2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
5036 EUROPEAN UNION
In the West, at least, the most dynamic 'nation' will be the European Union (EU); despite its many setbacks, and the dubious future predicted by many commentators. On the other hand, our groups were somewhat schizophrenic about the topic. More than two thirds of them rated it of high priority - but the same number looked forward to a 'United States of Europe' as saw the 'common market failing'! In terms of history, this is a some what paradoxical outcome - since many of its members are ex-colonial powers which should be in the same sort of long-term decline as the United States. Even more paradoxical, perhaps, is that the strength of the EU is emerging from an idea rather than from its resources! It is true that the EU does have the richest internal market in the world, and will continue to hold this position for some time. It is also a market which still has considerable growth potential within its borders - and, unlike the US, is not in economic retreat. Moreover, it can increase this potential even further by incrementally adding the nations on its borders, especially those to the East. Thus, Christopher Patten - at that time governor of Hong Kong, having previously been a member of the UK government, but now one of its commissioners - points out that for the first, America is no longer the world's biggest market-place; the EC conducts a third of global trade.
The richness of the idea enshrined in the EU, and its importance for the world as a whole, is the real driver however. Thus, the EU is the first continental-scale federation to be created by the voluntary decisions of its member states; as opposed to by conquest. There have undeniably been problems with the process, which have been very widely reported - often sensationally so - but these pale into insignificance compared with the scale of its successes. Hundreds of millions of people, in tens of previously independent nations speaking almost as many languages, have peacefully come together to form first an economic union - a major step in its own right - and then to form a political one - an unprecedented step. Thus is emerging not just a major new trading block but potentially the biggest super-power of all; which might ultimately lead the way to true world government.
The power of the idea may be such that the progress of the EU, in terms of population coverage at least, will escalate dramatically. It may well take in Russia, to stretch from the Atlantic to the Pacific the long way. Surprisingly, in view of the dramatic break-up of the USSR, almost half the groups were still worried about Russian expansionism; more than saw the EU, or at least Germany, focusing on expansion into Eastern Europe.
On the other hand, the EU may even capture the emerging nations of Africa, which have long had affinities (albeit colonial ones) with individual nations which now belong to the EU. It may even ultimately take in India, again with colonial links - and an inevitable wish to avoid being out-maneuvered by China in its own immediate sphere of influence - though it just is possible that India will join Indonesia to form a fourth alternative. Ultimately the 'EU' may come to include as much as a third, perhaps even as much as a half, of the world's population; much of it previously part of the British Empire, and to set the pattern for much of the rest.
At the end of the 1990s I added the note that: “The EU has now come through potentially the most risky period of its history. It has successfully implemented the federal moves set in train by Maastricht (most notably in the guise of the Euro). It has started on the process of enlargement. Most important, it has successfully started to redevelop its institutions (including even the Common Agricultural Policy, CAP, which was the most controversial of these), so that it can actually enlarge - and can manage itself effectively. It now has the confidence necessary to become the world's leading political body, and will soon challenge the US for leadership of the developed world, on ideological grounds as well as economic power.”
In fact, the hegemonic tendencies of the US which have now emerged may accelerate the integration of the EU's existing states (with even the UK ultimately signing up to the Euro) and attract new ones; though some, such as Turkey, which are US supporters may find their path to EU membership more difficult.
Michael Aho - Senior Economist at Prudential Securities Inc. - mirrors the views of a number of commentators when he says "...the sheer size of the emerging unified market will give Europe a larger and more powerful profile on the world stage." He is, perhaps, rather more controversial when he adds "The Euro-optimism that has supplanted the Euro-pessimism of the past adds a swagger to the European character as it plays out its role."
Michel Godet - one of the world's leading (scenario) forecasters - puts the dramatic scale of the changes in context when he points out that "For instance, the population of [the whole of the old] Europe in 2020 would be comparable with the population of [the single nation of] Nigeria or Brazil."!
Christopher Patten - at that time governor of Hong Kong, having previously been a member of the UK government - pointed out that "For the first time, America is no longer the world's biggest market-place. The EC conducts a third of global trade. It is the biggest producer in industries like pharmaceuticals, machine tools and engineering goods." To which he adds "Europe benefits from a vast intellectual infra-structure and has the best educated and highly skilled workforce anywhere..." Although he starts off with the important caveat that "There is less of a sense of Europeanness than one might have hoped for..." Christopher Patten goes on to say "...there is a sense of cultural solidarity and a more developed capacity than most others possess for political creativity and for finding benign ways to reconcile the diverse and changing appetites of plural societies."
The Group of Lisbon note "...political integration today is non-existent, with the unique exception of the European Community countries." As we will see, though, it is a very important exception.
Jim Northcott suggests that, despite the cries of some national politicians, "...over a period the present federation of states may evolve into a federal state - a European government" He adds, in support of this view, "Such a development will not necessarily prove unwelcome; indeed in a recent opinion poll there was a majority of 4 - 1 in favour of a European government in the Union as a whole and a 5 - 2 majority in favour in Britain."
Hamish McRae, on the other hand, says "The most important difference between the Europe of the 1990s and that of 2020 is that people will have realised that Europe is not progressing towards some goal of greater unity, and that closeness of association of European states ebbs and flows over the centuries."
Lester Thurrow points the way at a more basic level "Keep an eye on Brussels. The rules for world trade are currently being written there for two reasons: the European economy is now the world’s largest, and Brussels is in the business of writing rules - nobody else is."
Perhaps global moves will take place even earlier than we expect. The Group of Lisbon, for instance, point out that "...the example of the European Union could stimulate similar processes of integration elsewhere, particularly in Africa and South America."
Even so, Naisbitt & Aburdene were probably premature when they suggested, in 1988, that "As we turn to the next century, we will witness the linkage of North America, all Europe, and Japan to form a golden triangle of free trade." The new WTO (World Trade Organisation) has finally emerged from the last GATT round, but its remit hardly justifies the term ' golden triangle' for even part of its purview.
9 May 2003
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