2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
2023 FUTURE OBSERVATORY
Advances in surgery - probably combined with new medical treatments - featured in the predictions of our groups; somewhat surprisingly, most often in the context of brain surgery. More than half the general groups suggested that brain transplants or implants would be possible (including those with micro-chips; to enhance the brain-power of the recipient, especially in terms of knowledge); though only one of the, typically, less adventurous, expert groups mentioned this. It is possible that these specific predictions were intended to indicate the extent to which all transplants would be used - the brain is the ultimate transplant, in that you could, in theory, 'grow' a new young body to house your old tired brain - and its presence on the list might indicate the expectations the general groups had of medicine in general. On the other hand, such symbiotic implants are already in the pipeline; one of the key 'technologies under development', and they almost certainly will be as important as our general groups indicated; to human development, in the longer term. At a slightly more mundane level, the use of advanced medical imaging and robotics will revolutionise even routine surgical procedures.
Brain implants are likely to become a possibility; though the timescales for such procedures to be generally adopted are uncertain, and they should probably be seen as long-term developments - but a very important ones for the future of humankind.
A number of futurologists emphasise the robotics approach to surgery, which might soon be feasible for some routine operations, but the micro-miniaturised robots some predict are probably a long-term development. Few futurologists discuss brain implants; though those that do recognise the importance of such developments.
The Economist points out that "By hooking up conventional medical tools to computers, image guided therapy offers surgeons the ability to see into and through patient's bodies." The magazine adds, rather brutally but accurately, "Surgeons should then do less damage to their patients". It goes on to describe the success of IBM's Robodoc "Preliminary results show that patients treated by Robodoc [which is, so far, used to mill the cavities in thigh bones needed for hip replacements] recover faster than those operated on by humans. Robodoc is so simple to use that eventually technicians might do most hip-replacements."
The Economist points out that "By hooking up conventional medical tools to computers, image guided therapy offers surgeons the ability to see into and through patient's bodies." The magazine adds, rather brutally but accurately, "Surgeons should then do less damage to their patients"! The future might be even more revolutionary, for The Economist explains that "Mini-robots are another possibility. Electric motors less than a millimetre in size, made by etching tiny gears and mechanisms on a silicon crystal, could power tiny surgical devices or tractor bearing cameras. Such miniature battalions can be swallowed...eliminating the need for invasive surgery." John Petersen, describing one example of this, writes that "Minuscule devices smaller than red blood cells could cruise that bloodstream searching for fat deposits and infectious organisms. When they find them they would destroy them."
9 May 2003
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