2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Parallel with the political power gradually accruing to individuals will come increasing commercial power. For most of the past half-century, the leading suppliers to the consumer markets have recognised the importance of the consumer; under the compendium 'discipline' of marketing. Unfortunately, with the technology of the time, these suppliers could only conduct their marketing activities in terms of groups of individuals; and in terms of average needs and wants - discovered by marketing research based on sample surveys.
Most recently, many of them have been forced to abandon even this limited dialogue, to meet the needs of the increasingly powerful retailers; who have claimed - with some justification - that they were closer to the customer.
This retailer power will, though, probably only have a lifetime of a couple of decades or so; in its raw form, at least. Database marketing, which requires that the supplier tracks large amounts of data on each individual customer's activities (and which is to marketing what networking is to communications), will introduce the dialogue with the consumer - this time on an individual basis.
Increasingly, therefore, suppliers - of all types - will hold such details of individual customers on massive computer databases. They will tailor their offerings, or at least the way they are promoted, not just to the group average but to the individual's specific needs; though this is likely to be a progressive trend as the groups they currently market to are split into ever smaller segments.
This will offer significant competitive advantage to those suppliers who invest in the requisite technology and information. In particular, it may - in the short term - further reinforce the position of strong retailers; since they, with their club schemes have the most direct access to large numbers of consumers - and can spread their investment across far more product categories.
Database marketing, creating a quasi-dialogue with individual customers, will bring major changes to the field of marketing in general, and of consumer marketing in particular. Retailers will be especially well placed to take advantage of this; and to consolidate their growing power.
Since this was written, we have had the dot.com boom and subsequent bust. The first was one of those 'moral panics' which from time to time afflict the business community. Tulipmania and the South Sea Bubble were previous examples where investors collectively lost their mind! The inevitable outcome was obvious to us and, with just a few simple calculations, should have been obvious to everyone else; Time Warner paid nearly $20,000 a head for AOL's barely loyal members (and has since seen its own value decimated as the mania came to an end)! As yet, though, the bust has gone too far in terms of pessimism. Our earlier predictions should still come true in the mid- to long-term.
4 April 2003
Other pages you might like to consider are:
5033 CONSUMER CLUBS, 5016 CONSUMER VOTES,5209 TRADER (IT) AGENTS, 5047 CONSUMER DIALOGUE, 5021 COMMUNITY INTERMEDIARIES
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