2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Regrettably, the traditional political parties are determined to keep power in the hands of a few, who they believe are their friends and supporters. The changes will, therefore, probably have to wait for the final breakdown of the current systems. The electorate will need to convincingly destroy the existing party system - which, however, they are now doing with some relish!
Once that change in attitude takes place, though, it becomes largely self-perpetuating. Clearly the electorate should welcome their new involvement in the political process, but - in my experience - the elected will members gain just as much. They will no longer have to fight to impose their party line - often against all logic not just against the electorate. They will simply have to do what is best for their electors. This turns out to be a very fulfilling role for most members - who, despite their later adoption of more corrupt views and practices, typically enter politics as a vocation.
My most direct experience of what is possible came as a result of my election to be a borough (city) councillor. Despite being a member of an opposition party, that representing a residents association, I was eventually able to persuade the members of the ruling party to take their decisions non-politically. As a result, the councillors, even those most steeped in the party tradition, blossomed. As they stepped up to the challenge of actually representing their constituents rather than their party, they found the task easier than they had expected, and certainly much more personally fulfilling.
Less directly, I have observed much the same process put in place - with equal effect - at national level in a Third World country; though the there, which took the brave step, was at the time a military junta which had the comfort of massive military power at its disposal! Even so, that government did not later pay the price most politicians fear. Despite its 'bravery' it has since been elected, in the country's first democratic elections - supervised by the UN, with more than 90% of the vote!
The caveat I must make concerns the timescales. At local government it took me more than five years of continuous effort before all the changes were in place - despite the fact that such community politics are a more natural development at this local level of government. I do not know how long it will take at the national level, but - in line with the lengthy period required for cultural change to have significant impact in any organisation (which offers a reasonable parallel) - I would expect it to take at least ten years! This poses a major problem, where most governments are limited to, at most, a the five year horizon which is their term of office. It takes a brave, and powerful, government - or a long-lasting coalition to look a decade ahead in this manner; and the one I have described was one of the very few to do so!
To achieve the desired attitude change, whereby governments genuinely want to listen to their electorates, will probably require the destruction - by an exasperated electorate - of the existing political parties; and this process may already be under way!
Few other futurologists, and few in our groups, choose to address the possibility of the destruction of the existing political structures. This may be because they expect that these structures will endure forever, or it may - more likely - be because of the fear of a particularly worrying, unknown aspect of the future.
15 May 2003
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