2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
That significant changes are afoot in the political processes, at all levels and world-wide, is a fact that the electorate is increasingly aware of; though, as yet, they do not appreciate exactly what these changes might be - nor the true scale of them. The one group, blinded by a global version of groupthink, which is determinedly unaware of them is that made up of the various sectors of the establishment; and, in particular, the politicians - those very groups which are charged with implementing such change.
Thus, a pre-requisite for any evolutionary solution to the emerging problems is that those politicians, at least, are persuaded to recognise the changes which are already taking place around them. History tends to suggest that politicians will only recognise the facts of life when it is their (political) life which is imminently at risk; when revolution threatens. On the other hand, recent history suggests that this recognition need no longer wait for bloody revolution. When all the various changes will come about, however, is much less predictable.
It seems likely that those changes which will apply at the local level will arrive earlier; and indeed some are already happening - as national government is swamped by the demands from groups and individuals at this level. Those at the global level will take longer, even if they are more obvious: and probably will take much longer, if they are to be meaningful.
The most immediate change, and ultimately the most important one, which will be needed at all levels is simply the recognition that a new model is needed; one which is based upon co-operation, not least between the various layers of government, rather than on confrontation. This was made more difficult in the West by the return to dominance - in the 1980s - of the political confrontations between extremes within the various establishments. This was exacerbated, in some respects, by the collapse of the external confrontation embodied in the Cold War. Even so, co-operation will not just be necessary but will need to become a way of life if the various local interest groups are to reach a consensus with those operating at a national level - and, beyond that, if the previously warring nations are to be reconciled at the global level.
The essence of this can be encapsulated - in an effectively resource unlimited - in the concept of zero-plus (where both parties in any negotiation can reasonably expect to gain from co-operation) as against that of zero-sum (where one can only gain at the expense of the other) which currently rules. Thus, as one important example, the First World should provide aid to the Third World not just because it fears what might happen when the latter comes to dominate global politic - and exacts its revenge - though that is a compelling enough reason by itself, but because in the process the developed countries will themselves also benefit from the accompanying growth in world trade.
Regrettably, zero-sum confrontation is a model which Western politicians, at least, seem unwilling to relinquish. The excitement of winning a competition even if it is accompanied by fear of failure, seems to represent a heady brew to which they are addicted. Unfortunately, it is then the rest of the population which pays the price; and it is not clear how long it will take them to persuade politicians of their objections to the price they are being forced to pay. Current political processes are remarkably unsuited to conveying any message, other than blanket approval or disapproval, to a political party - and a near revolution has to be engineered to bring any other matter to the attention of government.
Indeed, a second pre-requisite is that the information carrying capabilities of these political processes should be dramatically improved. In the days, long ago, when the current frameworks originated - graphically still encapsulated in the rule that the opposing parties in the British House of Commons should be kept two swords-lengths apart - the electorate were literally isolated in their ignorance and the politicians were part of the which alone was privileged to know what was happening in the wider world. Now, paradoxically, the reverse is true. The electorate, informed in particular by round the clock, and round the world, television across a multitude of channels) cannot avoid exposure to the wider world. Politicians, on the other hand, increasingly live in an artificial world; which often bears little resemblance to the real world of their constituents. Isolated by the barriers they have thrown up, they are the prey of officials and lobbyists - and of their fellow politicians, who comfortingly share their own views. With their heavy workloads, they typically do not even have time to watch the television which informs their electorates, If you have, as I have, encountered the almost desperate attentions of ministers wanting to hear a genuine voice from the outside world, you begin to realise how much they are the prisoners of, rather than the masters of, the system!
A political revolution is under way - the fall of communism was just one step towards the emergence of new political frameworks and processes across the globe. The traditional political parties are far too isolated from their electorates, which are increasingly demanding their rights by other means - not least by single issue groups. These may, in turn, lead to the emergence of portfolio politics; which will demand a listening, rather than remote, government.
Most western observers, futurologists (and many within our own groups) included, are unwilling to consider challenges to the party (political) systems.
15 May 2003
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