2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
The industry sector which will probably experience the most immediate changes as a result of the IT and Communications Revolutions is that of publishing. There will inevitably be a dramatic leap in the volume of material published; in one form or another. The most important change, though, will be in the form; printed publications may still expand somewhat in volume, but the exponential growth will be found in the electronic forms of publishing. A book sized (and book weight) computer (something like a notebook computer) will be able to show (in the same detail and with the same clarity as a book) a whole page of print. It will be as easy to read this as a normal book - indeed, even easier in poor light. Of course, the 'book' could, at the same time, allow the reader to keep in touch with any messages; and with an ear-piece (which would in any case be needed for multi-media material - another advantage) to allow it to also operate as a mobile telephone (possibly eventually even a video-phone!). Even so, it has to be admitted it will still be - in its most important respects - a book! For some purposes a picture may be worth a thousand words, but for many others - especially in the worlds of ideas - a sentence may be worth a thousand pictures. One only has to consider the part of the US Declaration of Independence which starts 'We hold these truths to be self evident...' to appreciate the inordinate power of even simple words.
The form(s) of publishing will probably cover a wide spectrum - far more so than at present. It may offer, seamlessly in one package, printed material - albeit usually displayed on a screen, pictures and diagrams - probably animated in key areas, video and audio - possibly in 3D. The exact form will depend entirely upon the requirements of the publisher and the authors - which may become a team (as in a television documentary, which currently deploys much the same range of skills). Of course, it will ultimately also have to meet the demands of the consumer.
Indeed, the biggest beneficiaries will be the consumers. They will have the whole (electronically published) world at their finger-tips - in whatever form they find most useful; though it should be noted, as The Economist pointed out, that less than 1% of mankind's documented knowledge has been captured in digital form. Even so, 'readers' will be able to access, easily and almost instantaneously, the feature film they want to see or the encyclopaedia or current reference book entry they need to answer a query.
Perhaps the most revolutionary form of the new publishing will be that undertaken on the small-scale; as 'face-to-face publishing'; where authors to produce their 'books' themselves and offer them for sale through the networks; where the great majority of the hundreds of thousands of titles published sell just a few hundred copies and make no profit for anyone.
So far such developments have come more slowly than expected. This may be due to the ill-founded dot.com boom, which brought publishers in too early, and the subsequent dot.crash, which took them out again! Thus, of the big players, Thomson made substantial losses and Time Warner sold its soul (and family silver) for AOL - to make the biggest loss in corporate history. Progress is therefore likely to be much slower than expected (until confidence returns).
The New Scientist, for instance, suggests that "...as screens become lighter and brighter, and can have the thickness and size of a magazine, the electronic book will oust the novel." It elaborates the point "...you can store hundreds of books, or download them from a terminal with a connection to a publisher [perhaps even the terminal already in your hand]... And when you want to search for that half-remembered quote, electronic books will be unbeatable." It also says: "instead of going to a book-shop you'll be able to sample as many books as you like electronically and take the whole book [only] if you want it." One final claim by the New Scientist with which I do disagree, however, is that "A couple of decades into the next century, a room full of books will mark you as highly pretentious - the sort of person who owns a wood burning stove now, except that books will be ecologically indefensible..." We believe that for a long time to come the two forms will complement each other.
The Economist points out, "...less than 1% of mankind's documented knowledge has been captured in digital form. Computer archives go back only 12 years (i.e. to when newspapers began using computer typesetting). This leaves 99% of the world's knowledge in books, reports and other publications, gathering dust on library shelves."
Mark Lawson - writing in the Independent on Sunday - makes the point that despite all the changes we have seen, up to and including 24 hour multi-channel TV, "...it can be said that only two cultural forms have died out in the past 100 years - music hall and the letter...so the cultural story of the 20th century has, unexpectedly, been that of the durability of traditional and, particularly, printed forms." Though even he does add that the "...reference book is going the way of D-for-Dodo."
8 May 2003
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