FUTURES RESEARCH

6020 Chapter 3 - Outer Space

As the title of this chapter suggests, one of the most important drivers for change in the latter part of the 21st century is likely to be the single decision as to whether we are going to explore, and in particular exploit, outer space. This a fundamental decision; even if, so far, it is being determinedly ignored by earthbound governments! If we decide not to, even by default, then expansion of the territory available to humanity, and development of the associated resources, will be postponed - perhaps indefinitely, as humanity sinks into torpor. It might even signal the end of this phase of our civilisation - and a return to the dark ages. On the other hand, if - as seems more likely - we do eventually take the decision to go out into space - and to colonise it - then this will have major impacts - albeit over a longer timespan than many of the other factors reported in the book - even on those of us who remain behind. It will be humanity’s greatest adventure; starting with space travel and working up to colonisation of the inner planets, and ultimately of the space between them; probably reaching as far out as the asteroid belt by the end of the 21st. century. It will, then, signal a genuinely gigantic step forward for humankind.

Thus, amongst the drivers which were expected to become reality, by those participating in the research, this one turned out to be the joker! Since the ‘entertainment’ spectaculars of the 1960s and 1970s - climaxing in the moon-landings - it has largely been ignored by most us, apart from a few aficionados and trekkies, and the media have barely mentioned it - except when the space shuttle disaster happened or it seemed as if the Mir space station was going to end in tears; and indeed most aspects of the development of space were rated unimportant (at 3.3 on the ten point scale) by individuals. Yet, this was clearly recognised by the majority, about two thirds, of the groups in our research, as being one of the major drivers for change over the next decades; and more than half of the individuals still expected there to be a moon colony by 2040, and just under half foresaw colonies on the other planets by mid-century!

In one form it has, of course, already changed our lives. The many unmanned satellites, which now circle the Earth, allow us - and in particular our computers - to communicate with each other as never before; to obtain television pictures live from the other side of the world, perhaps direct from satellite TV; to see what our weather will be, and in the process to change our image of the Earth for ever (from the hard continental boundaries which were shown on the globes in our schoolrooms to the cloud covered blue oceans of the Gaia we now recognise); or to remotely sense where there are minerals, or the danger of a drought, or illegal drug cultivation. Already the Global Positioning System (GPS), with a network of 24 military navigational satellites can tell you where you are - with an accuracy of a few tens of metres or so - anywhere on Earth, using just a hand-held receiver. In terms of communications, Motorola is about to launch 66 satellites, built by Lockheed, for its Iridium Project[1] so that pocket-sized mobile telephones will be able to communicate anywhere around the globe - from the freezing wastes of the Antarctic to the baking ones of the Sahara if need be.

That our interest in space, or at least that displayed by the media and the politicians in particular, did not seem to survive beyond the 1970s may have been due to two factors. Of these perhaps the most important was the fact that the prime focus - albeit a covert one - was really that of defence needs; especially putting military satellites into Earth orbit. This military use of space was anything but outward-looking; the satellites were all pointed inwards, surveying the targets, the enemy, below. More, it was backward-looking. If it had anything to say about the future, it was that there probably wasn't any; the rationale for these spy satellites was the destruction of humanity! If nothing else, it meant that all this work was conducted in the utmost secrecy.

The other factor, which drove the moon-landings, had been the need - recognised by Jack Kennedy - that US prestige (almost fatally wounded by the achievements of the USSR in Earth orbit) depended upon putting a man on the moon; by whatever means possible. Though this did ultimately seem to put man into space, and onto another body within the solar system, it was in many respects a sleight of hand. It may have restored the image of the US, but at the cost of the serious exploration of space. In fact, it impeded it - making the more prosaic steps towards the real development of space seem boring for most of us watching such events, when we compared them with our memories of the thrill a minute which the Apollo programme provided. It even persuaded the scientists that unmanned space vehicles were more cost-effective; which they were, in the short-term. Neil Armstrong's step was, in retrospect, one backwards for mankind.

Even so, the impact was dramatic in one respect. It was no longer possible to say that humanity could not conquer space - as it had been said only a couple of decades previously. It demonstrably had been able to do so. The seminal image was that of Earth-rise seen from the moon. The genie was out of the bottle, and space was there for the taking.

William Braselton[2] - a Vice-President of Harris Government Aerospace Systems - describes space, with some justification, as ‘the world's largest industry of the early 21st century’, and Vincent Kiernan suggests, in a similar vein, that "In future, historians may say that the development of such a space infrastructure had the same boost on the world's economy in the early 21st century as did the construction of major road networks this century and the building of rail networks in the last"[3]  I  think a better analogy, overall, might be the discovery of, and economic development of, the vast open spaces of America. The boost that gave to the European economy over several centuries, even before the US itself became the richest nation, cannot be underestimated. It would be ironic if the Japanese - who already appear to lead in the commercial development of outer space -  were, once more, to reserve for themselves such potential wealth!

All of this was, in one form or another, recognised by most of our groups and even by a majority of individuals.  The development of space is, therefore, inevitable. History demonstrates that nothing will stop a buoyant humanity from expanding its frontiers. That is the key fact that we, and especially our leaders, must recognise. The only thing which can stop humanity expanding into space is that humanity itself has no long-term future! When the large-scale expansion into space will finally happen is, however, much more questionable - though our research evidence suggest that this will be quite soon, at least in terms of cosmic timescales - but it will happen; unless there is nobody left to make it happen. We were - at the time - surprised by the willingness of our research groups to put such an emphasis on the development of space. Now, on mature reflection, we are just as surprised that so few futurists even include this key aspect of the future in their scenarios; let alone emphasise it. Our ability to develop space is already a proven fact; it requires no new technologies - only political decisions.

Though it is not yet obvious to outside observers, the pace of development is accelerating once more. Spyros Makridakis, writing at the end of the 1980s, will almost certainly be proved pessimistic when he gives the likely date for the first full-scale space-station as 2030. As reported by Dave Dooling just six years later, the first element launch of the joint US and Russian station is set for November 1997 and, although the timescale has already slipped, the planned completion date is still 2002. Perhaps Makridakis' definition of a 'full-scale space-station' is more ambitious than this, and in any case the target dates for Alpha seem to constantly vary - not least according to who is reporting them! But, I still suspect that the 2030 date will be beaten by some margin.  

The development of space to date has been sidelined by short-term military and political considerations. But it will eventually happen, probably starting in the near future, unless humanity decides that it has no future.

heavenly resources unlimited

As with the exploitation of the last 'new world', almost half a millennium ago, the ultimate rational justification for our exploration of, and in particular for our exploitation of, the solar system (and beyond!) will ultimately be the resources made available - along trade routes which will span it. There is every mineral, and every element, we might want out there; often conveniently available - as asteroids, say, with no gravitational penalties[4] - or as carbon reservoirs in the outer atmospheres of the larger planets. It will take considerable effort, and massive investment, to establish bases - often in deep base - from which to develop these resources; but, as the early colonists of America found out almost half a millennium ago, conquering the problems found there will eventually prove to be a worthwhile investment  - where it will bring equally massive returns.

Exactly what will be the most important of these resources is difficult to predict, but - with Earth running out of easily available supplies of some key minerals - these rare metals may once more head the list of priorities. Whatever the final list, of economically justifiable resources worth shipping back to Earth and to other bases within the solar system, it is a safe assumption that there will be a final list, .

Above all, however, it may be the availability of cheap energy which will be the greatest attraction. Unfurl an aluminised plastic membrane, spin it a bit to give it a reasonably parabolic shape, and you have a giant mirror - ready to capture the sun's energy and give you as much power as you want, almost for free!

The long term justification for space exploration, and especially for exploitation of it, will be the effectively unlimited resources - especially of energy -  it makes available to humanity; sufficient for millennia of further progress and expansion.
 

the final frontier

On the other hand, the short term justifications are likely to be much more emotional. Explorers, as opposed to colonists, have almost always been dreamers. They really do want to go, in the immortal words of Startrek, 'where no man (or, in the politically correct version later used, no 'person'!) has gone before'. That is a very powerful appeal - but one which will be very difficult to quantify, not least in terms of any cost-benefit analysis used to justify space programmes on the scale to be expected. These emotional appeals should not, though, be dismissed out of hand. There is a part of humanity which will be desperately unhappy if it cannot explore new frontiers - and there is another large portion of it wanting to cheer them on. It is, thus, probably preferable that the attention of both these groups is diverted to space, rather than to more destructive pursuits on Earth!

Space may, indeed, unlock some of the dynamism of which humanity is capable; literally exploring new frontiers in space (even if it is vicariously through television) as well as metaphorically on Earth[5]. It may also defuse some of the tensions which might, otherwise, build up and erupt into violence. The comparison with the western frontier, in the US at the end of the nineteenth century, may be usefully employed in this context.

Perhaps the most unexpected outcome of our research was, however, the emergence of space as the ultimate insurance policy; offering a guarantee of future existence for humanity - no matter what disasters hit Earth! Michael Mautner suggests it could even help avert one impending 'disaster', which we already know about, "To compensate for the predicted greenhouse effect, we need to screen out about 3% of the solar energy incident on Earth. This requires a screen area that is about 2,000 km (1,200 miles) on each side." The same effect could even be achieved by injecting moon-dust into low-Earth-orbits; in effect simulating the large-scale volcanic eruptions which have 'naturally' created the same effect - reducing temperatures around the world - over the ages.

Mautner applies the same approach to solar power "The basic idea is to collect solar power in space where solar radiation is free of day-night cycles and cloud effects…. A few thousand units could provide the entire world's energy needs. This could be the ultimate source of clean, renewable energy."[6]

Returning to the theme of 'insurance', however, the comment which best encapsulated the concept was made by one of the participants in our scenario based research, who suggested: 'God chooses a second Ark - a space Ark'! This seems to be a very potent force, and may be the one - albeit hidden - why space will be given some priority.  As mentioned earlier, more than two thirds of our general groups  suggested some form of natural threat coming from space itself; from asteroids colliding with Earth to black holes engulfing the sun. Thus, as a popular force, though one not yet publicly recognised (if it surprised us, it will almost certainly surprise members of government!), it should not be underestimated and, indeed, the statistics show that (due to the enormous numbers of  fatalities which will occur when such an event really happens) we actually are more likely to die in this fashion than in a plane crash[7]!

It will also be a force which demands not just exploration or even exploitation, but colonisation on the grand scale  - the prime justification will that there are humans on other planets, no matter what they are doing there - reinforcing the emotional appeal of a genuine new frontier described above.

The most important fact, perhaps, is that we already own the basic, proven, technology for space exploration, and even for its colonisation. Whether this technology is deployed depends only upon political decisions; and, in particular, on the pressures which are brought to bear upon the politicians who will make these decisions.

The forces described so far, the final frontier and space insurance, are - to a degree - positive forces; but more important perhaps, in terms of neutralising potential opposition, they are unobjectionable ones! There are those few who will demand that funds are diverted from space to their favourite projects - but there will be almost nobody who actively opposes it as a matter of principle, and certainly very few indeed who will be motivated to become genuine activists (where there will be more than enough of these working on most other issues!). The resulting (relative) lack of controversy will be an especially attractive feature for many politicians. It will represent an area where they can be seen to be active, even daring, without any fear of backlash!

Thus, one potent political reason for focusing on it may be that it diverts attention from problems on Earth, which may seem increasingly insoluble, to space, where they may be increasingly soluble! The two other positive political reasons in favour of the development of space represent the opposite sides of the same coin. One is that of co-operation between nations - as it already is, very symbolically, between the US and Russia in the construction of the first true space station. The other is almost the exact opposite; the competition between nations - as it previously was between the US and USSR during the Cold War.

Space exploration will represent not just a matter of physical travel, it will also be a matter of group psychology; a cathartic, and productive, release of tensions which might otherwise be deployed destructively.

The most potent - but unexpected - reason for going into space, amongst the population as a whole, is that it will provide an insurance for the future of humanity. This is, though, a very potent driver; for large-scale colonisation of space.

The exploitation of, and especially the colonisation of, space rests not upon untried new technology but only upon political decisions. The immediate reasons may seem to be for co-operation or competition with other nations; but the main reason may be that it shifts the focus away from Earthly problems, with little chance of any backlash!

space exploration

The first stage of the genuine development of space is only now about to start; in the form of the building of the joint US/Russian space station in the near future - with European and Japanese contributions to this programme also due to begin before the end of the century. It is true that there have already been laboratories in space, the US Spacelab and the Russian MIR projects for example. Indeed, despite its well publicised problems, the MIR laboratory - which has been in space since 1986, playing host to more than 50 space travellers -  has long been seen by the Russians as the first tentative step towards a full-scale platform; and has progressively grown - with the addition of further modules - to come close to this. The US versions, on the other hand, have been limited in scope; and - apart from military uses - have largely been used to justify a presence in space, almost as a flag waving exercise. The new venture, however, should be the first genuinely productive space platform[8]. It is, though, still little recognised. Although 90% of individuals recognised that this will happen, they thought it would not occur before 2025 - two decades later than the actual planned completion date!

It will still be Earth-oriented, as inevitably will be most of the other developments in the first, space platform, era. But it will offer a complete working environment. It will be argued, by some, that the existing, unmanned satellites (especially those so successfully beaming communications down to Earth) have shown that the overhead of manning such installations is unjustified; and unnecessary. On the other hand, these satellites have had very specific missions. The great advantage of a manned platform is its total flexibility - missions can be optimised in situ, or changed, or new missions added, with little extra effort. The repairs to the Hubble space telescope graphically demonstrated the virtues of direct human intervention. The overhead in building the original platform may be very high, but the marginal cost of adding new missions will be relatively low; an important factor, where communications volumes - for example - are growing exponentially. In any case, Dan Goldin[9] - the head of NASA - now stresses that their new aim, exemplified by their new programme of unmanned missions to Mars, is to make "Access to space cheap and reliable...I want launch systems that are ten times faster, ten times better, and ten times cheaper."

space exploration

This is, of course, already under way; but using unmanned probes, such as Voyager. The systems behind these have already been refined to such an extent that NASA's Solar System Exploration Division can launch planetary missions, for example to land on Mars, for $150 million a time rather than the billions of dollars they each used to cost. Even so, the big difference, in the second stage of development, will that this exploration will increasingly be by manned expeditions; with, once more, a greater degree of flexibility than their unmanned predecessors.

More important, from the point of view of later colonisation, will be those expeditions in which a commitment to the long term is clearly made; and which are 'staged', putting in place an infra-structure - such as orbiting bases around the planets . These will be used by later expeditions, and then by colonists before descending to explore those planets - and once there building permanent bases. Indeed, the key decisions, here, will be made when these expeditions change from being mere exercises in planting national flags to paving the way for later colonisation.

The next phase, albeit later in the 21^st century,  is likely to be a progressive hardening of the lines of physical communication being forged as part of this exploration process. In particular, the (Earth) orbiting platforms will increasingly turn their attention to handling travel, and especially freight transport, to and from the burgeoning colonies. As this transport infra-structure is built, it will probably bring into use the Moon as an important staging post - for supplies, at least; and more than half our individual responses expected this to happen by 2040[10].

The first real steps into space are likely to take the form of Earth-oriented, manned space-platforms. These will be work-sites dealing practically with Earth's problems, especially those of exponentially growing communications - rather than space itself. This work has already started, and will probably dominate space activities through the first two decades of the 21st century.

The second phase of space will come with manned exploration, especially of the near planets - but especially that which is clearly staged as a pre-cursor for later colonisation. This will overlap the first phase, but will probably not come into its own until after the first decade or so of the 21st century.

The next phase, perhaps will be the creation of the inter-planetary transport infra-structure. This will again overlap earlier phases, but will probably not be consolidated until mid-century.
 

colonisation

The ultimate goal should be colonisation, which may dominate space activities in the second half of the century - though it will come to dominate debate, and the psychology of planning for space, long before then (probably being  a major topic by the end of the first decade of the 21st century).  Indeed, all of the more than two thirds of our groups who mentioned space saw it in terms of colonisation; of the moon and the other planets, and of space itself. Pearson & Cochrane even forecast that, by the year 2020, there will be "Regular manned missions to Mars" and the "Start of manned Mars laboratory construction". This might be wildly optimistic, but NASA’s recent proposals seem to promise much the same. The 70% of individuals forecasting this, however, did not see it happening until twenty years later than this - in 2040.  Closer to home, Pearson & Cochrane suggest that by 2020 the "Moon-base [might be] the size of a small village"; though the 55% of individuals in our quantified survey who agreed that this would happen again set the date twenty years later, in 2045. This colonisation will probably be comparable, in many ways, with earlier periods of colonisation in Earth's history - involving literally millions of individuals travelling across space to make a new life in these colonies.

Finally, these colonies should become self-sufficient; indeed becoming net exporters - a quarter of our groups (and a similar proportion of individuals) specifically mentioned this aspect (albeit not occurring until mid-century). They would then become members of a federation of equal partners within the solar system.

Many of these colonies will be on planets, or similar bodies (such as the larger asteroids), and will look like more fragile equivalents of their Earthly counterparts; probably being safely protected underground, with just a few small air-tight domes, until the planets can be terra-formed[11]. The main change from earlier waves of colonisation will come, however, in that many more colonies are likely to be in deep space itself. Despite the strangeness of the concept, no less than 40% of individuals expected this to happen by mid-century. If you have to maintain an artificial environment you might as well do this in space where there are the advantages of limitless energy; and the colony can be set in an orbit to cycle between its main sources of supply - or even to operate as an exotic caravanserai for travellers on route to the other colonies. The development of these pure space colonies (once more possibly containing millions of inhabitants) will represent a quantum leap in the development of humanity[12]. Indeed, the even the first fully productive colonies in space may be in space itself, mining the earth-approaching asteroids[13].

The final goal - in the second half of the century - will be self-sufficient colonies, with millions of inhabitants, as equal members of a solar system federation.
 

oceans of space

Following the theme of colonisation of hostile environments - but this time on Earth - almost half the general groups (and a similar number of individuals) returned to a popular theme from several decades ago; colonies under, or on, the sea (by 2040). Indeed, Arthur C Clarke[14] observed "How inappropriate to call this planet Earth, when it clearly is ocean.[15]" As nearly three-quarters of the planet comprises such oceans, and half of the mass of living matter lives in them, it does seem inevitable that humankind will eventually put them to better uses than the hunter-gatherer approach now adopted by the fishery industry.

The most important development, for the long term development of humanity, may not just be the colonies on other planets it may be the establishment of large colonies in deep space - again in the second half of the century - with a totally new mode of life.
 

ET phone earth!

Another surprising result of our research is how many groups - more than half of the general groups - included some form of contact with aliens in their scenarios.

It is possible to view the likelihood of this event from two extremes; both of which explain the current lack of hard evidence for life elsewhere. At one extreme, the odds against repeating the complex processes which led to the emergence of man are so high that it is unlikely that there is anyone else; or if there is, they are so far away that it may be millions of years before we meet them[16]. The other extreme is that, out of 4 billion years of Earth's existence, Homo Sapiens has only emerged over the past couple of million years (one part in 2,000!), and has only developed the technology to communicate across space over the past 100 years (one part in 40 million), so if any alien civilisation was only 1% faster along this road they would be 40 million years further into their civilisation - and as such would probably be totally unrecognisable to us. That brief flash of light you just saw out of the corner of your eye might have been such an alien strolling through from another dimension!

Fortunately, from the point of any  scenarios we might want to construct, the outcome is the same, whichever route we follow! We must ignore the impact of aliens; until the time, if ever, it actually happens! If it does come, and maybe they are just waiting out there for us to become mature enough as a species to cope with the shock to our pride, it will have monumental consequences; but we cannot plan for it.

Contact with aliens may be a great unknown factor; but it is one we have to ignore at present.

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