2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
One specific form of emerging new 'region' is provided by the economically powerful city; which is, indeed, so rich that it can - and does - aspire to be a state in its own right. To date such city states have already been in possession of such a status - the classic examples are Singapore and Hong Kong. But in future other cities may want to rule themselves - albeit within the federal framework of the super-state to which they will by then belong.
As yet, examples of this development are not obvious; the most obviously viable individual cities, such as Los Angeles and Rotterdam, seem very firmly tied into their national infra-structures. On the other hand, as regions begin to gain some degree of independence, the larger cities - such as London - may also seek more control over their own affairs; especially in terms of establishing themselves (as have Singapore and Hong Kong) as commercial centres for the regions which surround them.
With the emergence of greater regional autonomy, within federal supra-states, some cities may also demand home rule; in order to further their prospects as commercial centres for their surrounding regions.
On the other hand, although London now has its own independent mayor, the degree of independence allowed has so far been strictly limited - so the emergence of city states may be stifled by the regional governments which need their economic benefits for the wider region.
Looking at it in terms of the economic impacts, Kenichi Ohmae says that "Region-states are the natural economic zones in a borderless world because, by definition, the demands of the global economy shape their contours. They must be large enough to provide an attractive market for leading consumer products but small enough for their citizens to share economic and consumer interests...They tend to have between 5 million and 20 million people. The population range is broad, but the extremes are clear; not half a million, not 50 million..."
John Petersen - perhaps rather optimistically - suggests that in the near future ('by 2000') "...trading blocks [he suggests a 'Group of Seventy' to replace the 'Group of Seven'] will have taken over from national governments as the new focus for international trade."
4 April 2003
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