2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY

5086 EXPECTATIONS

Our evidence shows that the most stable 'predictions' are largely to be derived from the expectations which emerge research. The main processes involved in these expectations can be, and should be, managed; to the advantage of individuals, organisations, governments and humanity as a whole.

Thus, the first concept is that the future can now be predicted; as long as you properly understand the expectations of those - many - who will create it by their decisions. The corollary is that their expectations shape that future; and if you can influence those expectations you can influence the shape of the future.

Thus, the first concept, upon which much of the material on the database was based, is that the future can now be predicted; as long as you properly understand the expectations of those - many - who will create it by their decisions. The corollary is that their expectations shape that future; and if you can influence those expectations you can influence the shape of the future.

The fundamental basis for this new capability is that the future is, in general, no longer constrained by the availability of scarce resources. The future is, thus, now determined by social decisions, and the prospective outcome of these - otherwise often unseen - decisions can be observed in the expectations of those involved. The concepts are encapsulated in the Rule of 321:

RULE OF THREE-TWO-ONE

Three Assumptions:
#1 - The future of humanity is, in general, no longer constrained by any significant shortage of resources.
#2 - Accordingly, that future is now being progressively determined by social decisions, taken not just by a few leaders but by millions of their citizens, taking billions of small decisions as part of their daily lives.
#3 - The general, longer-term, framework within which these specific, individual decisions is taken is largely provided by the individuals' expectations of what the future holds for them.

Two Outcomes:
#1 - If you can accurately measure these 'expectations' as to future developments, you can, to a large extent, as accurately predict the most likely form of that future; based on present conditions.
#2 - If you can shape these expectations, by whatever political or marketing processes available to you, you can equally shape that future - and bend it away from the line it is currently following.

One Philosophy:
# - Humanity has the right, and duty, to positively shape its own future.

This does not replace the more conventional approaches to the future. We are careful to stress in our consultancy work that it is just part of the overall planning work. It indicates the way forward, in terms of robust strategies which will safeguard the long-term survival of organisations, which is complementary to the optimal strategies to be adopted in the shorter-term. Even then it does not replace the other ways of looking at the long-term future. Richard Slaughter’s ‘Foresight’ approach is typical of many more conventional approaches "...foresight expands the boundaries of perception forward in at least four ways. First, by assessing possible consequences of actions, decisions etc. Second, by anticipating problems before they occur. Third, by considering the present implications of future events. Fourth, by envisioning desired aspects of future societies. " Principles such as these are fundamental to obtaining the different views of the future which underpin the best long-range planning. On the other hand, where he claims "I do not believe the future can be predicted, other then in trivial ways", we would claim that our expectations-based approach does allow us to map the current course society is setting towards that future. That does not mean that we will never change that course; indeed, the great strength of the ‘Aggregated Expectations Hypothesis’ is that it allows us to be much more effective in making the changes we desire - exactly as Richard Slaughter would wish.

7 May 2003

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