2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Gene manipulation techniques can be extended to human genetics. Indeed, in cruder forms, we might see something like this happen; in some countries, significantly more boys than girls may be born during the first decades of the 21st century - following an age-old tradition which has now been given a mechanism for implementation. Following a more recent tradition, perhaps some of these may be taller than they might have been - since taller men have more successful careers! It is likely that both of these trends will, fortunately, disappear when the full impact of female power is realised!
It would, in theory, be possible to go much faster in the development of Homo Sapiens - to create super-strong men, or super-intelligent ones - but it is much more questionable whether this will in practice happen by genetic manipulation. For one reason, the interaction of human genes, especially those controlling intelligence, is so complex that it would not be possible - within the foreseeable future - to easily predict the outcomes. The super-strong might be subject to crippling auto-immune diseases. The super-intelligent might be impotent. Thus, the parents of the baby to be are more likely to worry about negative defects than positive advances; and this will result in considerable conservatism, in terms of opposition to any changes, at the level of the individual. It is possible that some governments may explore the problem, in great secrecy, as a new form of strategic weaponry. But that too will not have major implications for human genetics as a whole; in the short and medium term. The main reason, in the longer term though, may be that the form of symbiosis with IT systems may offer a much more dramatic - and much more (safely) predictable - form of human evolution.
In effect, where in other animals it might be largely an economic issue, in humans such genetic engineering is a moral issue - bringing into question exactly what is human. The easy way out is not to pose the question - and this will, I suspect, be what happen over the first half of the 21st century. This will be reinforced by another human instinct, that of self-preservation. If we really could create a new race of super-humans, how many would want to consign ourselves - as a result - to the category of second-class citizens? In the short and medium term, I suggest that few, apart from fanatics, would choose to do so. In the longer term, however, it may be an issue with which humanity may be confronted. It was certainly seen as a very important issue by many of those involved in our research.
For the first half of the 21st century, it is unlikely that there will be major developments in human genetic engineering - in terms of producing new human beings, rather than repairing existing ones. This will probably not be the result of scientific limitations, but will be on moral grounds; based upon self-preservation and self-interest. It will, though, continue to be a very controversial issue.
Futurologists rarely look at the moral issues raised by the prospect of widespread genetic engineering. Hospital ethics committees, on the other hand, take a very different view - and it is they who will control the research on patients.
As, in the 21st century, these techniques have become available for use on humans, it is indeed the use for curing illnesses which has come to the fore.
5 May 2003
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