2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Perhaps the greatest challenge, in the medium term, to the global culture of Hollywood comes from religious fundamentalism in general, and from Islam in particular. These various religions may be in a position to offer very positive contributions to a combined culture; where the greatest weakness of the Hollywood version is its grounding in the vacuous ethics of the consumer culture at its worst - with little to offer in the way of true ethical values. The Islamic approach to business, with its emphasis on the rights of the community, may for instance provide an antidote to the pure worship of Mammon. In this - very positive - context, fundamentalism could be seen, at one level, to be a valuable antidote to the trivialism and unreality of the Hollywood culture.
As yet, though, much of fundamentalism - especially the Islamic variety - does not just seek to modify the overall culture - but to overthrow it. In addition, for the mass of its followers as opposed to its (often fanatical) religious leaders, it is frequently motivated by a reaction against Western (US) imperialism. Thus, it often offers a more powerful, and more rigorous, basis for nationalism than mere patriotism - at a time where national patriotism (as opposed to ethnic or tribal versions, which offer another focus) is on the wane. It offers much more than mere jingoism; which might be bought off by another dose of consumer spending. It offers a chance to rediscover national identity, combined with a heady brew of righteousness and the prospect of a jihad - war without any moral reservations, and indeed the possibility of going straight to heaven if killed. It is, literally, a God-sent opportunity for some emerging nations which have no other easy alternatives. It is paradoxical - in terms of the 'fundamentalist' explanation - that the country which is often seen to be the greatest threat, Iran, has a modern constitution; one not based totally in Islamic readings. In fact, it is more likely that Algeria - largely ignored by the western media (outside of France) - will prove the greatest threat to the established order. Its fundamentalists, increasingly supported by the majority of an oppressed population, are not constrained by modern ideas.
Fundamentalism is, of course, almost inevitably based upon a religion of one form or another; though the form itself can be all important. For instance, the majority Islamic group, the Sunni Muslims sometimes fight (with great venom) Shia Muslims (who represent the 15% minority, but are typically more fundamental in their views). The Protestant Christians in Northern Ireland have long seen their 'papist' (Catholic) rivals as - literally - nothing short of the devil in disguise. Such religious fervour can be infectious, as the Bosnian conflict in the mid 1990s has demonstrated. In Mediaeval times, the power of Islam won it an empire which covered the whole of the Mediterranean, but it is not the only religion to countenance holy war - the Jews in Israel are driven by equally powerful beliefs - with equally problematic outcomes, especially where they confront an similarly fervent Islam. The religious content cannot, therefore, be discounted; once the jihad has begun. Even so, it is worth repeating that the conflicts need not be so destructive; if the inequalities upon which they are initially based are addressed before they escalate too far. Above all fundamentalist conflict thrives on inequalities. If the developed world continues to impose such inequalities it must expect fundamentalist terrorism and wars to spread. If it addresses the problems of inequality it might contain this spread.
In the political context, fundamentalism - especially that espoused by some fanatical Islamic groups - can perhaps be best seen as a reaction against the inequalities arising from Western imperialism. It offers more power, and righteousness, than mere nationalism. It may spread, as the reaction against such inequalities grows, unless the developed nations address the disease of inequality rather than the symptoms of the jihad it provokes.
Few western commentators, including futurologists, address the problem of fundamentalism in other than black and white terms as the new enemy. This is to ignore the complexities of the challenge offered.
The US 'attack' on Islamic countries has heightened the divide; even in those countries which have secular governments. On the other side of the coin, the capture of the US government (which does have vast numbers of weapons of mass destruction) by christian fundamentalists poses even more alarming challenges for world peace.
9 May 2003
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