2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
The one thing econometric models have in common, apart from holding a fascination for financial journalists, is a propensity for failure. The one model which consistently gets closest to the right answers in the UK, that used by the CBI (Confederation of British Industry), is largely based on asking its members what they think the (short-term) future will be; much as the research behind this book did, about the long-term future! In fact, much as macro-economic theories are coming to be replaced, in practice, by socio-economic ones, those of micro-economics have been largely superseded, again in practice, by management theory. Corporate strategy, in particular, has become the focus of attention - especially where the market is supposedly the only determinant of what is right and wrong.
Even within corporate strategy theory, though, the investment in people - best encapsulated as Human Resource Strategies (HRS) - has recently come to the fore; stimulated by the success of the Japanese corporations which have pioneered it. It is true that there was a temporary rejection of, for instance, 'lifetime employment' by western companies (though not by Japanese ones) - when the recession at the beginning of the 1990s forced them to concentrate on short-term cost-savings. Indeed, there were wholesale reductions in their workforces; but most management theory has, so far, been eminently sensible; as well as pragmatic and flexible enough to help in practice. As a result, the emphasis on management theory rather than economics will probably continue for the next couple of decades - during which time this theory will, however, continue to develop; though, involving the contributions from practising managers as it does, it should avoid the trap of becoming too theoretical.
The main change, at the end of this time, may be a shift to the social issues involved in supporting the individual - rather than, as now, the group or organisation. Several years ago, we suggested that a new corporate 'accounting' measure - 'Benefit' - should be introduced. This would parallel 'Profit', internally generated for stockholders. 'Benefit', on the other hand, would be externally generated for all the stakeholders. It would include the net gain (or loss) to the community, and to society as a whole, as well as to the workers and shareholders. Many of the new developments may, in any case, be in the public sector.
Management theory has largely replaced micro-economics as the practical framework for organisational decisions; and the corporate strategies being thus implemented are increasingly driven by Human Resource Strategies. It is likely that such management theory will continue to dominate, whilst continuing to develop, to be probably replaced eventually by a focus on social issues posed by support for the individual.
The management guru Peter Drucker says, of management in general, "You [now] have to learn to manage in situations where you don't have command authority, where you are neither controlled or controlling. That is the fundamental change." Our contacts among the senior managers in the leading multinationals suggest that the secret now - for governments as much as for businesses - is ‘learning how to make small fixes to small problems’.
16 May 2003
Other pages you might like to consider are:
hits
Copyright © 2005 Future Observatory