2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Despite the hype about international terrorism, these are as yet few in number - and the individual stands a much greater risk of being killed by lightning than by them. Instead the real danger to society potentially comes from those outside of the mainstream consensus. There have always been groups which have been disadvantaged, as against the majority groupings. Indeed, the history of the United States - as just one obvious example - has often consisted of the struggles of such groups to join the mainstream; the Irish, the Italians, the Coloureds (now, having achieved some power, insisting on calling themselves the African Americans!), the Hispanics. Around the world the struggles of such groups have often led to terrorism - the IRA in Northern Ireland, the Palestinians in Israel - and may continue to do so.
The new differences, between the 'underclasses' and the mainstream, are two fold. Perhaps the most important is that the movement of the mainstream groups towards individual empowerment highlights, for these oppressed minority groups, what they are missing. The second, which may be more short term in most countries, is that the 1990s saw the United States exporting its ideas about the market society, which ultimately lead to the creation of a relatively large, albeit still minority, underclass. With its ill-advised military campaign against global terrorism the danger may have been greatly heightened. Indeed, the problem has, perhaps, gone beyond the point of no return in the United States - and is approaching that point in the United Kingdom - but it may be retrievable in other countries (and is, in fact, being retrieved in most).
In the United States, however, it has resulted in a significant part of the population being, in effect, disenfranchised from the consensus which is the driving force behind the rest of society - and, worse still, seeing no possibility of redress (since the majority, almost as much as the politicians, has turned its back on them). The terrorism which is being generated as a result is often not obvious, but is just as destructive none the less. With nothing to lose, members of the underclass are opting out of the values which power the consensus, to build their own state within a state. Not least, crime has become a staple industry - tolerated by (and tacitly encouraged by) the majority in these underclasses. It has taken a generation or more to create this situation in the United States; and it will take at least as long to reverse it - even with the most committed policies. Even then its ramifications may last much longer. The outcome of similar Sicilian resistance, in the form of the Mafia (which originated as a self-protection group), still haunts us.
Indeed, almost all individuals in future research worried about anarchy; though not in terms of political anarchy, but as a phenomenon afflicting the population as a whole. This was expressed, in particular, in terms of crime and drugs (and the potential collapse of the inner cities) - with about half of them mentioning each of the former - but not, surprisingly, racial tension (one piece of good news in an otherwise gloomy). On the other hand, the cause of the widespread anarchy was clearly seen - by almost all of them - to be the (growing) inequalities in society.
Since 9-11, there has been a great deal of hype put out by the US (Bush) government about the 'war' on global terrorism. This might seem to have shifted the ground rules, but the reality is rather different:
1) Global Terrorism - there still is very little genuinely global terrorism. Even Al Quieda, despite all its efforts, can only put a handful of operatives on the ground - with a very limited track record of success. It's one brilliant 'military' success was 9-11. That 19 individuals armed with nothing more dangerous than a box cutter could kill 3,000, destroy the symbols of US finance and push the US government into its most counter-productive foreign policy ever, was the work of genius; not least because of the leap of imagination which realised that a 767 with a full load of fuel was the equivalent of a small nuclear device. But it could only work once, and even then the passengers on the fourth plane, who had heard the news of the other crashes, stopped their own plane - albeit at the cost of their lives. There will be some equally 'disastrous' events to come, we had already forecast that in the 1990s. But even the 3,000 killed on 9-11 was a mere pinprick compared with the millions who have died, and are still dying elsewhere. It was the psychological attack, in the heart of a US city, which was the real blow.
2) Needle in the Water - the second problem is best described in terms of the hunt for the needle in the haystack, the potential terrorists could be anywhere in the world, most of those in 9-11 came from the US itself, combined with Mao's analogy of fishes swimming in water, deprive them of the support of the population which hides them and they are doomed. Put it another way, if you can't protect yourself from the crime then address the causes of the crime; in the current environment, the Israeli's treatment of Arabs for instance. But the US has done exactly the opposite, and by its actions in Iraq in particular has made the 'water' far more favourable for the fish.
3) US Hegemony - indeed, the right wing pressure groups within the Bush adminstration took advantage to wage a war on their hated (and less powerful) enemies; the 'Axis of Evil'. This new war had nothing to do with global terrorism (except to boost the hatred which generates the foot soldiers) but was intended to extend US imperial ambitions - making it the new Rome!
21 April 2003
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