2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Commercial organisations might seize the opportunity to create - and own - the local interface between the individual and the state, but this is unlikely to be undertaken by firms steeped in the traditions of the 1980s. In particular, the new model for the firm will probably be based on co-operation not competition - especially with regard to customers or clients. Indeed, my research shows that - in terms of these groups of stake-holders, at least - most organisations already base their relationships with them on co-operation. This is in the face of the incitement to more macho actions demanded of them by political pundits; although they are rather embarrassed - in these circumstances - to admit that this is what they do!
In the case of the interface between the individual and the community, it is evident that pure market forces would, in any case, never be likely to justify the investment in the richness of relationships required. It is arguable that the commercial organisations which may succeed will appear more like religious organisations than other commercial firms. It was interesting to note that, as early as the 1960s, Hugh Hefner's approach to setting up the Playboy organisations - one of the classic exercises in lifestyle marketing - was at least as much driven by a (quasi-religious) belief in the values it incorporated than by commercial acumen.
In the developing commercial world, this move from (competitive) combat-driven to (co-operative) value-driven approaches is likely to accelerate. As we have seen, it is much more in keeping with the demands of the emerging markets. It is also much more in keeping with the demands of employees who - given the choice of jobs and the more than adequate salaries which will soon be on offer (as the recessions of the later 20th century end) - will choose to work for an organisation whose values they respect.
The key symbol of the change is likely to be a move away from the commitment to money as the only worthwhile objective - for both organisations and individuals. Apart from the US, where the philosophy is probably too engrained, the pursuit of money for its own sake will probably decline. Certainly, flaunting it, not least on the forms of conspicuous consumption which were so much in evidence during the 1980s, will probably come to be judged to be in the worst possible taste.
This will have implications for the wealthy. They have already adopted a low profile - and will continue to assume a cloak of invisibility; but they will increasingly act against those who threaten to expose them - those who allow themselves to be seen as receiving obscenely large sums of money, from whatever source - by ruthlessly sacrificing these to the mob.
While the financial services sector will remain important, its values will change - especially after disasters befalling a range of financial institutions which gamble too recklessly. The remaining institutions will make the claim that they want to invest securely in the future of society, even if this means low returns - and will actually, in the main - attempt to do this (though their expertise in this field is sadly depleted), not least prompted by increasingly draconian regulation!
Finally, the reduction of inequality - which is likely to develop as a potent political force - will also become a potent commercial force; especially for those large organisations which may be most at risk from political changes around the world.
The pursuit of money, driven by market forces, is likely to reduce in importance as a basic driver for society; and even for commercial organisations - many of which will become increasingly value-driven. Indeed, money is likely to become unfashionable; in the face of regulatory control of its abuse and world-wide moves towards greater equality.
16 May 2003
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