2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
This database contains descriptions of the great many expected changes our groups predicted; and supports these with further references from a wide variety of sources. As such, whilst it is undeniably comprehensive, it might be confusing for more general enquirer; at least in terms of the overall patterns of change which lie behind these details. To help organise these ideas into a more immediately meaningful whole, the material is collected into a number of separate chapters - each of which addresses a set of related issues.
Above this, though, there is a further framework - chosen to highlight the main alternatives facing humanity - in the form of four complementary scenarios; which, between them, contain all the key developments to be expected. The general techniques we use to develop such scenarios - and to undertake our research - have been published in articles in 'Long Range Planning' and 'Management Decision'. In the case of this book, these individual scenarios each contain a number of the chapters used to organise the material at the lower level.
In one important respect, these scenarios are - in effect - further grouped into two sets. The first three of the individual scenarios (titled: 'outer space', 'inner space' and 'shared space') are, reflecting the views of our research groups (and most futurologists ) focused on generally optimistic outcomes. The fourth scenario ('dark space') is, however, much more equivocal; indeed, it could potentially lead to pessimistic outcomes. The overall balance between these scenarios, three 'votes' for optimism to one for pessimism, reflects our own estimate of the most realistic odds on the final out-turn.
Thus, the scenarios are:
OUTER SPACE - this looks at technological developments in general, including those in medicine, along with those concerning the development of outer space itself and IT based communications. It is the potential already being demonstrated in these fields which leads to the underlying assumption - of the book as a whole - that humanity's resources are now effectively unlimited - and this offers the major foundation for the other scenarios. This is the most clearly defined scenario, as well as being the most optimistic one. It, along with that of 'shared space', is incremental in form - where the other two ('inner space' and 'dark space') may be subject to major discontinuities.
INNER SPACE - as indicated above, this is a much less certain scenario; reflecting the, as yet, unknown shape of the society which will finally emerge from the moves of individualism - be it post-modern and/or post-material. Even so, it, too, is an optimistic one, which mirrors the very real benefits arising from the empowerment of the individual.
SHARED SPACE - again, this reflects a more predictable (incremental) development; as the large populations in the Third World come to receive their fair share of global resources - and ultimately to dominate world-wide economic and political processes. Even though it is, to a degree, predictable, it is an aspect of the future not yet understood by politicians; and neither are the accompanying moves to power sharing at different levels - from the community up to supra-national groupings, but always away from nation-states.
DARK SPACE - this is another especially unpredictable scenario, which will probably not determine the long term future, but will determine the degree of revolutionary pain we will experience on the way to that future. It describes the fragmentation of political certainties and the - futile - struggles of the establishment to retain power against the emerging forces of change. All of these predicted developments are described in the various parts of the database.
15 May 2003
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