2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
In the long term the establishment will be unable to resist change. In the shorter term, though, its response will determine whether the transition is painful, or even as bloody as have previous ones. Alvin Toffler described some the historical precedent where the transition from the First Wave to Second Wave civilization was one lone, blood-drenched drama of wars, revolts, famines, forced migrations, coups d'etat and calamities.On the other hand, Francis Fukayama, in his sometimes misunderstood treatise 'The End of History', notes that in the democratic transitions in Southern Europe, Latin America and South Africa there was not a single instance in which the old regime was forced from power through violent upheaval or revolution. In each case it was the voluntary decision on part of at least certain members of the old regime to give up power in favour of a democratically elected government. The even more dramatic revolutions in Eastern Europe were just as bloodless. Perhaps the modern establishment is different; and we will not see blood on the streets this time.
The failure of the establishment around the world to recognise the need for fundamental change will be exacerbated by their retreat into various forms of groupthink - in which they cannot see, let alone deal, with the new facts. This may result in considerable tensions, and increasing levels of political violence, in some nations - most notably in those countries attempting to move to democracy, but also in the United States.
With the very honourable exception of Alvin Toffler, most futurologists do not seem to recognise the inevitable existence of 'revolutionary pains' - and, even if they do, they certainly do not link these to the confusion which currently surrounds us. Indeed, those futurologists focusing on the short term often take these transitional pains as the starting point for their analyses. It is important, therefore, that we do separate the symptoms from the underlying causes.
Stares & Hoe in which they "...posit that the history of America [is] a succession of generational biographies...", based on four types of 'generation' which repeat sequentially, based on this John Petersen predicts that "A culture war will develop between the Boomers [the group born between 1943 and 1960] and Thirteenth Generation [those born between 1961 and 1981] because the Boomers will push an austere and stripped-down version of their New Age morality into mainstream life."
Alvin Toffler[a] describes some of the historical precedents "The transition from the First Wave to Second Wave civilization was one long, blood-drenched drama of wars, revolts, famines, forced migrations, coups d'é tat and calamities." He continues "Today the stakes are much higher, the time shorter, the acceleration faster, the dangers even greater." He then succinctly sums up the position "Much depends on the flexibility and intelligence of today's elites
15 May 2003
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