2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Following a theme of optimism, and indeed, providing the main basis for it, the most important assumption behind the material on this database is that our future no longer has to be constrained by resource limitations. Our future will be shaped by the choices we make, or at least by the decisions governments take on our behalf.
The key lesson, in this context, is that governments should no longer set artificial LIMITATIONS on what may be achieved in the long term. In the short and medium term there WILL be bottlenecks which will limit certain courses of action; but beware the pessimists statements that these transitional constraints will impose these limits for ever. Margaret Thatcher's famous dictum that 'There Are No Alternatives' (TINA) is just one classical example of a self-imposed constraint. There almost always IS a range of alternatives. The decision by Jack Kennedy to put a man on the moon in less than a decade, surely the most extreme example of ignoring generally accepted constraints, shows just how possible it is to make your own choice - from amongst even the most outlandish of these alternatives - and SUCCEED. The role of government is to choose the best alternative; in the context of the long-term interests of their electorate, not (as is now too often the case) the short-term interests of their party and its supporters. The responsibility of the individual is to recognise (and to punish) those politicians who refuse to recognise this obligation!
One of the central developments, in the provision of unlimited resources, will derive from the medical sciences, in the form of significantly increased longevity. Individuals may soon live for a century or more, on average; and this will result in the retirement age being increased to 75 years and beyond, adding considerably to their working lives.
This will pose challenges for governments in terms of recognising, and managing, the new LIFESTAGE requirements of individuals. It will pose much greater challenges for the individual, in particular in terms of managing his or her extended working life; demanding a new commitment to on-going education.
Most of the technological changes will take place without government intervention - indeed it will be impossible to stop them happening. On the other hand, the greatest long-term development of physical resources will be seen to come from the colonisation of space; and this will need to take place - at least in the initial phases - on a scale which only governments will be able to justify, and indeed even then will almost certainly require international co-operation.
This is one are where governments will need the courage to commit themselves - probably in partnership with other governments (which is, paradoxically, likely to make the process harder not easier) - to a GREAT ADVENTURE. Our evidence is that this will receive overwhelming support from their electorates; and the individuals' responsibility, in this context, is to make their governments well aware of their own views. Given this popular support, perhaps not too much courage will be needed, and the corresponding rewards - TAKING HUMANKIND TO THE STARS - will be rich indeed!
In the shorter term, however, the main driver for technological change will be the developments in the field of IT and, especially, in that of computer communications. These will revolutionise how we work and play, and how we relate to others. They may even lead to a further stage of evolution.
In this area, governments will need to regulate, and perhaps in part create, the infra-structure; not least in terms of providing the on-going education which will be vital for re-educating the population to meet the new challenges. The real challenge will, however, be faced by individuals. They will need to restructure their whole lives to take account of the changes which will occur. Above all, they will need to accept the on-going education into their lives; indeed to grasp it as a lifeline which will save them from drowning in the sea of change around them.
16 May 2003
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