2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
The Nigerian dilemma in the 1990s illustrates a problematic set of legacies for ex-colonies. Reflecting processes also at work elsewhere, it was the victim of a form of post-colonial corruption indulged in by Western firms. Having achieved independence, the politicians in such - generally very poor - countries have too often been subverted by bribes from overseas companies trying to gain control of their country's resources and markets. It has been argued by some that there have been cultural reasons for this - though the only links seem to be a shared colonial past - but what is beyond doubt is that many Western firms have wholeheartedly joined in such conspiracies (and their culture cannot be blamed for this!).
This is a problem for a number of Third World countries. Negotiating exploitation of mineral rights on behalf of one Third World country, I was told, by the senior management of one of the few reputable mining conglomerates, that the proposed tax levels (around 70%, on the advice of a UN agency) were almost exactly double the commercial rate. The explanation of the fact, that almost every other African country also quoted 70%, turned out to be, as they patiently explained, that this allowed, in practice, a commercial rate of 35% to be achieved - but with 25% going to the country, and 10% to the politicians who approved this subversion of their country's economic wealth!
It is not clear if corruption is on the increase world-wide; though the frequency of media reports to this effect would seem to indicate that this might be the case. My own suspicion is that the increased level of reports in fact reflects the very opposite trend. The population in general is becoming more intolerant of such corruption - and are now complaining about practices they would previously have ignored; and, if so, that is the one positive sign in a generally bad picture.
Perhaps a slower, stage approach to growth might be less fraught. William Overholt - Managing Director of Bankers Trust in Hong Kong - stresses that, in China, Deng's initial farm reforms doubled the income of China's farmers, winning the support of a group that comprises over eight hundred million people and a power base which is much less susceptible to corruption. The government of Ethiopia, with which I worked, successfully adopted the same approach - first growing the income of the more than 90 per cent of the population who were subsistence farmers. Its subsequent national plan emphasised the same theme. Its first priority for the country was 'Agriculture led industry'.
Corruption is rife, especially in the Third World - where it holds back economic development, and reported incidents seem to be on the increase - even in the developed world. If this increase is genuine, it will undermine development in all societies. If, as seems at least as possible, it reflects an increasing level of public distaste for corrupt practices we may see bribery and corruption decline; to the great advantage of all.
This is an area where there has been a spectacular change, in that - to the list of third world countries - now must be added the United States. This is partly due to its multinationals, such as Enron and Global Crossing, whose accounting frauds have been spectacular. In the main it is due to the US government itself, which has chosen (not least in Guantanamo Bay and Iraq) to abandon adherence to international law; and to use its might to achieve its selfish ends.
4 April 2003
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