FUTURES RESEARCH

6015 Chapter 7 - Portfolio Lives

CHAPTER 7

If we move on, to examine individual lives in more detail, we find - not surprisingly, in view of the move to individualism - that this is where the greatest changes are likely to take place. We have already looked at some of these, in terms of their impact on society, and on the communities within this. Now we will examine how they will affect individuals, such as ourselves.

The basic changes will come about because of the increased range of choices open to us. In part this will reflect increasing affluence - we will be able to afford a wider range of options. In part it will be because the provision of alternatives will expand - as the markets respond to the new demand[1]. So far this would seem to be in line with the increased hedonism we first observed in the 1980s; and there are those who would see this as the inheritance of the political approaches pioneered by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. They would predict that Thatcher's 'children' might be expected to be greedy! In the main, though, it will come about because cultural constraints are removed or, more likely, discarded - the limitations imposed on individuals by the group culture will recede. This is the reverse of the Thatcher/Reagan supporters club would expect.

In reality, therefore, almost all of us - across all sections of society, again with the exception of the deprived under-classes - will ultimately be able to build the pattern of life would wish for ourselves. This will simply - and effectively - meet the standards we wish to apply to ourselves, and that surely is a democratic notion. In any case, the richness of the patterns of these lives may be such that it will not seem unreasonable to describe them as a portfolio of different lives (or at least lifestyles, in a combination) which is unique to each individual[2]. The great majority, 85%, of individuals recognise this as a development likely to occur over the next twenty years; though, in keeping with their overall under-rating of structural changes, they only rate its importance at the 4.5 level!

Despite this low rating by individuals, and indeed as a counter to society’s consequent inability to take on board these changes, I will stress that this new opportunity for individuals to select the portfolio of lifestyles which best suits their individual needs is one of the most important drivers for social change; not least in terms of diluting the links to their traditional roots.

The greatest freedom to emerge as the 21st century progresses will be that of individuals to choose the pattern of their lives to match their exact needs - unrestricted by group culture. The new richness of these lives may be best described as portfolio lives - a unique combination of lifestyles for each individual.

Post-materialism

As indicated above, the richness of portfolio lives - in the post-modern age - will come about - at least in part - because of a rapidly growing range of options - products and services which may be bought. On the other hand, the richness of the portfolio will not come about just because of the wide choice now available within each existing product category. Though an amazing degree of choice may now be available, not least because the products of the whole world are now available in the local high street, these recent developments have been mainly aimed at bettering existing product offerings. Thus, instead of canned fruit in mid-Winter we can now buy fresh grapes from Chile or strawberries from California. This undoubtedly adds some richness - but does not really amount to a revolution. Instead, it is arguable that it represents an incremental development on what exists - the final peak of materialism. The full richness of this emerges as people like us start to extend our overall buying patterns. The leading edge of this has, perhaps, been represented by the expansion of the service sector.

Thus, the real consumer revolution - post-materialism, which represents a revolution in the buying behaviour of the individual - has for some time been predicted by leading edge marketers. These marketers have claimed that individuals, such as ourselves, will slowly move from the acquisition of material things - of which, in the West at least, they already are likely to have a surfeit - to the development of their lives - to bring fulfilment. Even the OECD (Stevens & Michalski) admits that “...important changes are taking place in people’s views about work. They point to a fundamental shift in attitudes within advanced societies away from materialist values and towards what have been described as post-materialist values...” [3]  and Michael Lerner reports that - in his stress clinic - “We were surprised to discover that these middle Americans often experience more stress from feeling that they are wasting lives doing meaningless work than from feeling that they are not making enough money.”[4]  In this context, 60% of our individuals expect materialism to be replaced by ethics, as the major driver (rated 6.3) in this field, by 2025. The marketers’ approach, focusing on the post-materialist experience of individuals,  contrasts with that of the sociologists - who have concentrated, as we have seen, on post-modernism, as a revolution in the way society structures itself.

Post-materialism represents a shift by the individual to a life, and related buying patterns, which addresses the inner-self (by self-expression) rather than the outside world. With a greater degree of hope than actual evidence, not a few proponents would argue that this shift will usher in a better world; morally at least. The new values are, thus, supposed to be those of mature, well-balanced, caring individuals. I, too, hope that this will be the outcome; but I await the evidence to back up this hope. When, and if, it does come, it will be driven by a desire - by the individual - for genuine fulfilment rather then the self-gratification which the purchase of goods brings; there is a limit to how far simple materialism can go.

One problem, of course, is to decide exactly what is fulfilling; even for ourselves. It is almost impossible to determine what this might be for another individual! This was inevitably one of the problems experienced by a command economy, where the (communist) bureaucrats decided what was best for everyone. Even that might be preferable to the Western alternative; where many large organisations, such Disney and McDonalds, are happy to do much the same for consumers in general - with little regard for any responsibility for the outcomes, apart from profit! Perhaps I am - as a university academic - just as biased in my own views, but it seems to me that one genuine option is to educate us,  all of us, to make our own choices[5]; and then, as far as possible, to provide the resources to support these choices. Nearly three quarters of individuals see on-going education being a fact of life by 2025. Where the indications are that these choices will typically lead to inner development, rather then outward self-gratification, it is in any case likely that the extra resources needed will be moderate in scale; adding weight to the earlier argument that we can now assume resources are effectively unlimited (since the demands on them will reduce rather than increase).

INDIVIDUALISM

This leads, again, to the need for on-going education; in this case, though, not for improved work-skills but for improved skills in self-development; towards self-fulfilment. This recognition of our own individual needs, the core of individualism, has already emerged on a relatively large scale. Indeed, the lifestyles debate in marketing (usually based on the SRI 'VALS' model) has introduced the elements of 'inner-directedness' (self-fulfilment) in addition to that or 'outer-directedness' (hedonism). It has, though, remained largely unrecognised - or mistaken as mere hedonism - amongst the population at large; hi-jacked by the reactionary politics of the 1980s.

The right-wing politicians of that decade - most notably Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan - talked a great deal about individualism, in general, and of freeing the individual to achieve his (or, less obviously, her) full potential, in particular. This was seized upon by us, the electorate, whose emerging aspirations it matched; and was acted upon by many of us, albeit that the form of our actions was often swayed - in the direction, indeed, of hedonism - by the political rhetoric and media comment prevailing at the time. The problem was that, while we were developing a genuine commitment to individualism in its wider sense, the politicians were misusing the term. In their eyes it was simply new rhetoric used to justify a continuation of their traditional positions. Thus, for these politicians, where they said that the individual must be free to pursue their own ambitions they did not mean all of us individuals. They meant, instead, just those fortunate owners of capital - the capitalists of reality as well as of myth, who already dominated society and ownership of wealth within it - now being given even more.

At a time when almost everyone was becoming wealthier, at least outside of the US, the switch of more of this to the already wealthy was not generally noticed; and the rhetoric of the politicians was - for a while - accepted at face value. When the recession hit, at the end of the 1980s, however the duplicity of the politicians was revealed to all; though, once more, the picture was confused - not least by the fact that the politicians in opposition failed, as much as those in power, to recognise what was happening!

The key lesson, however, is that the move to individualism (as opposed to hedonism, pure and simple) has been under way for some time - nearly three quarters of our respondents expected individualism to dominate the social agenda within twenty years - encouraged initially by opportunistic politicians who did not recognise the forces they were unleashing. This trend poses a challenge, for the individuals such as us as much as for our governments. In the past, most of us have been very limited in what we could expect to make of our lives; and were, on the whole, content with our (limited) lot[6]. Much of our time was spent in just surviving; in subsistence agriculture and then in the dark satanic mills. Only for the elite, and especially for the aristocracy, was there some choice. For the most of us, though, it has only been during the past few decades - and then only in the West - that increasing affluence has allowed us even limited choices.

The 21st century, from its beginning in the West and later for the Third World, will see our range of choices extend dramatically. As we saw, in part this will result from increased affluence, allowing the sort of hedonism the establishment now expect us to pursue. In the main, though, it will come about precisely because we will not choose hedonism, but will move to post-materialist choices (and values). Fortunately, these choices have less resource intensive implications. Accordingly, governments - not least - should welcome the emergence of such values with open arms. They will allow a significant growth in 'consumer satisfaction' for a relatively insignificant drain on resources - just the sort of non-inflationary solution politicians are searching for!

The first challenge for all of us - as individuals - is, as we have seen, to obtain the education necessary to discover and evaluate the choices on offer. For society, however, the challenges are more complex. In the first instance, there is the task of providing the infra-structure - not least the new forms of education - to meet these emerging demands from individuals. In addition, though, the result will also represent a fragmentation of society; at least in terms of the various demands it is making.

The development of the mature inner-self - leading to inner peace, and the end of the cycle of reincarnation - has long been the goal of the Eastern religions derived from Hinduism. This should be contrasted with the much more combative origins of Christianity. As Karen Armstrong, once a Catholic nun, forcefully points out, “The God of Moses was a god of war. He was Yahweh Sabaoth - ‘Yahweh of Armies’. Murderously partial, he sided with his own people, the Israelites...”; a legacy which still stalks the Middle-East millennia later! The noble sentiments of Eastern religions, expressed with particular force in Buddhism, have in general represented unearthly desires. Most individuals, even devotees of these religions, have been too busy surviving to devote much time to achieving such inner peace. Now, however, time and resources are available; especially  in the West, where many of us are increasingly intrigued by the less combative values of the East.

There is a barely discernible trend away from purchasing goods for self-gratification - and the search for economic security - towards a quest for self-fulfilment and self-expression - encapsulated in the term 'post-materialism'. It is likely that this trend will escalate rapidly through the first decades of the 21st century; to become a major driver of extended consumer purchasing patterns.

The adoption of self-fulfilment as the prime individual objective will require a major commitment to on-going education; of a new form - demanding significant new (interpersonal) skills from the educators involved.

The increasing recognition, by individuals themselves, of their own unique needs is a trend which has been under way for at least a decade; and represents a political, revolution which is growing in potency. Unwittingly, some politicians at first used it to their advantage - but it is now working to their great disadvantage.

Increasingly, individuals will demand full control over their own lives. Growing affluence, and the move to post-materialism, will make this a real possibility. It will, though, pose challenges for them and, especially, for society; and above all for the politicians who will be isolated by the process.

The logical end of self-fulfilment may be, for many, the development of 'inner-power' - or inner-peace - a goal which characterises Eastern religions. Interest in these religions may, therefore, grow, at the expense of the more combative Judaeo-Christian religions; and inner-power may become a potent force in society as a whole.

Lifestage Roles

Moving on to a topic which may be just as important for us as individuals - even if it is rarely the subject of informed debate - society as a whole has traditionally recognised only a few effects of age. It is only in the past century or so that even children have been recognised as a separate group, as have those at the other end of the age range - pensioners in retirement. Within the working population - typically extending over half a century of life, from 15 to 65 - there has been little differentiation.

Amongst marketers, however, the importance of the age of individuals has become increasingly important; the emergence of the teenage market, only invented half a century ago, at one extreme and the grey market, an even more recent invention, at the other, indicate just some of the changes which have taken place. The most meaningful categorisation of consumers has proved to be that of lifestage - which parallels age, but also takes into account what is happening to the individual. Thus, it reflects when individuals enter into marriage and when they have children; both of which typically change their lifestyles dramatically - but are not necessarily tied to a given age.

Longevity and retirement

Not least of the major demographic changes facing governments around the world - and especially in the West (and Japan) - are those resulting from increased longevity. We are living longer, even without major advances in medicine; and the indications are that by the middle of the 21st century the average lifespan expected of healthy adults might reach 100 years - again without major break-throughs in medicine. Even more optimistically, perhaps, two thirds of individuals expect the average lifespan to exceed 100 years as early as 2035! With the break-throughs which are possible, in the light of recent research into the ageing process, our lifespan, again for healthy adults (excluding factors such as infant mortality, which drag averages down), could soon rise beyond the current ceiling of 120 years. Just as important, we will be healthier in our old age[7]. This is no abstract concept, for many of those who are children now are likely to see not just the dawn of the 21st century but that of the 22nd as well - and perhaps even some of their parents will do so as well!

The response of most governments to even the start of this process has been something approaching panic - especially where, from the 1960s onwards, they had often promised that our retirement age would be gradually reduced. They, abetted by their actuaries, could only see the rapidly escalating cost of providing pensions for such a large proportion of us - an even bigger problem when it is realised that, unlike the providers of private pensions, most governments have traditionally funded payments from current (tax) income rather than from investments set aside for the purpose[8]. More than 90% of individuals are worried about a pension crisis occurring in the next twenty years or so. This, however, only becomes an insuperable problem if you assume the only factor to change is the lifespan; and, in particular, that our retirement age is immutable. This assumption is, of course, false. The Japanese, as so often leading the field, have already increased their retirement age. It seems inevitable that other governments will be forced to follow suit; with our retirement ages, perhaps, increasing to 70 years by 2010, and to 75 by 2030[9]; though only just over half our individuals expected this to happen (and then not until 2025).

This increase in our retirement age will, though, pose other problems for the governments, who were looking to a reduction in it as a way of reducing unemployment, and to those organisations, following a similar line, which have been persuading their staff to take retirement at 55 years or earlier. Both will need to find alternative solutions[10]! But this  problem should be easy to handle, once we recognise the new age structures, and should enormously benefit society[11].

The requirements of individuals will increasingly differ, dependent upon the lifestage they are at. Government will have to reconcile these different demands, in the context of all the other competing demands within society - recognising, however, that such lifestage differences often pose much more fundamental problems than many of the elective choices made by individuals.

The increasing longevity will mean that, by mid 21st century, adults - already born - will expect an average lifespan of 100 years or more. This will inevitably result in the retirement age increasing to 75 years or beyond.

Work patterns

A related problem is that the traditional model of work is still tied to that of manual labour. Beyond 65 years, this says, the muscles are incapable of meeting the harsh demands of hard labour. Of course this is now a nonsense requirement for most of us. Our hardest physical task during the day probably is driving to work - where we sit behind a desk for the rest of the time. Even hard labour is not impossible, where we are - following the trend set by longevity - now fitter at all ages; though, again, it poses the greatest challenge for the under-classes. The real work requirement now is for intellectual power - or for communications skills[12] - and, once more following the pattern set by longevity, these powers fade much later - allowing us to be capable of this sort of work well into our 70s and now even into the 80s.

The caveat, however, is that we probably won't want to continue the same job we have already been stuck in, from nine to five each day, for the best part of half a century! We will almost certainly demand more suitable employment and, with a growing proportion of us falling into this age category, we will have the power to make our demands stick! As a footnote, it is worth noting that the existing work patterns are not necessarily God-given. Mulgan & Wilkinson[b] record the surprising fact that "The pre-agrarian hunter gatherers spent only 15 hours each week engaged in work - which was often more demanding of intelligence than most work today"!

The problem of the non-retirees highlights a wider issue; that of the very different work patterns which emerge at each different lifestage we go through. Some of these are widely recognised. Thus, retirement is already clearly seen as a watershed; when - in the last two decades of life - the patterns change dramatically. The subsequent stages - active retirement, in good health, leading to sheltered retirement, where the individual needs some help, leading to cared-for retirement, where he or (more often) she needs substantial care (typically in some form of nursing home) - are much less widely recognised. Retirement is, thus, not the same for all who are now lumped into the category; especially where it will, in future, probably cover an increasing number of decades. This fact needs to be more widely recognised - for the demands of the sub-groups are very different.

At the other extreme, the first two decades are now generally given over to education - preparing the young to enter society in general, and the world of work in particular. The nature of this education will change, not least to prepare them for the changes they will encounter later in life, but at least the stage is recognised[13]!

Between these extremes, however, are our five decades or so of 'working life' - within which the various sub-stages are too often lumped together without distinction. The twenty year old is expected to compete with the sixty year old for the same jobs - to the disadvantage of both and, since it exploits the strengths of neither, to the disadvantage of society as well. Of course, employers already go some way towards recognising these different stages - or at least the increasing level of skills and knowledge; by rewarding the later stages, until recently in the form of seniority payments. The demands, generated by the individual's lifestage, are  however much more complex than this simple progression allows for.

Thus, our first decade in employment is usually now seen, as we enter it at least, as a time of exploration (which is meant to be irresponsible, in the true sense of being without personal responsibilities); in many respects a continuing, but different, form of education. We want to broaden our horizons, and are willing to take risks - not least by changing our jobs frequently[14].

The next two decades are now typically those dedicated to our raising a family (in a nuclear family or as a single-parent). With more mouths to feed, greater resources are needed and, in particular, greater stability of employment is essential. Now very aware of our responsibilities, we work hard to establish a long-term career[15].

The last two decades of working life now often come as a pleasant surprise to us. Whilst security (in terms of retirement pensions, for example) is still important, with two incomes - and no children to support, and perhaps even some inherited wealth - we have the time, and the resources, to develop what we see as more fulfilling roles in life. To achieve this new ambition we need education; first to help us understand what these roles might be, and then to prepare us for the one(s) we choose. Above all, we need more flexibility, perhaps even in the form of part-time employment, and may well need to change jobs and even employers - abandoning the long-term career which earlier had seemed so important to us.

It is this last stage of the working life, the two decades or more which may extend beyond the traditional retirement age for the non-retirees, which is currently least understood; or recognised[16]! Indeed, the 1980s saw employers even seeming to wash their hands of workers in this category. Early retirement was often seen as a more socially responsible form of redundancy! Yet this group contains some of society's most productive individuals, and some of the most important contributors to its development - not least because they have the experience, and the time, to stand back and examine the wider perspectives.

It should be obvious, from the above paragraphs, that (on-going) education will play a central role in the development of all of us; to prepare us for our transition between life-stages.

The ideal focus for, and source of, this education should be the employers - since it will necessarily be employment centred. This poses no problems for the Japanese corporations who already see this as a legitimate role for them - as do the more enlightened employers in the West. It does pose a problem, however, for the many organisations in the West which do not see their role as going much beyond mere exploitation of their workers; and they certainly do not see it in terms of providing expensive education for them which has no obvious immediate benefit! Once more, therefore, it seems that government must step into this breech.

An increasing number of workers will continue beyond the present retirement age, and possibly also beyond the new ones set; but they will demand, and get, more suitable jobs.

All workers are not the same, especially in terms of the lifestage they are going through. Society in general, and employers in particular, will need to take more account of, and exploit, these lifestage differences; not least those now emerging in the last decades of working life, by developing  older workers to their full potential rather than casting them on the scrap heap.

Successful handling the development of individuals through the various life-stages must include a significant role for education. Whilst this would ideally be employer provided, it is likely - in the West at least - to fall to government to provide this.

education

Indeed, despite what may be seen as my own inevitable biases - as an academic at Europe's largest business school - I believe the genuine importance of this topic is clearly evidenced by the many justifiable references to it in the rest of the book; supported by the comments from our research groups and, indeed, most commentators[17]. This section, though, is specifically about the future content and delivery of that education.

One thing is certain; that content is already changing dramatically, and - despite the conservatism of many of my peers in the field of education - will continue to be revolutionised in the future. Traditionally it focused, in the primary school, on the techniques of the 3Rs - and we still hear many appeals for it to concentrate on these. On the other hand, reading - in the new IT age - requires an understanding of icons as much as of words and writing now depends upon the correct use of the spell-checker. Simple arithmetic has not really been needed since the invention of the pocket calculator. Beyond these techniques is the whole realm of knowledge; now available at your fingertips on CD-ROM or via the Internet. These are, of course, gross simplifications and distortions; but the scale of changes they indicate should already have had a dramatic effect on education in general. In fact, the conservatism of practitioners, and the scarcity of resources, has delayed many of the necessary changes. A recent survey we conducted showed that no major educational suppliers were providing genuinely interactive offerings, and most CD-ROMS merely had existing text-books dumped on to them;  but even so it is likely that practice will catch up with reality in the near future.

In terms of the techniques, the need will be to match them to modern requirements; to teach data acquisition in general rather than just reading (though that will still be essential, where the symbolic representation of ideas by words is becoming ever more important in society); to teach analytical skills in general rather than just arithmetic, say (though numeracy, too, is an essential skill for modern society); to teach communications skills in general, not just writing (though that also has become ever more important; albeit via a keyboard rather than pen). The point to emphasise is that these new skills - many of which are already being taught - do not preclude the older ones. One has only to realise that it is only in recent decades that illiteracy has become a debilitating handicap. It is to say that the addition of the new requirements will make education even more demanding; and even more important.

Once beyond these basic skills, much of education has traditionally concerned itself with imparting basic knowledge - the learning of vast quantities of facts (be they the dates of historical battles or the formulae for chemical reactions). Where, once again, computers will increasingly be able to (instantaneously) provide each us with the information we need, down to the minutest detail with miraculous infallibility, it will no longer be necessary to fill our heads with all the knowledge we might need in a lifetime. But we now nee to teach the frameworks of knowledge, so that the individual can find their way to the correct database, and then put the resulting information in context[18].

delivery of education

The delivery of education is changing just as dramatically; not least because the major cost of on-going education would be removing the individual from employment - so this has to take place on a part-time basis. In any case, the teaching of knowledge, and of many skills, is often now most efficiently provided by some form of distance learning; 80% of our respondents, for instance, expected to be taught at home by computer (in 2020) and more than two thirds foresaw the demise of the traditional school by 2025. According to the scenarios developed within the Open University, in future this may be, as many pundits predict, delivered through the individual's personal computer - typically by network providers[19]. It may, though, also be through traditional printed material - delivered by the mailman - since at present (and for the immediate future at least) this may be provided at perhaps just a tenth of the cost of the more high-tech solutions; and, for many teaching purposes it is only marginally less effective. The key factor, whatever the exact delivery system, is that considerable expertise can be invested in producing the very best quality teaching material. The Open University (OU), for instance, spends the best part of a million dollars producing each 200 hour course - building in the knowledge of world-class experts.

The efficiency of this form of  teaching and the potential economies of scale are such that, once the break-even volume has been achieved, extra students can be added almost for free. It is ideal, therefore, for large numbers of students; such as will be experienced as part of the new drive for on-going education in the West, and especially for expanding basic education in the Third World - where the large numbers of potential students simply can't be matched by equally large numbers of trained teachers. Indeed, we (at the OU) are already pioneering such programmes, in Ethiopia and Eritrea (two of the poorest counties in the Third World), where we are teaching literally thousands who otherwise would have no hope of a university education[20].

The exact nature of these distance taught offerings will range upwards from the equivalent of self-help books, albeit provided through the network (but still often in text form - even if spoken to camera by the author!), providing less than ten hours of tuition to a few hundred users and resourced on a shoe-string. Above this basic level, and perhaps forming the bulk of the teaching load, the mass of education which is currently the province of schools and colleges will be carried by programmes of education such as those now provided by the Open University; each taking hundreds of hours of education to thousands of students. These programmes will probably take over the base-load of much of traditional teaching; and will allow the extension to on-going education - which probably could not, on the large scale, be resourced in any other way.

The originators of these mainstream distance taught programmes, rather than individual courses, are likely to be relatively large institutions - the OU, with an income of more than $300 million each year, may be fairly typical - though their local deliverers may well be the same schools and colleges as at present. In general, only these specialist course developers will be able to afford the million dollars or more needed for each course - and the many millions needing to be spent across a range of such courses (the OU's MBA programme by itself cost more than $20 million to develop!) - though some smaller institutions with specialised knowledge may offer individual courses; and publishers may also deliver some specialised modules. Even so, the key characteristic of the new forms of education will be their reliance on economies of scale to allow major investments in development of high quality material.

The most important developments, which will be completely new, are likely to come from the even greater economies of scale which will result from individual computer delivered courses, rather than programmes of education; more than 80% of individuals saw personalised education planning becoming a reality within twenty years. Each of these individually delivered courses will cost much more to develop though. They will be fully interactive software products, based as much on computer games technology as on any conventional teaching concepts. Indeed, the investment for each of these is likely to look much more like that for a feature film (costing tens of millions of dollars) and the unit price to purchasers will (again following this pattern) be relatively low. Accordingly, suppliers will need to sell to millions of customers, not thousands, to recoup their investment. The mass appeal needed to recruit such large numbers of users will almost inevitably push such offerings away from traditional institutions to the fringe of the entertainment business; which is why they are now often referred to as 'edutainment'. Indeed, they will also compete in the mass entertainment markets; and may well eventually beat most run-of-the-mill pure entertainment programmes in the ratings wars! This also means that the providers of these are much more likely to emerge from the mass entertainment media than from educational providers[21].

managing the student

I have not, so far, discussed face-to-face teaching, and it might seem as if this will no longer be needed. Nothing could be further from the truth. Almost half the Open University's costs arise from the provision of such face-to-face teaching - in the form of tutoring and student management. This is a higher ratio than for most other distance taught courses; but it reflects the reality of the OU's long experience in the field.

Thus, with the routine chore to delivering information relegated to distance taught packages, teachers will be able to concentrate on the most productive, face-to-face, aspects of individual tutoring of students; meeting the specific needs of each of these - something no package can offer, and something for which most teachers currently have little time available. On the other hand - despite the exciting visions held out by some commentators[22] - the addition of remote television links does nothing add to the very limited number of students anyone can teach effectively face-to-face.

The extra time made available to teachers will also enable them to more directly manage their students programmes of study; though, even here, computers may have a role[23]. In this way, each student will be able to follow programmes of study uniquely matched to his or her needs; introducing the concept of portfolio education, designed to allow each student - supported by on-going life-long education - to fulfil his or her ultimate potential[24].

The whole basis of education is changing. The new content reflects the new demands of an information society; broadening and deepening the skills and knowledge imparted to students.

The base workload of education in general, and especially that of the rapidly growing on-going education sector, will most likely be provided by a massive expansion of distance education; within a decade or so delivered electronically, though initially - more economically - in printed form, following the pattern established by the Open University. The new factor will be the provision of mass market edutainment, developed - on much the same basis as feature films - by the mass media.

Face-to-face teaching will continue to expand, but in rather different forms. At one extreme it will concentrate on tutoring, to meet the specific needs of individual students. At the other it will evolve to take responsibility for managing the students education portfolio; designed to allow each student to fulfil his or her ultimate potential.

Lifestage marriages

A less obvious aspect of lifestage is the choice of partner with which to share it. Thus, the third decade of life (from the late teens onwards) is now typically spent promiscuously with a variety of partners - ostensibly looking for the right lifetime partner, but also enjoying the experience! The fourth and fifth decades are - in theory - then spent with that partner rearing children. In practice, despite all the pressures of society to conform, this is even now only followed by a bare majority in some sections of the population - where almost as many now choose to be single-parents.

The older couples, who have survived the rigours of child-rearing are supposed to emerge from it still motivated by a shared, romantic love; sharing the same interests through the happy years at the end of their lives. The rationale for this, apart from the fact that the habit has taken hold and it is what is traditionally expected of marriage, is less clear. Indeed, the very practical relationship which was necessary for rearing a family need not necessarily lead on to the more creative ones which may then be needed for the development of fulfilling lives; even where interests are shared. Where the interests diverge, as is quite likely in the new emphasis on very individual styles of self-fulfilment, the existing relationships may not be strong enough to endure the resulting tensions.

There is an argument, therefore, that new marriages, or less permanent partnerships at least (where different stages of fulfilment may demand a progression of partners!), may be just as needed for the fifth decade and onwards as they are for the earlier life-stages. This will become even more evident when the average lifespan exceeds a hundred years. Seventy years with the wrong partner is surely too much for anyone to bear!

Charles Handy, echoing one of the major themes of this book, describes 'portfolio marriages' "Everyone will live a portfolio life one day for part of their lives. Most people will match that with a portfolio of a marriage. A portfolio marriage is not a recipe for polygamy, a different partner each day or night, nor is it an invitation to serial monogamy, a sequence of husbands or wives. Rather it is a way of adjusting a marriage to the differing demands of a changing portfolio in life...If the relationship does not flex in some way it will break."

This will, of course, place enormous strains on marriages during the transition periods; not least where the culture still fails to recognise the reality of the new developments, and to provide the support which is needed. Indeed, as we saw earlier, it is the inability of the existing culture, and especially of the establishment, to accept the changes in lifestyle - here the swings away from the model of the nuclear marriage still favoured by the establishment - which, rather than the new forms which are developing, may be creating many of the problems we see. Once the new facts of (married) life are accepted, and society as whole adopts a positive approach to them, we should find that the new relationships are potentially richer than the rather sterile model of the nuclear family which they are replacing.

Even marriage may change, to take account of lifestage, by encouraging one form (and one-partner) during the child-rearing years, followed by another (and perhaps several partners) in the later years of fulfilment.

NetworkING

As we have already seen, one of the most important changes - for many the most important change of all - is the emergence of computer communications networks. For a few aficionados it already represents the central focus of their lives - they spend hours every day communicating with fellow net users around the world. It is significant, though, that this process is often termed - by the addicts themselves - as 'surfing the net'; a reference to another, equally idiosyncratic, culture.

What matters, therefore, is not what these few million computer freaks do, it is whether their numbers will grow into the hundreds of millions over the next decades; and their enthusiasm comes to be shared by a large proportion of the population as a whole. My own research indicates that this is not the simple matter that the pundits in the media might suggest[25]!

Computer conferencing, which - in one form or another - is likely to form the backbone of networking, is proving to be a peculiar form of human communication. It is - as yet - an artificial discourse; lying somewhere between normal face-to-face conversation and the mass media. It runs into problems at the two extremes of usage. If there are only a few messages put into a conference, membership tends to drift away - and it dies. At the other extreme, information overload can be a real possibility. With enthusiasts flooding a conference with hundreds of messages every day, it becomes incredibly difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff. Using a suitable message handling system on your PC helps; but you are still dependent upon the sender's ability to highlight - usually in a pithy heading - the important content; and on your own skills in - ruthlessly - discarding the irrelevant. Even so, at times it feels like sorting through a gigantic, malodorous garbage dump in the hope of finding a hidden master-piece!

Once beyond the initial stages, beyond the learning of the new skills, the use of networking should spread rapidly. My own research shows that once we have gained the basic skills, and the all-important confidence in our own abilities, we can cope with far greater complexity - in this environment - than might reasonably be expected[26]. Certainly, my own experience is that my students go far beyond what I, and my colleagues, had originally expected them to. Use will spread even more rapidly once the infra-structure allows a richer diet, and more user-friendly forms of presentation; matching, perhaps, the standards which are now essential for computer games - that (paradoxically?) are driving the whole industry! In particular, once the widespread use of voice and video allow the process to come closer to the traditional methods of conversation, it will open up to even those of us who can talk, but not write, fluently!

Indeed, one driver - of the past half century of the electronic revolution - has gone relatively unnoticed; possibly because it fitted so well, and so easily, into society. Long before there was a personal computer on every knowledge worker's desk there was a telephone - and it was used, often to talk to people on the other side of the world in exactly the same way that is now exciting people's imagination about the networks! The real precursor of the modern network, therefore, was not the complex mainframe computer but the humble telephone system. When the computer networks are as easy to use, and are as widely accepted, as the telephone the new information age will have genuinely arrived.

Computer networking, in the first instance based on computer conferencing, represents a revolutionary change in human communication; lying somewhere between normal conversations and the mass media, Its success depends upon the acquisition of new skills, and it is not as simple or easy an experience as supporters would claim. The networking revolution will happen; but how soon is less certain - though its introduction will probably be rapid once the threshold is reached.

Once skilled, users will rapidly accept the networks into their lives - as easily as they did the telephone - and the use will significantly enrich their lives.

the infinite network

Ultimately, though, the impact of networks will - as we have seen - go far beyond this; to become in effect an extension of our nervous system. Where the most important commodity now being traded is information, we will have at our finger-tips (or even embedded in our brains) instant access to almost all the information - in whatever - form which has ever been recorded. Then, we will have the massive computing power to manipulate the data we select in whatever way takes our fancy - all for affordable prices.

Some of us will use this power to physically decamp, taking our work with us - as some of my colleagues already do, spending their summers in the beautiful countryside of Tuscany or on the Greek islands. It has to be admitted that I am personally far less adventurous, I live only half a mile away from my office at the Open University in middle-England. Even so, my real workplace is now in my home - where my computers are! Equally mundanely, four fifths of our individual respondents expected work simply to become ‘distance-independent’ over the next two decades. Others will use it to visit the Himalayas without ever leaving home on the other side of the world. Some will use it to turn hobbies into businesses; creating feature films, or at least very sophisticated documentaries, from the myriad of sources available - without ever touching a camera.

This really will change the way we live; and for many people it is likely to do so during the first two decades of the 21st century. Geoff Mulgan[a] suggests some totally new trades which may emerge "Internet plumbers (PC won't talk to your fridge? Call one out and they'll solve it)...Workgroup synthesisers (bringing together ideas from staff from different projects in remote locations)...System hosts (DJs and talk show hosts of the Internet, who will be famous for the discussions they provoke each day - the true megastars of the future)." Indeed, I myself already host a number of successful Internet conferences, and run master-classes on others, though - as yet - I am scarcely famous for these activities!

The power, and freedom, the networks increasingly offer will almost certainly accelerate the move for individual knowledge-workers to become self-employed; at least in part. More generally, more than four fifths of our individuals expect contract working, and multiple careers, to become widespread in the next twenty years. The ease with which almost any of us will be able to obtain and manipulate (information) resources, and then sell the resulting product to a world-wide market, should not be underestimated. In many knowledge markets - but not all (some advantage - not least in branded marketing - will still accrue to large-scale investment) - this will put us, as individuals, on an equal footing with multinationals; especially where we have much greater control over our overheads - or at least over what we decide to build into our pricing. There will, therefore, be every incentive for talented individuals, such as no doubt we all are, to become self-employed; selling our wares (basically our own talents), on an ad-hoc or contract basis, in a seller's market.

This growing form of self-employment will be quite different in nature from the traditional forms - such as those of the highly paid professionals (dentists, for instance), at one extreme, and those providing low-paid personal services (for instance window cleaners), at the other. These new self-employed will offer what has been conventionally sourced inside larger organisations; white-collar, even middle-class, administrative work. In the United Kingdom, for instance, when you ask for telephone directory services in London you are now quite likely to be transferred to an operator sitting in the living room of their croft on a remote Scottish island; but, even then, it will be a BT computer which undertakes the time consuming task of reading the number to you!

Different individuals will approach the opportunities offered by the networks in different ways and, once more, the differences due to lifestage will often represent the most important impacts on their choice. Thus, the older employees, in the last two decades of employment, are the most likely to benefit. The existing trend for them to demand new roles, and often to taken on part-time employment, will make these new opportunities very attractive for many within this group - and for their employers. They will have the saleable skills, built up over the years, and the resources to invest in the new technologies - and they will have the motivation to take the advantage. Some of those in the child-rearing stage may also benefit. It may enable at least one parent to work from home - at least part-time - whilst still looking after their family; and avoiding crippling child-care payments.

Individuals will soon have incalculable power at their fingertips, couple with access to almost the whole of recorded human knowledge - in every form, and at affordable prices - and this will change their lives beyond recognition. This is a simple statement but its impact should not be underestimated; it is one of the most important in the book!

Networking is likely to stimulate a trend to self-employment; moving administrative work, say, from inside organisations to outside of them - on a contract of ad-hoc basis. This will have major implications for employment in general and for the market for support services in particular.

Major beneficiaries of networking are likely to be those older workers who are already searching for new roles and, in particular, for part-time employment. For them it offers a viable solution to many of their problems. It also may offer some child-rearers the opportunity to economically look after their children whilst continuing in employment.

teleworking

One aspect of networking, which has over recent years stimulated great interest but so far produced few practical results, is that of working from home; in the romantically labelled 'electronic cottage'. In theory, at least, networking is the ideal solution to this; and, in general, the wider infra-structure will soon exist - with fibre-optic cables soon due to pass close to most houses in the developed world. These developments are potentially capable of delivering easy access to the full power of networks; to almost everyone in their homes. This is the super-highway concept at its most optimistic and, in view of the high levels of investment being made by the providers, it will probably happen very soon for many of us. For those BT telephone service operators sitting comfortably on their remote Scottish islands it is already a reality, and a crucial aspect of their working lives - without this possibility they would inevitably be unemployed and (geographically) unemployable.  Even so, only half our groups suggested that teleworking would become important for them; though nearly 90% of our individual respondents thought teleworking will be common within fifteen years.

The drawbacks - in the short term - are evident at either end of the communications chain. At one end, the typical home is not - as yet - well-prepared for becoming such a work-place[27]. Working on the dining-room table while the children play around you, as some pundits suggest, is really no solution.

At the other extreme, the traditional office building offers more than just desk-space. Above all, it offers us the contact, with our peers, which we seem to crave[28]. Thus, almost a half of teleworkers feel isolated from colleagues and office gossip[29]. Thus, homeworking, at least in the first instance, may not reduce organisational costs - which has usually been the motive for organisations investigating the proposition. It may actually increase them in the short term. Even so some estimates show that perhaps as many as 10% of the working population in some Western countries are already working from home.

With careful planning, over time the costs may reduce. The workers visiting the central office can share desks and equipment.  This now often called 'hoteling'[30]. Perhaps more important, in the second stage (described as dispersion) the office itself can be split up and moved to regional centres where space costs are lower[31]. In the final stage, diffusion - where the organisation may be based on computer conferencing networks - the cost may eventually be no more than traditional solutions. Indeed, some would claim that, with the cost of housing a professional office worker in a traditional building being something like $10,000 a year and productivity of those at home rising by between 20% and 40%[32] , there may ultimately be major savings - though it might be wise not to count on these until they arrive!

The real benefits to be derived from homeworking will accrue to the individual; to you and me. Not least, the hours wasted in soul-destroying commuting will almost disappear; and the working environment will, given the right investment, improve - though for most of us the view from the window is more likely to be of suburbia than of distant mountains or forest glades! The good news, even so, is that almost two thirds of teleworkers in one survey[33] reported less stress and three quarters of them had more time with their family. These benefits will be such that the pressure which we bring to bear on our employers will eventually overcome the latter's objections; and homeworking will slowly grow to represent, by mid 21st century say, a significant proportion of the total.

The process will probably be encouraged by government - in the form of tax breaks and grants - since it will offer a considerably cheaper solution to the increasingly impossible demands placed on the transport infra-structure. At its simplest, it will be cheaper to subsidise us working at home than pay for the roads to bring us into offices!

One drawback, for teleworkers in developed countries, may be that they find themselves in competition with teleworkers from the Third World. As Pete Engardio - writing in Business Week - points out "What makes Third World brain-power so attractive is price. A good computer circuit-board designer in California, for example, can pull down $60,000 to $100,000 a year. Taiwan is glutted with equally qualified engineers earning around $25,000. In India or China, you can get top-level talent, probably with a PhD, for less than $10,000." He goes on to also point out that, surprisingly to most people, "India has the second-largest pool of English speaking talent in the world, after the US. This includes 100,000 software engineers...Dataquest inc., the research firm, estimates that there are at least 350,000 information-technology engineers in China..." This is potentially bad news for those of us in the West - nearly three quarters of individuals expect a global market within three decades - but very good news for our counterparts in developing countries.

Homeworking will slowly become, over the first decades of the 21st century, a widespread reality. Though it will not result in major cost-savings for organisations, once the investment in the home facilities has been made it will bring real benefits to the individual; especially where governments subsidise the process.

electronic CHAOS

A potentially more subversive use of the networks is already emerging in the shape of very active use by groups which wish to act collectively - especially where group members are widely spread in geographical terms. Most of these groups will be interest groups, formed by those sharing common interests; railway modellers in England sharing their thoughts about the ideal layout with their counter-parts in New Zealand, or chess buffs who are willing to play anyone anywhere, for instance. Some, though, will want to co-operate towards a common goal. They might, for example, want to jointly work on different aspects of the archaeology of a particular century, or to participate in the human genome project, or to plan the future of a voluntary organisation; all of these across country boundaries. More controversially, they might wish to become powerful pressure groups; acting together to apply pressure, as a well organised group, to an organisation or to a government agency. This may eventually extend to positive action.

A much less welcome outcome of the power the networks bring to the individual will be the opportunity it offers to those who - for whatever reason - wish to actively subvert society. They also now have access to the jungle of electronic networks , covering the globe, within which they can conduct guerrilla warfare. Indeed, their tactics can be much the same as the traditional guerrilla, emerging from the jungle only to make a very brief attack, before they melt back into the surrounding cover. There is one important difference. They no longer need the support structure - ‘the water in which fishes swim’, to quote the famous phrase - so they no longer need to win the tacit support of large parts of the community; and no longer need fear betrayal - but can remain truly invisible.

These will be no ordinary hackers, though, happy just to cause a little chaos with their inane messages - vandalism just for the sheer hell of it[34]. They will be professionals, demolishing parts of organisations, maybe whole organisations - to make their political point or simply to destroy their opponents - and they will be hard to combat. Within a few years, such electronic terrorists will, along with electronic fraudsters, absorb an ever larger amount of police time - together with that of the emerging data protection industry.

Networks offer an ideal medium for groups to share and organise their joint activities, around the world. This may, in the extreme, aid pressure groups to apply even greater force.

Networks will not be all good news. They will also provide an ideal environment for terrorists to create political impact; and combating this will take an increasing amount of police time.

Consumer Power

Parallel with the political power gradually accruing to us will come increasing commercial power. For most of the past half-century, the leading suppliers to the consumer markets have recognised the importance of the consumer; under the compendium 'discipline' of marketing. Unfortunately, with the technology of the time, these suppliers could only conduct their marketing activities in terms of groups of individuals; and in terms of average needs and wants - discovered by marketing research based on sample surveys. Most recently, many of them have been forced to abandon even this limited dialogue, to meet the needs of the increasingly powerful retailers; who have claimed - with some justification - that they were closer to the customer.

This retailer power will, though, probably only have a lifetime of a couple of decades or so; in its raw form, at least. Database marketing, which requires that the supplier tracks large amounts of data on each individual customer's activities  (and which is to marketing what networking is to communications), will introduce the dialogue with the consumer - this time on an individual basis. Increasingly, therefore, suppliers - of all types - will hold such details for all of us on massive computer databases. They will tailor their offerings, or at least the way they are promoted, not just to the group average but to our individual needs; though this is likely to be a progressive trend as the groups they currently market to are split into ever smaller segments. This will offer significant competitive advantage to those suppliers who invest in the requisite technology and information. In particular, it may - in the short term - further reinforce the position of strong retailers; since they, with their club schemes, have the most direct access to large numbers of consumers - and can spread their investment across far more product categories.

The next stage, though, will go much further - to allow us to engage in a, more or less, genuine dialogue with our suppliers. I have to qualify this as 'more or less', because suppliers with millions of consumers will still have to mediate this dialogue through computers; but the advantage will go to those with the most 'human' computer - the one which is easiest and most effective (and friendly!) for us to deal with.

Reduced to its simplest level we, the individual consumers, will negotiate with the individual supplier to agree what is to be supplied and at what price - together with how it is supplied - which may then rapidly undermine retailer power. Of course, the negotiation will rarely be in such depth; we will not find it productive to negotiate our supply of canned beans in this way - and Heinz certainly won't! But we may use our computer to find which shop that day offers the best package, and price, to meet our current needs; even if these needs change on almost a daily basis. You would enter the list of items you wished to purchase, specifying those where you wanted a named brand and those where you would accept the lowest priced commodity. The computer would then cost the whole list, for each of your local supermarkets, and tell you which one was cheapest. Indeed, it might even save you the trip - by also ordering the goods to be delivered to your home; most large supermarket groups are now experimenting with the concept.

This dialogue, between many suppliers and many consumers, will clearly have the potential for creating immense complexity[35]. In the first instance, we are likely, therefore, to sub-contract much of this activity to commercial organisations - consumer clubs, say - which will wield the buying power on our behalf. The sourcing of the (human) 'intelligence' needed to run these activities may be further sub-contracted to organisations and individuals in the Third World - as programming and data entry is already being sourced. You may find, in this way, your baked beans are being bought on your behalf by an Indian, sitting in a mud-hut but connected to a satellite communications system!

Ultimately, though, you are likely to sub-contract much of the work - especially the search for information - to more developed versions of the 'agents' which are already in use on the Internet. These will reside in your computer, and from there will search the world for your requirements[36].

The ultimate development will, though, be intelligent agents which not reside on your own computer, but will comprise packages of code which will float through the networks around the world - searching out the information you want. The key differences from earlier, simpler versions are that they will have their own separate existence, within the net but independent of their owners, and they will have the intelligence - albeit in a highly specialised sense, needed to maintain their separate existence and to serve their owners. Eventually, when the technology has become advanced enough, and we trust it sufficiently, these trader agents may even be given budgets - together with the rules for spending these - so that they may be able to buy the information there and then; to send back to us[37]. This may even extend to teams of agents - working hierarchically together even though spread around the world - on one owner's behalf. The Economist suggests "In the long term the most intriguing relationships may not be between agents and masters, but between agents and agents. The more agents there are, the more likely it is that they will deal with other agents...If thousands of agents are doing roughly the same thing for their masters, why not pool resources?" This is likely to be most obvious in terms of the police agent teams roaming the networks to trap illegal operations - and especially illegal trader agents.

Database marketing, creating a quasi-dialogue with individual customers, will bring major changes to the field of marketing in general, and of consumer marketing in particular. Retailers will be especially well placed to take advantage of this; and to consolidate their growing power.

Real consumer power will come when individual suppliers negotiate direct, through the net, with individual consumers. This will undermine retailer power, and give advantage to those organisations which invest in this new form of communication.

Due to its complexity, most of the dialogue between consumers and suppliers will be delegated - sub-contracted - to commercial providers; probably, in the first instance, using cheap labour in the Third World - though increasingly moving to electronic agents on your own computer.

Within the first decade of the 21st century it is likely that trader agents will operate independently across networks, seeking out information for their owners. Ultimately, a decade or so later, they will be authorised to buy information on behalf of their owners. They may then be operating in teams; not least those belonging to the police, searching out illegal operations and illegal agents.

Net arts

One aspect of networking I have not yet covered is that of its use by the artistic community - in the widest sense. I have touched on the example of the individual, working at home, creating his or her own television documentary; using material retrieved from the net. This is likely to represent a growing market, as the demand for specific categories of 'education' in general, and for edutainment (education as a pastime, as an amusement, rather than as a necessity) in particular, grows[38]. It should be noted, however, that much of mass entertainment has recently moved to focus on the large sporting events - now best seen as passive entertainment rather than participative sport - viewed, live, on dedicated cable (or satellite) channels.

Authors, such as myself, will also do our research in this way; and, increasingly, will sell our wares though the net - despite the problems of protecting our intellectual property (copyright). Those in the visual arts may operate in much the same way - the future hanging space for works of art may be on the computer terminal screen - replacing the current crop of vacuous screen-savers - and Bill Gates’ cornering of the electronic rights to much of the world’s great art may, once more, be a very astute move! As yet, though, the various forms of art have barely responded to the advent of the computer. At the end of the nineteenth century, the invention of photography was supposed to annihilate the demand for pictorial art - and yet, instead, we found art reaching a peak of creativity in the form of impressionism. We have yet to see anything comparable stimulated by the most recent changes. What is currently being applied to computer graphics, for instance, follows all the old traditions[39]. I suspect that we can forecast that 'something new' will emerge - which makes powerful use of the new computer techniques - but it is too early to say exactly what; perhaps the new solid prototyping techniques will revolutionise sculpture, and make it more affordable for buyers.[40]

What other impacts it may have on the arts is, as yet, difficult to predict. Anthony Smith - president of Magdalen College, Oxford - for instance puts this in the light of history when he states that "During the 20th century the conception of entertainment has changed from a number of activities interposed at the edges of the working day to a cluster of industries which attempts to provide for all the leisure time available." Might the 21st century see entertainment merge with work itself. People already talk about it merging with education, to offer a combined package of 'edutainment'. Might everybody eventually gain the right to have work which is a pleasure; as many of us in the academic worlds already do? This will pose fascinating new challenges for the process of work design!

Computer networking may also be used - to great effect - by documentary-makers, by authors and by artists; with considerable benefits for society as a whole.

SOCIAL highlights

It should be obvious by now that this part of the book contains a number of major uncertainties[41]. While the progressive move away from group loyalties towards individualism is widely recognised as an existing trend, it is not clear exactly  where this will eventually take us. Individualism has been described by a number of commentators - but typically in its currently most prevalent form, of hedonism. This superficial characteristic is, though, unlikely to remain its most important aspect; where the core concept seems likely to evolve into a search for personal fulfilment. What the majority will consider fulfilling, in this context, is yet another unknown - though it seems likely that it will derive, in one form or another, from the range of post-modern lifestyles. It will almost certainly demand less rather than more physical resources. Whatever the final outcome, the empowerment of the individual will have major impacts on society as much as on the individual.

Patterns of living will change, to take account of the portfolios of lifestyles individuals will adopt; not least in terms of the different patterns adopted to match the life-stages the individuals are currently going through. Education will also change dramatically, to meet the on-going needs of individuals as they change, and society changes around them.

The resulting changes in society will be just as dramatic. The organisation of work will change; though the seemingly insoluble problems of unemployment may soon disappear; since they probably are the symptoms resulting from 'revolutionary pains' rather than the structural forces many now imagine them to be. For this to come about, however, it needs to be recognised that they are susceptible to political decisions rather than free market forces. The under-classes, though, may pose a more intractable problem; though even this is likely to be soluble, outside of the US.

A much greater uncertainty surrounds what form(s) the new community will take; and what will result from the progressive breakdown of the family; though this is more likely to be the demise of just the nuclear family, which is much less serious. It is easy to see that there could be many (virtual) communities available to offer the individual intellectual support. What will replace the traditional - emotional and psychological - support of the previous institutions (the community and the family) is again much less obvious; though some new forms are already evident. Certainly there will be many new attempts to meet these needs, from deploying communitarian values to revisiting the experimental communities of the 1960s, but new institutions will emerge - the need for such support is just too important to consign it to a vacuum. This is one area where we will all be engaged on a gigantic experiment to discover the (community of) the future. More important, we will need to recognise, and accept the validity of, the many new value sets which are emerging with the changing conditions in society.

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