2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
What makes the 'revolutionary pains' especially important is the reaction to them by the establishment. Alvin Toffler explained that 'Second Wave' elites fight to retain or reinstate an unsustainable past because they gained wealth and power from it.
It now seems to be an inevitable feature of almost all governments, communist just as much as Western, that they are composed of a self-perpetuating elite - which holds itself separate, and aloof, from the general population. This aloof elite extends beyond politics to encompass all aspects of power; business, the law, and - too often - even trade unions.
The character of this 'establishment' seems to have been set in the days when power was the prerogative of the aristocracy. Thus, in its eyes at least, power is deemed to be naturally the property of the chosen minority; originally those selected by the king, or those who had seized it by force from him. When, eventually, the representatives of the masses gained some degree of power they were frequently welcomed by the existing establishment and - fatally - almost as frequently became part of it. Alternatively, even when even they overthrew it, they all too often chose to imitate many of its habits. Power, in the model they thus chose to accept, flowed down from the leaders of society, not up from the mass of members of that society. Illustrating the point, this process is so entrenched in the United Kingdom that government in theory (and sometimes in practice) still only acts on behalf of the crown (the monarchy) - in which true constitutional power is still vested (as it is, in the United States, with the President) - not on behalf of the electorate.
The ability of the establishment, world-wide, to absorb change was graphically exemplified for me by one situation in East Africa, where - for the best part of a century, until just a few years ago - the Amhara tribe ran an empire covering many other tribes. The lowest ranking of these tribes was the Orrumo - who were treated almost as slaves. Yet, even amongst these, the mostcapable were - albeit with considerable difficulty - able to join the ranks of the establishment. The important fact, in the context of this section, was that they then proudly signalled their new-found status by abandoning their Orrumo origins to become Amhara; and thereafter lived the rest of their lives as Amhara - despite their true ethnic origins!
The strength of the Western establishment, in particular, has been, therefore, not just in their cohesion as elites, but in their ability to absorb potential opponents - a much tidier solution than their elimination, as practised by some dictatorships. They have had no difficulty in persuading new members to join; for the rewards on offer were, and still are, high. These rewards were not just the financial benefits, or status, but included self-respect - not least in terms of the awe in which your erstwhile companions in the lower orders now held you. But they also included self-fulfilment - you had demonstrated your value to society by becoming part of the higher order of things.
The concomitant weakness, which has only recently emerged, is in the resulting blindness of the establishment to almost all matters outside of itself. Whilst the establishment alone held power such weaknesses did not matter, but now - in the name of democracy (originally a convenient device for castigating communist governments, but ultimately turned into a petard upon which the establishment has now hoist itself) - that power has in large part shifted to the masses! One man one vote means just that, once the masses have been instructed so; and they have, now, learned that lesson well.
It is these problems of the establishment, rather than those of the masses, which have led to many of the dilemmas being encountered in the crisis decades at the end of the 20th century.
The current best example is that of the Bush Presidency. Despite having lost the battle for the popular vote (albeit by a small margin) and having been awarded the presidency by a dubious Supreme Court decision (based on what might be considered gerrymandering in his brother's state), George Bush Jr. ruled as it he had won a landslide - assuming he had been given a mandate for change by everyone. This confidence (literally) trick was a success, which even let him go to war against the wishes of most of the rest of the world. It even allowed him to win a second terms; albeit against a weak opponent. Above all, it showed just how powerful is the 'office' itself!
21 April 2003
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