2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
It has to be reported that the numerous, highly vocal, followers of Malthus - who are continually expecting the world to run out of resources - would say that the participants in our research (along with many futurologists) are living in a fool's paradise. Whilst they do have an argument to make, we believe that, as yet, such pessimism is unjustified. The evidence suggests that, despite the doom and gloom in the media reports, key resources are not yet on the point of running out. Expansion can continue, for a while anyway.
Indeed, this may be quite literally the case. In the longer term, salvation may well come from migration into space. Paul Kennedy makes the important historical point that one, often overlooked, major reason why Malthus was proved wrong was the massive migrations which took place in the nineteenth century. This is a rarely quoted reason for the Malthusian trap having been averted. With no new lands on Earth to migrate to, this has not been an option for solving similar problems in recent times. Now though, or at least in the early 21st century, it is once more becoming highly relevant. Soon there are likely to be comparable migrations to other planets and to space colonies. This should both the optimists, who want to see such expansion, and the pessimists, who will seize on it as the final proof of the Earth's limited capacity!
These were, though, usually seen as local problems, where something over half our general groups (but only a third of our experts) also saw that there would be - overall - food for all; possibly as a result of the introduction of food substitutes. Though only a third of the experts, here possibly being more optimistic, commented on this and most futurologists follow much the same approach; though usually in the form of a tacit assumption rather than an overt statement about unlimited resources. On the other hand, the present-day environmental lobby - which contains a few important futurists and has an especially influential relationship with the media - takes a much more Malthusian line; and, even amongst our ‘individuals’, 60% thought mineral resources might run out by 2040.
Our contacts with the major multi-nationals working in this field suggest, however, that the problem is typically not one of absolute shortage but of pricing - in particular in terms of the massive subsidies on irrigation water (in California just as much as in Saudi Arabia) which then result in unsustainable demands on the aquifers supplying these. Even so, these same managers suggest that the arguments in certain areas, such as those over the ground-water rights in the Jordan valley - may become political flashpoints.
15 May 2003
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