003
Other pages you might like to consider are:
5046 MEDICINE, 5049 COSTS OF UNDERCLASSES
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