2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
In the short term the number of small wars - within countries not between them (if we exclude the hegemonic ambitions of the US ) - has escalated. This is probably, in part, due to the prospect of freedom which has been dangled in front of them by the spectacular collapse of the USSR - a potential for freedom now also recognised by those under other hegemonies. In the main, however, this sudden surge has probably been the result of the release of the pressures, on supposedly independent nations, which were previously applied by the superpowers as an integral part of the Cold War. Thus, in previous decades, both superpowers had their list of client governments; which they supported to such an extent that these were able to suppress their internal opponents. When the end of the Cold War removed the need to underwrite the stability of these client governments, their position became much less tenable; the repressed oppositions quickly recognised this fact, and issued their inevitable challenges.
If this is the reason behind most of the current wars, and this does seem likely - even if it does not account for all of them, this surge in local wars should soon start to subside.
The recent surge in civil wars is probably a function of the release of pressures - previously applied by the superpowers to their client governments - following the end of the Cold War. Accordingly, the number of such small wars should, slowly, subside.
9 May 2003
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