2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Persuasion will only work if it is believed - and the more believable it is the quicker the change will happen.
This legitimation will not, though, be the simple process of 'persuasion' beloved of many politicians. It will, instead, need to be derived from a genuine legitimacy - of the arguments and of those making them. Above all, it will need to be seen to provide people with what they need, want and - especially in this context - what they expect. This is a much more complex, and again lengthier, process than the quick promises politicians usually feel are sufficient.
In this context, perhaps the most important investment politicians will have to commit to is that of long-term education. This will need to persuade electorates to make the changes - often painful - that will be necessary to create the future. As we have seen, in any case, the shape of education will in future need to be very different from that traditionally deployed; it needs to be designed to positively meet the strategic needs of the future - of society and especially of individuals. The demand for life-long education will become irresistible - and will be recognised as the prime investment in the future of society and the route to empowerment of the individual.
At the same time, one disease which seems to constantly afflict managers and, especially, politicians is an aversion to the longer term and an addiction to whatever short term gimmick is currently being promoted as the panacea for all their ills; be they economic, political, social or cultural. The important point to note, again, is that almost any significant cultural change will take at least a decade to complete. Anyone who promises effective change at a faster rate is - almost by default - a fool or, more likely, a charlatan!
For instance, Perri6, research director of the Demos think-tank, reports that "...governments remain very poor at measuring the cultures, the social capital and the extent of social trust among their populations of individuals or of organisations...the vast majority of government measurements and organisation of information is geared still to monitoring financial flows..."
Persuasion will only work if it is believed - and the more believable it is the quicker the change will happen.
The Bush administration would be well advised to consider these points! Currently its battle for 'hearts and minds' is literally limited to the military battle-field; with the basic assumption that wining battles also wins minds - when the opposite is often true. Machiavelli advised his prince to kill all his opponents, lest their natural hatred eventually overturned the victory. But the prince's opponents were a limited number of noblemen in a city state; where, these days they number millions in the general population - so this expedient is not usually available!
16 May 2003
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