2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
One factor, to add to the mixture of optimism and pessimism, is the impact of the Millennium itself. It may only be psychological, and it certainly is illogical, but the indications are that it, too, will eventually give a boost to the economy. This will be not least because so many companies will be looking to the future - possibly for the first time in a decade - and investing for the long-term potential they will see in the new century. In this, they are likely to be influenced by the media, which will by then exhausted the news value of Armageddon and will be on the bandwagon celebrating the new horizons opening up!
Just one advance indicator of the optimism at last emerging amongst the larger corporations is the number of these returning to genuinely long-range planning. With the growing pessimism in the 1980s, many of them reduced their planning horizons down from ten years, or more, to three years, or less - and redeployed the members of their planning departments. Now a number of them are pushing their horizons back up again, beyond ten years. This is the point where they need to use techniques such as scenario planning; and the trend has been highlighted - for us - by the significant increase in the number of planners, attending our scenario sessions, who are now actively using such very long-range techniques.
On the other hand, it should be noted that - with just a few months left until the Millennium celebrations start - there is as yet little sign of the bandwagon starting. We still believe that it will eventually roll, but we are much less bullish about exactly when this will happen. Maybe, though, the whole of 2000AD (from the false Millennium to the real one) will be one long party!
The importance of the availability of unlimited resources cannot be overestimated. So far, the onward march of humanity has been limited, at every step, by the resources available to it; and trade-offs, often painful ones, had to be made between conflicting options. In general, this need no longer be the case. Within very broad limits, we now have the abilities, and the resources to match these, to do almost whatever we want. Now, at long last, we are also regaining the optimism necessary to make full use of these. Our future should be characterised by ever-expanding horizons, no longer by conflict over scarce resources.
Most futurologists adopt a generally optimistic view of the future - as did our own groups - with those looking to the longer term taking a more optimistic position than those focusing on the medium term, and especially those looking to the short term. This optimism is a key finding, since the level of optimism in general amongst the population will itself heavily influence future developments. It contrasts, however, with the doom and gloom currently preoccupying the media. On the other hand, perhaps their pessimism is merely a reflection of their current time horizons - in view of the correlation shown above, between optimism and a longer-term view - and once the journalists own time horizons are extended (as the Millennium approaches) they too will adopt a more optimistic viewpoint. Indeed, it probably represents a short-term 'artefact'; reflecting an acute awareness of the 'revolutionary pains' which are currently sweeping over their readers, without - as yet - an appreciation of the positive developments these foreshadow.
This was our most confident prediction. Sad to report, however, it was the one we got completely wrong. The millennium bandwagon never even started to roll! Its effect was not just neutral, but was almost non-existent; despite the UK government's massive investment in its ‘Dome’.
It is not clear why this happened. Tony Blair had recently revolutionised UK political thinking, and Bill Clinton was still in office in the US (though badly wounded by the neo-cons manipulation of the Monica Lewinsky affair), so the climate should have been right for forward thinking. But it wasn't! Instead the political environment was increasingly dominated by public scepticism, and this probably undermined the political initiatives. More importantly, on the wider front it reflected a move away from long term planning. It was a salutary reminder that all prediction can be undermined by events. As Harold Macmillan famously said "Events, events, dear boy!"
15 May 2003
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