USE OF THE AGGREGATED EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS

2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY

5224 USE OF THE AGGREGATED EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS

How, then, may the hypothesis of aggregated expectations be put into practical use? In essence, the process involves three stages:

1. observation/measurement of existing expectations - the starting point must be an understanding of what the population's existing expectations are; and, hence, what will happen if no intervention occurs. Without knowing where you are, and in what direction you are currently going, it is impossible to steer a course to the destination you want. The new research techniques, now being developed and reported elsewhere in this issue, allow this information to be obtained [the emphasis upon observing (measuring) the population’s expectations - rather than predicting them from mathematical models - is central to the practical use of the hypothesis].

2. decision on the possibility of intervention - the next, key, step is to decide whether any intervention - to change the outcomes - might be feasible. This formalises the recent recognition that governments are not all powerful, but may only be successful in certain classes of action. This basic decision, whether or not to act, leads naturally to two types of subsequent activity. At one extreme, therefore, the expectations may be so firmly held, or the tools for changing them so weak, that it would be unrealistic to expect the outcomes to change. In this case the third step, where intervention simply is not possible, becomes:

3a actions to ameliorate the outcomes - actions are then taken not to change the outcomes, but to alleviate - or intensify (if positive) - the symptoms arising from the inevitable outcomes. Damage limitation may then offer the most practical route.

On the other hand, if it appears possible to modify the expectations, such that more beneficial outcomes will be achieved:

3b modification of expectations - the various tools, including those of marketing but also those of persuasive modelling, can then be deployed to steer expectations in the desired direction. Conviction marketing techniques are then likely to become the methods of choice.

Other pages you might like to consider are:

5155 LEGITIMATION, 5086 EXPECTATIONS, 5128 WESTERN REACTIONS TO POLITICAL CHANGE, 5150 MANAGEMENT FOCUS, 5022 ESTABLISHMENT GROUPTHINK, 5088 HYPOTHESES RELATING TO EXPECTATIONS, 5138 THE SCENARIOS, 5199 SHAPING THE FUTURE, 5086 EXPECTATIONS, 5198 RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND LIMITED INFORMATION, 5079 THE ISOLATED ESTABLISHMENT, 5192 NEW POWER STRUCTURES, 5195 SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODELS

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