2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
In the context of rating the future in terms of optimism versus pessimism, optimism is a crucial feature of any positive scenario.
Thus, even during the depths of the recession at the beginning of the 1990s, quantified research showed that, despite the overall pessimism of the politicians and media, managers - at least - were still optimistic about the future. On a scale of 1 (pessimism) to 5 (optimism) the mean was 3.2 - which is close to the ideal position for a happy future; showing general optimism, but not unduly so (since over-optimism might collapse in the face of the first setback). Later in the decade, as the recession faded, they became even more optimistic. One problem, however, is that while managers are themselves optimistic, they believe that most other people's views are pessimistic. The true underlying optimism is, therefore, often hidden beneath a veneer of pessimism.
The role of the media is probably crucial, in this context. There is a well-reported sociological phenomenon, called the 'amplification spiral', whereby stories reported in the media (whether true or false, but usually controversial) produce a response in the readers which is then fed back to the media again - to amplify what has been said by the original reporters. They, in turn, feel more confident of their position, inflating their reports even further, and the spiral grows! In its extreme version it becomes 'moral panic', where false reports are blown up out of all proportion - to create, literally, a form of panic amongst the population at large.
It is just possible that we, and especially the Americans (and above all the US Administration!) once more reached this point, of moral panic after 9-11. After all, the 3,000 innocent people killed was insignificant when compared with the 100 million who died in the Second World War.
Even so, beneath the surface, rampant optimism is still driving the increasing pace of change. Buckminster Fuller estimated that about 5,000 years ago a significant invention occurred every 200 years. By 1,000 AD the pace had speeded up to one every 30 years, and by the Industrial Revolution it was down to six months. By the end of the Second World War there was a significant invention every month, and by now it must be down to a week or so - if not just days. Where it does not threaten individuals - and it must be recognised that at times the pace of progress does cause 'revolutionary pains' on the scale sufficient to make people feel threatened - such a rate of change creates a mood of optimism, if not even of euphoria. Many of the more popular futurologists hold similar views of the future; and their continuing popularity is, indeed, probably ensured by the technological utopias they describe - which their audiences want to hear!
Marvin Cetron- president of Forecasting International Ltd, working with the editors of the Futurist - lists as the first of his key trends which will affect the future "Economic prosperity - affluence, low interest rates, low inflation rates - will continue through into the foreseeable future."
Even the OECD is, as reported by Stevens & Michalski, quite optimistic "...per capita disposable incomes in the United States are likely to increase by a quarter in real terms between 1990 and 2005 [and in Japan by 30% between 1990 and 2010]"
As one of the leaders of a major multi-national pointed out to us, pessimists ignore feedback mechanisms - we all learn from experience. Even the politicians do so eventually - albeit rather more slowly than the rest of us!
Migration (now into space) may solve some problems, for Paul Kennedy notes that "Between 1815 and 1914, around 20 million Britons left the country, a massive exodus relative to the overall population."
The real legacy of 9-11 has turned out to be not direct pessimism but manipulation of fear in the US by the right-wing pressure groups which have captured the administration. Now it is the fear of what damage they may wreak on the world, and in particular on Wall Street, which is leading to widespread pessimism elsewhere!
5 May 2003
Other pages you might like to consider are:
hits
Copyright © 2005 Future Observatory