2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
The current levels of uncertainty, which are causing pain and anguish - especially to those in the establishment, are temporary! It ought to be expected that - during a period when a number of major 'revolutions' are approaching their peaks - there will naturally be a period of revolutionary pain; as the new frameworks are put into place. Understandably, though, it is not being taken into account, by a population experiencing such disorienting changes. It is also not surprising that almost the whole establishment, which is genuinely the one group which is threatened by many of the developments, is grasping at straws and retreating into ever deeper - and more depressed - forms of groupthink.
The real danger, but one which is recognised by only a few of the leading futurologists, is that - as a result of the confusion - the establishment in general, and that of politics in particular, is getting ever more out of step with the rest of the population. As the people come to terms with the new facts of their future life, which in general offers them a better future - not least in terms of the empowerment of the individual, much of the establishment is retreating ever further into a nostalgic exploration of past solutions; which, almost be definition, will not meet the problems posed by the future!
Clearly, as the establishment and the rest of the population drift further apart, the potential for conflict between the two may escalate to dangerous levels. Indeed, it might seem that it could eventually escalate to bloody revolution - but this time on a global scale. Perhaps the Communist International had a point after all!
The one redeeming feature, however, is that - when the chips are down - individual members of the establishment are individuals! The rift between their individual perceptions, of the facts which will eventually penetrate even the most isolated of homes, and those promoted by the establishment to which they belong will ultimately become too much for even them to tolerate. The establishment position will collapse; much as it did in Eastern Europe at the end of the 1980s. That collapse itself may lead to chaos - albeit riding on a wave of popular euphoria - but this will only be temporary; again as it was in Eastern Europe. That, in any case, is our belief - or at least our hope - since the alternative, which would threaten the very foundations of our civilisation, is too cataclysmic to even contemplate!
The first need here is for EVERYONE - from individuals to governments - to recognise the REALITIES. OPTIMISM rather than pessimism about the future should be DEMANDED. These pains are short-term; and we must all look beyond them, to put them in the perspective of a utopian future. In view of the groupthink likely to incapacitate the political establishment, the real need here is for a GRASS-ROOTS movement. The politicians are probably no longer capable of seeing beyond these short-term pains, so individuals will need to bypass the system and REASSURE EACH OTHER that the future will be better. You, the 'reader', should tell all your friends, all your acquaintances and - especially - the politicians you know, that the future WILL be better; more, you should DEMAND that they agree!
Stevenson & Lennie summarise many of the themes when they say that the trends are "...leading to new social forms", including "...the demise of the communist system [which we all now recognise] and the disenchantment with capitalism [which few of our leaders will admit exists], increasing global interdependence, the globalization and localization of cultures, the decline of nation states [which even fewer of our leaders, with their power bases in such systems, will consider] and the rise of corporate power, the influence of postmodernist thought, the blurring of sterotypical gender-linked roles, and the rise in ecological consciousness and local participatory democracy."
Michel Godet - one of the most influential long-range forecasting theorists - suggests that, whilst "Europe, the greatest (solvent) market of the world, is seen as continuing to be the new Eldorado for companies in the 1990s," overall - in terms of the scenarios he and his group worked on - "...The black [doomsday - the most pessimistic] and grey [recessionary setback] scenarios are unfortunately the most probable, with more than 60 in a hundred chance. The blue scenario [ self-confident development] has only a 15 in a hundred chance of success. The pink scenario [growth by opening up - and the most optimistic] is far less likely to happen (seven in a hundred chance)." We believe that he is hitting the problem that we encountered, to a lesser extent, with our own expert groups; a form of professional 'moral panic', which is the ultimate outcome of the ‘amplification spiral’! This has also been seen in Delphi approaches to such forecasting, such as that undertaken at the same time by the British government. In effect these force participants to unanimously agree on one outcome - which our own variation of scenarios studiously avoided. The result, in the case of the Delphi work, was a seemingly very depressing view of the future. By using a much less constrained set of techniques, we were able to contrast our experts' results - which were unduly affected, we believe, by the pessimism of their fellow experts reported in the media - with those of the range of results obtained from our managers in general. The latter were, in general, much more optimistic - and, we would argue, much more representative of the wider population.
16 May 2003
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