2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Much has been made of the potential problems which might be caused by mass migration from Third World countries to developed nations; especially to Europe - from both East and South. The US is already being inundated with illegal Mexican immigrants and even in the United Kingdom, though the numbers are much smaller and are positively needed to balance the population, such ‘asylum seekers’ are feared by a significant part of the population. Our groups considered that such migration might increase to the level where it could cause dramatic problems in a number of regions - in terms of the developed nations on the receiving end of it.
On the other hand, their optimism - elsewhere - about the future of the Third World might point to the situation being defused by the improvements in the home countries of these potential immigrants. The position would be considerably aided if the developed countries themselves increased aid significantly to these countries. Fred Bergsten gives the very relevant example of the old Federal Republic of Germany which realised it could avoid a deluge of East Germans only be paying huge subsidies to induce them to stay at home. This policy certainly worked, at a horrendous cost, but maybe still at a lower cost than the alternative.
John Petersen goes as far as suggesting "The Mediterranean will become a veritable flotilla...Illegal aliens can no longer be stopped by traditional border controls on entry roads and airports"; a nightmare which haunts the visions of many western conservatives. He also notes the very relevant point - albeit in his case about migration from the countryside to the cities (another major problem area) - "The main reason why cities are pulling in migrants from the countryside is not the lure of the jackpot, but rural unemployment caused by improvements in agricultural productivity. The migrants would rather have the chance of a job in the city than the certainty of unemployment in the country side
Fred Bergsten gives the very relevant example "...the old Federal Republic of Germany realised it could avoid a deluge of East Germans only be paying huge subsidies to induce them to stay at home." This policy certainly worked, at a horrendous cost, but maybe still at a lower cost than the alternative.
The costs may not, in fact, be so high. John Parker, again, adds the footnote that "...most rural migrants...wait until they see a chance of finding work, often with the help of family or friends who are already in the city. A study of migrants from Punjab in New Delhi found that 70% had found jobs within one month of arriving, 94% within two months. Anecdotal evidence from western cities suggests that the same thing is happening there."
9 May 2003
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