FUTURES RESEARCH

6038 Chapter 4 - The Communications Revolution  

The final part of this technological section of the book is concerned with the key issue of what used to be known as the IT Revolution; though it is now increasingly referred to as the ‘Information Society’; where much of the ‘revolution’ has already taken place. Even so, many - if not most - would argue that the forces involved still represent the most important drivers for change at this stage in the development of society. To a large extent, we, and our groups, would agree with this viewpoint[1]. The technological developments described in this chapter will lead to massive changes in the way we work and live[2]; and perhaps even in who, and what, we are[3]. Many of the long-term effects are by now almost inescapable. How they will affect our medium term prospects, and especially those in the short term, will though be a function of how society in general, and its leaders in particular, react to their impacts. This is why the alternatives addressed in the other chapters of this book are so important. Interestingly, one senior manager in a leading multi-national described IT as ‘deeply subversive’. Indeed, he went further, to say that all new technology is subversive - changing society in ways we do not expect. More specifically, in the context of this chapter, he also predicted that “...IT will get [literally] a million times better”; we have seen nothing yet!

THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION

Though the term is still often used, the Information Technology (IT) Revolution is, in many respects, a misnomer; since it does not do full justice to the most far-reaching developments taking place around us - indeed it distracts our attention away from the most important elements -hence the heading deliberately chosen for this chapter. Certainly, the massive increases in our ability to store and manipulate data, using ever more powerful computers, will still be little short of revolutionary; indeed they have already changed many lives[4]. But even more important, from now on, will be the new communications abilities; not least in terms of making the massive amounts of information that the various computers around the world will be holding available to everyone, everywhere. But they will be especially important in terms of improving person to person communication.[5] This has major implications, not least for the 80% of humanity still living in the largely pre-industrial Third World, who may be able to jump direct to the new post-industrial society, missing many of the traumas their western counterparts had to endure; especially in terms of mass urbanisation with which industrialisation has, so far, always been associated. I have to admit, though, that despite having explored this concept with a number of leaders in the Third World, I cannot say that the outcome is not yet clear. They would obviously like to avoid the problems of slum cities, but are not sure they can. On the other hand, the question, at least, is worth posing; in the hope that an answer can be found.

IT

Having made the point about the IT Revolution, however, it is interesting to note that - amongst our groups - IT, in its purest form, was mentioned by only two thirds of our general groups; and - even more surprisingly - by only a third of our expert groups! It was only when we asked direct questions, of the individuals in our quantified survey, that probabilities of 80% emerged - and even then the importance ratings were lower than might be expected (typically only around 5.3). In view of its widely acknowledged importance one might have expected it to be universally recognised as one of the key drivers for change. The topic, indeed, received less attention by the participants than one might have expected across almost all forms of our research; even amongst those, in our industry scenarios, actually employed as IT professionals. We suspect that this may have been a saturation effect, brought on by the barrage of media stories. Even so, it is an important finding. If people are becoming apathetic about IT, for whatever reasons, this may eventually reduce its impact on society. It may also lull the individuals into a false sense of security about the rate of change - which may pose unwelcome surprises ahead for them.

Although the ‘IT revolution’, whatever it is called, is already widely recognised as being a ‘fact’, the ways it is generally - and popularly - supposed to be working - even in terms of just its ‘pure’ IT elements - are usually somewhat wide of the mark. Thus, it is most often described in terms of hardware. This is, of course, important; without it the revolution could not have happened. With the number of computers multiplying by 100-1,000 every decade and their power (in terms of whatever you choose: main storage, mass storage, communications bandwidth) increasing by a similar amount - giving an overall multiplication of computing power (every decade) of tens of thousands of times[6], we can foresee computer power being available to handle anything we might dream of; and three quarters of our individuals expected ‘unlimited computer power’ to be available by 2025. Indeed Moore's Law states that the circuit density of computer chips - and hence their computing power - is doubling on average every 18 months[7]. Pearson & Cochrane predict that "Given this rate of progress, we can expect to see somewhere between a thousand- and a million-fold increase in electronic capability over the next 25 years." As these predictions come from workers at one of the leading-edge research laboratories (that of British Telecomm) in the field, they must be taken seriously.

So much for all the hardware developments you should ever want to know about, the crucial question is, however, what does humanity wish to do with this power[8]?

THE HUMAN INTERFACE

Perhaps important new changes will emerge in one aspect of the technology; and that is in terms of the interface with the user[9]. The current personal computer is an awkward mix of typewriter and television; the two technologies from which it has emerged - and which inheritance still shows. People can, and obviously do, work with it - to great effect - but their relationship to the underlying technology, and especially to the information it accesses, could be much improved. Improvements are wanted here; as our research showed that, in one way or another, nearly all the groups listed this as an area for key developments; 85% of individuals, for example, expected all communications to be ‘mobile’ - rather than tied to the office - within twenty years.

Virtual reality, which was mentioned by almost all the general groups, was though seen - by the 90% of individuals who predicted its widespread use - as being of relatively low (4.2) importance. In any case, there is some way to go - further than the population at large realise - before virtual reality becomes truly realistic.

Maybe the better interface will be simply a matter of improving the current workstation configurations - with larger, thin (solid-state), colour screens (and more of them) to provide more, and better presented, information. For instance, based on technology already in the laboratories, Pearson & Cochrane - working for British Telecomms, one of the leaders in this field - predict that, by 2020, there will be "Large, wall-hung high definition colour displays" and even "Video walls, including living area use of virtual reality (scenes)", as well as "Three dimensional television"[10]. Maybe we need a better way of entering data; by voice perhaps - as IBM’s latest developments suggest.

On the other hand, the consensus of opinion, amongst the leaders of the IT industry with whom we have conferred, is that the most urgent need is for some form of artificial intelligence to be used to provide a more interactive interface with the user. They see this as the greatest failure of the computer industry in recent years: and is their main reason for claiming that Microsoft - with its fixation on icons and windows - has held back development for a decade or more!

CHIPS IN THE BRAIN

Perhaps, in a few decades time, our input will be taken direct from the brain's electrical activity. A number of our groups (and almost two thirds of individuals) suggested that micro-chips will be implanted in the brain (by 2035), in a form of symbiosis - when we will all become superhuman, in our responses at least. This will be true virtual reality and, not least, it might allow us to develop a symbiotic relationship with our computers. Eventually it might even give us a new mode of human communication - brain to brain - and make us all, in effect, telepaths. This is potentially the most important long-term development coming out of the IT Revolution.

Many science fiction writers have dreamed of combinations of man and machine - be they androids or cyborgs - which give the recipients super-human strength. Few have made the much more important link to combined - superhuman - intelligence! This would be a giant leap forwards; no longer homo sapiens but homo integrans. It is no longer science fiction, it is (in, quite well developed, theory at least) fact; though, once again, it is worth reiterating that it will take a number of decades before it comes into widespread use. When it does become generally available, however, just imagine the impact on our abilities!

In truth, a more limited form of ‘symbiosis’ is already becoming a fact; though in a less obvious way, which conceals its true impact. We are even now allowing ourselves to be linked to the computer networks. We may not yet have micro-chips implanted in our brains, but we are increasingly consenting to be tied to our PCs for long hours every day. This link may be much cruder, a display screen and a keyboard, but it will become ever more influential; as we learn what the true power of the computer can bring to us. Increasingly, we are becoming dependent upon our computers. I, for instance, could no longer write books like this one without the facilities offered by a word-processor. We are even starting to put (intangible) parts of ourselves on such computer networks. In much the same way that cheap electronic calculators did away with our children’s need to learn their multiplication tables, the vast amounts of computer storage available allow us to hold our less important memories in this form rather than in our heads. As time goes by, we will commit ever more substantial recollections to such remote databases. Ultimately, maybe within just a few decades, the majority of our memories will be held in this way; and we will no longer need to maintain diaries as source material for our auto-biographies. Indeed, when chips are implanted in our brains, these remote memories may be able to hold the records of the inputs from all our senses; and emotions. It will then be possible to call up whatever past event from the past we want to experience, our first love say, and relive it exactly as it happened!

This, of course, poses a number of philosophical and ethical, challenges. Where our identity is split between our physical being and our electronic alter ego, who is to say who, or what, we are? It will take some time before this new ‘homo integrans’ is accepted; psychologically by the individuals involved, as much as legally by the society in which we live. At the other end of the spectrum of potential problems, there will be those who, for a range of macabre reasons, choose to literally live in their memories. There will be those who go even further, to live in other people’s memories; you will be able to become James Bond!

All of this offers enormous potential, but matched by similar challenges, which was however also the case when our ancestors managed, for the first time, to share their experiences though the new invention of language. That is why we see it as a new stage in evolution.

AI

Taking the opposite tack, looking perhaps for computers - rather than ourselves - to become the next stage of evolution, one area which was mentioned by a number of groups (and 85% of individuals) was 'Artificial Intelligence (AI)'. This has long been promised as a breakthrough in our use of IT; and there have been a number of workable systems developed for practical use - in particular in the areas of medicine (where I have myself worked on such developments), oil exploration and computer control - albeit that all of these have been 'expert systems' rather than full-blown AI. There have also been experimental 'neural networks' of connected microprocessors. Even so, Joseph Coates might be considered somewhat optimistic in his target date of 2025 for AI surpassing human learning[11]! Based on the practical difficulties in implementation I have observed with relatively simple applications, I suspect the problem of learning is often more complex than is allowed for. Remembering, though, the views of the industry leaders, important elements may emerge earlier - to handle the human/computer interface - as it is already doing so with 'help-desk' operations; and, in any case, another three decades of development in IT might solve all these problems!

Robots

One area which is frequently chosen as a particular feature of future society is the emergence of robots into general use. Marvin Cetron[a], for instance, follows one popular theme when he predicts that "Personal robots will appear in the home by 2020". Most of our participants would probably have agreed with this, just over a third of the groups mentioned robots - typically, as he suggests, in terms of domestic versions; and 80% of individuals expected this development by 2025. Pearson & Cochrane go even further when they suggest "Domestic robots will be small, specialised and attractive; for example cuddly". Cuddly!

Robots have, indeed, already proved very productive in certain production environments[12], especially in hostile ones, but they have not yet diffused as rapidly into other environments as the pundits have predicted; and there is little evidence that they will in the near future - IBM found that human labour was more productive even for assembling PCs, and threw out a billion dollar investment in robots. Our individuals, realistically, gave them one of the lowest importance ratings (3.2 on the ten point scale).

Possibly the problem is that of 'anthropomorphism', where it is understandable that we would want to create our technological children in much the same image. Yet the most successful 'robots' to date have no physical similarity to humans; one only has to think of the domestic washing machine, which has replaced the housewife at the sink, or the auto-pilot, which now even lands planes in conditions which would be impossible for a human to consider. Thus, the most important aspect of robotics may well be that of adding intelligence to the machines which already serve us[13].

As the major driver, which has already emerged, Information Technologies will have an increasingly revolutionary impact; but the new communications technologies will have an even greater impact.

Computer, IT, hardware will not be a limiting factor in the future development of humankind.

The one remaining area of hardware where significant development should be expected is in the human/machine interface; which is already starting to change our lives beyond recognition. This is likely to be progressively improved in the near future; but, by the second decade of the 21st century, this is likely to go far beyond virtual reality to offer quasi-symbiotic links - which will dramatically extend our powers not just those of the computer.

Computerised aids to human work, in the home and in industry, will continue to increase in numbers - probably quite rapidly - but few of these will look anything like the popular conception of a robot, leading to a new stage in human development.

THE SOFTWARE JUNGLE

Turning to the problems which may hold back the IT Revolution, the major area where developments are rather more questionable is that of software. John Taylor, of Hewlett Packard, makes the point that the amount of software in the field multiplies - every decade - by something between 1,000 and 100,000 times (and the amount of information held on databases by the same amount); something like 10-100 times greater than that for hardware. Thus, there will be quantities of new software, to be sure, but of what quality is less certain; and yet this software must develop effectively, for all that hardware power to make sense!

What we see, and always will see, is what the programming - human or machine produced - offers us at the interface; the hardware is hidden. It is the development of the software which will really deliver the IT Revolution. So far the recent efforts have been puny; at least as far as the average consumer is concerned. Thirty years ago computers were, in effect, putting a man on the moon. Since then they have only been used to put a combined typewriter and calculator on our desks; now, at last, also combined with a 'data telephone'! Yet even these simple uses have often posed major problems; as anyone, who has had their machine crash at an inopportune time - and most of us have - will be able to testify.

The big breakthrough will come when software can deliver what we, as individuals, need; not just what the software vendors find easy, and profitable, to make. Personalisation, in this context, means much more than letting us decide the typeface we prefer. It will let us brief our intelligent agents to retrieve the information we need, and then will genuinely help us to process that information in the way that we want to - moving towards the AI interface that is really needed.

THE WORLD WIDE WEB

Some more sophisticated offerings are already becoming available. The importance of the World Wide Web (WWW) is now almost universally recognised[14]. Even my own Open University contributed a WWW server shortly after this date; and I, myself, was rapidly forced to download a considerable amount of my course (reference) material to it - as well as the core of this book - making it available to millions world-wide, rather than the few hundreds that previously had privileged access to it! Just a few months later we were beginning to make it the core of our future teaching developments!

The big advantage of WWW, as identified by Amy Cortese is - at least in terms of user-friendliness - "...the software technique known as hyperlinking. When composing a page, an author can create hyperlinks - works that appear in bold and indicate a short cut to some other information...[for example] you see the word 'antigen' in bold type. Using your computer mouse you click on the word and - without any further effort on your part - you are transferred to another Web page which tells you what and 'antigen' is." She carries on to reveal the aspect of this which makes the approach truly revolutionary "That page could be in the system where the first page was or on another computer thousands of miles away"! My own offering on the Web, for instance, effortlessly switches users between pages on our own mainframe and those of NASA in the US. We are now planning to integrate all our systems in this way. Users will be switched seamlessly between the Web, Email, CD-ROM and a variety of other media, without even realising that this is happening. The computer is becoming an invisible part of this universal access to information - exactly as it should be.

The technical problems come on two fronts. One is the sheer complexity of programming such personalisation implies. If you have ever tried to use a sophisticated package, which attempts to offer everything anyone might ever want - even in terms of a spreadsheet - you will realise how confusing the resulting myriad of features can be. It can literally take days to find what you want - ploughing through hundreds of pages of badly-written manuals - and so you too often settle for something less. What is needed is, as we have seen, some form of artificial intelligence - the 'help' instructions now provided are, unfortunately, anything but intelligent.

At the other extreme, it is true to say that, as yet, the vast majority of programs are relatively crude[15]. Further, even in relatively simple systems, programmers make errors which cannot always be predicted. As the complexity of programs increases, so may their instability - with awesome consequences, as errors destroy organisations and lives. The ‘Millennium Bug, caused by early programmers reducing program sizes by limiting the space allowed for date (but in the process making them crash as they moved on to the year 2000) - is just one well-known example which caused billions of dollar’s worth of problems. 'Safety' testing of programs may, therefore, become a major industry in its own right.

IT SECURITY

Beyond mere stability, security has become a preoccupation with most system designers. Computer crime, that which is detected, has been increasing as rapidly as the spread of computer communications. In 1995, the 'super-hacker', Kevin D Mitnick[16] was eventually hunted down by FBI agents, after causing chaos across parts of the Internet; including stealing 20,000 credit card numbers. At least he did not use these, but the 50,000 such numbers Ivy James Lay stole led to charges of "more than $50 million in fraudulent charges.[17]"Typically, though, this was an inside job - he obtained them while he worked for MCI.

RESOLVING THE TOWER OF BABEL

The final caveat is about 'languages'; now the - X generation - languages which are used, often unknowingly, by users to interface with packages rather than with the computer itself. There is - as yet - no one language which we all know, or need to know, to accomplish what we need on all the packages we own. Microsoft is trying to set some standards; but, as even these standards are heavily copyrighted, one suspects the intentions may not be wholly altruistic. Its competitors are, similarly, trying to use JAVA as a means of undermining its position; though possibly with greater justification! We are in the position of many small tribes who share no common language, but who must learn a new language every time they travel more than a few miles. It is reasonable to expect, therefore, that a common language set - not least a common definition of what the interface must be (beyond the simplistic decorative alternatives offered by Windows) - will emerge [18] or will be imposed by regulation.

Much of the new software will be in the form of small-scale offerings; produced by small, independent suppliers to meet the specialised needs of small groups of consumers, especially where Java - as one important example - actively encourages the use of small modules which can be transmitted across the Web. This, along with the need for many small information providers, will change the shape of much of industry.

On the other hand, the core offerings, which these suppliers will use to build their own offerings, and which the consumers will use to interface with these, will almost certainly be provided by the large corporations - Microsoft and a revamped IBM, for instance (along with the suppliers of the basic Java infra-structures) - since only they will be able to afford the scale of investment needed. Thus, these giants will continue to create the core service packages needed world-wide; the agents - retrieving information, the gatekeepers - checking their right to do so, the routers - directing agents around the systems, the handlers - moving data, and the agents themselves, around the systems, etc.

The scale of investment may, in effect, reward some of these packages with a form of monopoly, This will be addressed in two ways. In the first, the standardised interfaces - changes to which will need to be agreed, and publicised, well in advance - will allow competitive suppliers the chance to reverse engineer their own offerings to match those of the monopolists. Where this fails, the second answer will be - in view of the global importance of these packages - that they will be subject to regulation. Microsoft is already attracting as many law-suits as IBM did in its heyday; and, in a reversal of its earlier position, IBM even used the 'monopoly' held by Bill Gates as the justification why its own hostile take-over of Lotus (the largest the industry had then seen) should not be subject to anti-trust law! No doubt everyone, or at least the handful who remain in the mass market, will still be allowed to earn handsome profits - but no longer obscene ones!

The main driver, or here possibly the main limiter, will be that of the development of suitable, and safe, software - probably using artificial intelligence to handle the interfaces - which will extend people's capabilities. Modular languages may be a first step in this direction.

Although the emergence of many small suppliers will change the nature of industry, the core packages will be produced by the large corporations, who can afford the investment; though their monopoly position will be held in check by standardisation and regulation.

THE COMMUNICATIONS REVOLUTION

As already stated, the most revolutionary development in technology is now represented by the exponential growth in our abilities to communicate[19]. Sitting here, at my desk, I now can, and often do, interrogate databases the other side of the world - in Tokyo or Honolulu - as easily (in fact much more easily) as visiting my local branch library. I can almost instantaneously communicate with tens of millions of my fellow users of Internet - gaining access to their thoughts and collected knowledge. Later we will look at how such processes may change not just the way we work but the whole structures of organisations. What is perhaps even more important, however, is the way in which they may affect our own lifestyles - at one extreme - and the workings of the whole world - at the other[20].

Thus, one outcome of the Communications Revolution - albeit one which may develop more slowly than some predict - will be the shrinking of the world.[21] At the level of the IT users, at least (and the number of these is likely to grow to a billion or more over the next several decades), there will be no boundaries of any type, let alone national boundaries, in their world. The global village, much promised since the 1960s, may at long last make its appearance in practice as well as theory[22].

Almost all our groups emphasised (computer) communications, as distinct from IT. Several of the groups (and 90% of individuals) mentioned that communications will be totally mobile (by 2015); with comments such as 'mobile phones include a miniature video screen'. One group, though, listed a very interesting concept; 'telecomms are free'! This is one of the ‘wild-cards’ which may sound silly in an age when telecomms multinationals are amongst the most profitable commercial enterprises. On the other hand, it starts to make a lot more sense when you realise that the data they carry will be the lifeblood of a future society, as water is an essential commodity now; and, like water, once the distribution infra-structure is paid for, everything else is effectively free! Indeed, when asked the direct question, individuals expected this to be the case by 2020. Thus, such communications really are likely to become so cheap as to be effectively free. British Telecomm, as just one important example, also believes this will happen! Even if the carriers do not recognise the logic of their position, in their attempts to stimulate technological and economic development some governments will change the pricing structures; with a fixed connection charge - where connecting even fibre optic cables to the home is cheaper than connecting water supplies - and everything thereafter is almost free[23]. And, once one government, or even one carrier, offers this competitive advantage others will follow[24]!

This breaking down of IT boundaries will eventually carry across to the cultural and physical ones; it will seem nonsensical if you have to obtain a visa to physically visit someone to whom you talk, electronically, on a daily basis. In any case, satellite television has already made it virtually impossible for any government, even the most draconian of military dictatorships, to seal its borders. This will shape the world, hopefully uniting it - where national media have often been used to divide it. It is difficult, though not impossible, to hate those you work alongside - even if in cyberspace - and certainly it is much more difficult to go to war against them.

As an illustration of what may come about, Richard Tutner - writing on the Wall Street Journal - imaginatively, and enthusiastically, suggests that "Consumers, for instance, could have instant access to every movie and TV show and piece of music ever produced. They could get everything in the US. Library of Congress. They could go shopping with a sister in San Francisco, examining products in a 'virtual mall' from every angle. They could compare hotel rooms for a vacation. And they could exchange information with people anywhere in the world, about narrow topics they thought only they were interested in. And that's just the beginning"! Some beginning! But, from the range of offerings he promises, you will begin to realise that there are major problems not just of technology but of economics, politics and - not least - law, to be overcome before what he describes can come about. On the other hand, his description does give a good feel for the potential this particular aspect of the future might offer.

You can get an even better feel for it, however, by simply sitting in front of a PC (preferably your own) connected down the telephone line by a communications program such as Netscape; browsing ('surfing', in Internet jargon) your way literally around the world - for the price of a local phone call. See what MITI, part of the Japanese government, thinks about the future of IT. See what NASA's space launch schedule over the next few weeks looks like. Talk to the President's office in the White House, or simply visit the electronic shopping sites which already exist.

Perhaps a more typical example of the most productive use of Internet is given by  Gary Stix - staff writer with the Scientific American - when he describes its use by physicists "The computer, known by its cryptic Internet address, 'xxx.lanl.gov', has become, in effect, a daily wire service for high-energy physics theorists as well as researchers from more than 10 other disciplines, primarily in the physical sciences and mathematics. Every day 20,000 or so electronic-mail messages carry the abstracts of new papers stored in the computer's databases to more than 60 countries. Readers of the summaries then download thousands of copies of the full papers." This gives a real indication of the power already available. Previously, such papers would have taken a couple of years, not just a couple of days, to reach those in the field who needed to read them. The result is a dramatic speeding up of the process of communicating research results, and - in this way - of the whole research process.

Returning closer to the short-term reality, however, not merely will it take some time - probably several decades - to reach the ultimate levels of sophistication promised by Richard Tutner, but  there are really two distinct, and very different, concepts involved in the current technology[25]. Thus, the super-highway, promoted by the media owners (especially those in television - studios and cable channels), and anticipated by 90% of our individuals (to be in place before 2015) is characterised by; a large bandwidth - capable of handling moving (cinema quality) pictures; centralised, commercial provision - for a fee; of one-way entertainment - 1000 channel TV and movies on demand. It is interesting to note, though, that the individuals rated the importance of these developments the lowest of all (at just 1.8 on the ten point scale)! The Internet, on the other hand, is typically used, by academics, as; a low bandwidth - text based; networked, co-operative - free of charge; interactive communications system - with tens of  millions talking to each other.[26]

THE SUPER HIGHWAY

The short-term problem is that these two systems - the super-highway and Internet - could not be more different to each other. Yet even those pushing the frontiers back, on both sides of this divide, who we talked to mostly did not recognise the problems this posed; and the few that did, and privately admitted this, chose to keep their heads down[27]! On the other hand, if the New Scientist[c] is right "..the number of channels will grow. But most of them will not be new channels but simply parallel channels showing the same material, time shifted", though the article does add "Things will start to get a lot more interesting once there is more fibre optic cable in the ground. Bandwidth will start to become really  cheap [remember the free telecomms idea!] and enough people will be connected for the market to fragment." The short-term and long-term futures may, thus, be quite different.

In fact, the two approaches need to be combined to offer what is really needed. As indicated above, the full bandwidth of the (fibre-optic) super-highway will be essential to handle the massive information flows to be expected (not least when many of these will be in the form of moving pictures - even if of video-phone format rather than movies) and the interactive nature of Internet will be needed to make the whole thing work in the way that individual users will demand. The form will I suspect be a hybrid, local networks supported by high bandwidth backbones - and this is what is now actually happening on the ground - but there will probably be no such compromise on charges - the services will ultimately have to be paid for. Remember, though, the earlier comments about virtually free communications, and this becomes much less of a problem. Now, perhaps, you can see why that particular ‘wild-card’ proves to be so important. Thus, the level of charges for even the most sophisticated use may well be within the comfortable range of most potential users. The New Scientist, again, predicts that "...instead of only twenty or thirty truly different channels, TV will begin to look like the magazine market, with hundreds of specialist channels serving everyone from gardeners to tattooists."

There are, however, almost as many views - and predictions - as there are commentators. John Heinemann, for instance, reports that "Critics predict an information glut. A television system of unlimited channels, they say, will flood people with more of what is already drowning them. Others are less afraid of immersion than seduction. No one who has played video games or used the Internet doubts their addictiveness, In the past television was the opiate of the masses, goes the argument; in future it will be their crack cocaine." He also reports Howard Stringer - president of CBS, and one of the most thoughtful of our own contacts - as saying "but I know of no evidence that viewers are crying out for more television. Stringer's Law says that, as channels multiply, standards deteriorate." His may be special pleading for the big networks, but anyone who has flicked through the range of US channels, from the god-shows to the 24-hour cartoons, will have some sympathy with him[28]. Intriguingly, though, Heilemann adds something missed by most other commentators "The next step will be assembling new programmes on demand - a montage of Humphrey Bogart's best movies or news reports of fires in Los Angeles." This may be some time off, though maybe not so far away if the assemblers are human and located in downtown Bangalore say, but it will add an extra dimension to the whole concept of home entertainment. In the context of the lower bandwidths offered by the  Internet, rather than the higher capacities offered by the television channels, this is already showing explosive growth as ‘netcasting’[29].

In any case, the investment is already so high, and the need so obvious (indeed a social necessity), that the other problems will be sorted out - the super-highway/Internet will not be allowed to lapse. Once started, and it has started, nothing can stop it!

TELECONFERENCING

A particular aspect of communication is that of the more sophisticated forms of teleconferencing which allows meetings to be personally 'attended' by participants from anywhere in the world. Certainly, the technology is now in use by a number of organisations for their internal communications and it has now been reduced in price to such an extent that even the long promised video-phone may soon become viable for even domestic use. The inevitable problem is that you need the person at the other end of the telephone to also have a video-phone before your own investment pays off! Diffusion of this innovation could, therefore, still be relatively slow. On the other hand, an increasing number of groups - businesses in particular - with similar needs may find that its relatively low cost is easily justified; and set a trend which may accelerate.

Ultimately, perhaps, the use of large (3D) flat screens - as predicted by Pearson & Cochrane - may also convey the impression that you are sharing the same space - the same room - with the person at the other end of the line; be it a 'meeting' or an individual video-phone call. This will bring you much of the benefit of an actual face-to-face contact; and, where groups (of family members or friends) are now so dispersed, this may become an especially important new device for maintaining social contact in a fragmenting world.

VIRTUAL REALITY TRAVEL

A related concept was, somewhat surprisingly perhaps, highlighted by a number of the general groups which took part in our research; that of virtual reality 'travel'. This nicely brings together the two strong drivers - of virtual reality and travel - into one solution. It may seem an illogical combination, but these groups were convinced it would happen - which indicates that there must be a demand for it (perhaps as a precursor to actually visiting the place in person?).

Anthony Smith takes this concept one dimension further, into time, when he suggests "...one could walk into the gallery of the Elgin Marbles and be transported back into ancient Greece. One could go into ones' local museum and be offered a trip into the streets and squares as they were in former times." My only comment would be to ask why you should, in future, need to forsake your own living-room to do this!

Global communications will, at long last, create the global village - amongst IT users - and this should open all borders; and allow for better understanding between peoples and nations.

Remote video contacts, teleconferencing or individual video-phone, are already a reality. The growth in acceptance of this mode of communication - amongst the general population - may, however, be relatively slow during the first decade of the 21st century; though it will rapidly accelerate - especially for use by dispersed groups of family members or friends - as its usage by those with shared needs takes off, and demonstrates its benefits.

There is considerable confusion between the promoters of the super-highway and those of Internet, which in - technical - fact should not be seen as similar concepts, let alone as compatible systems. Even so, the rewards are so high that the problems will be sorted out - probably by offering a hybrid combination of the two - to form the backbone of the information society.

Virtual reality travel, to wherever and whenever your whim takes you, may also become a new market.

ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES

Perhaps the most immediate impact will, though, be on the structures of organisations - in the West at least. Information, and control signals, have traditionally flowed vertically in such organisations. In the past we all had had our bosses, and some of us have had our sets of subordinates too. The new communication paths already are horizontal. This is the way that such IT based communications flow; and there is no way that any manager can halt this! In future we may just have our peers. Thomas Stewart says, in the context of electronic networks, "In a flat organisation, an employee is likely to form more and stronger work relationships with peers than with bosses or subordinates." Networking in this way has to be clearly recognised as a new form of communication - with new rules.

One of the effects of this new form of communication has been the redefinition of many managers' roles. Many, indeed, have lost their jobs - since a significant part of middle managers' roles was to provide information to those below them in the hierarchy; and, with that information now provided direct, this role no longer exists! Indeed, increases in unemployment - in general - are often blamed on the IT Revolution. It is a convenient scapegoat; which - even better for those using it as their excuse - is in no position to challenge what is being said. In this way,  'Structural Unemployment' is supposed to reflect an underlying shift in employment away from those who do not have the requisite (IT) skills.

UNEMPLOYMENT

On the other hand, somewhat surprisingly, only half our general groups mentioned unemployment as a major driver of future changes. In the specific context of 'structural unemployment', The Economist[n] points out that "In the past 200 years millions of workers have been replaced by machines. Over the same time period, the number of jobs has grown almost continuously, as have the real incomes of most people in the industrial world. Furthermore, this growth and enrichment have come about not in spite of technological change but because of it." It goes on to provide more recent evidence "Despite a huge investment in computing and so on over the past decade, unemployment in the United States, at around 5.5%, is currently no higher than it was in the 1960s...This is hardly a persuasive sign that IT is a big cause of unemployment", and it then goes on to explain "From an individual's point of view, process innovation (making things more effectively)...may indeed reduce employment. But the economy as a whole will enjoy compensating effects." It seems, to us at least, that the current unemployment problems can just as easily be related to the 'revolutionary pains', mentioned in the opening chapter. Once we have fully entered the new order, and stability has returned, full employment may also follow[30].

More important, though, is the impact it has in general - even on the workers at the lower levels. The effect here is to give them much more flexibility - and power. The best analogy is with Japanese structures, where such horizontal communications have long dominated - albeit for different reasons - and have often led, as a result, to the wider implementation of Human Resource Strategies (HRS) - which recognise the scale of the investments in the human infra-structure in organisations - and indeed to the emergence of HRS-led corporations such as Toyota. It seems likely that - despite the aggressive management styles which accompanied the removal of middle management (delayering) in the late 1980s - this move to (softer) HRS approaches will also develop in the West. 

The Communications Revolution is already having a dramatic impact on organisational structures; leading to a redefinition of managers' roles and a move to softer HRS (Human Resource Strategies) in terms of relations with staff in general. This will subsequently extend to social structures in general.

PUBLISHING

As one major example, the industry sector which will probably experience the most changes as a result of the IT and Communications Revolutions is that of publishing. There will inevitably be a dramatic leap in the volume of material published; in one form or another. The most important change, though, will be in the form; printed publications may still expand somewhat in volume, but the exponential growth will be found in the electronic forms of publishing.

Up to the last year or so, I would have insisted that the book - with its ease of use and user friendly interface - would never be replaced, and it won't be for many uses and for many people, but we now have the technology emerging which will seriously challenge even this last bastion of the printed world. It is now quite possible to imagine a book sized (and book weight) computer (something like a notebook computer) which will show you (in the same detail and with the same clarity as a book) a whole page of print. It will be as easy to read this as a normal book - indeed, even easier in poor light[31]. It will, however, also be possible to instantaneously look-up references; possibly, through cell-phone/modem connections, even in another book[32]! Of course, the 'book' could, at the same time, allow the reader to keep in touch with any messages; and with an ear-piece (which would in any case be needed for multi-media material - another advantage) would allow it to also operate as a mobile telephone (possibly eventually even a video-phone!). Even so, it has to be admitted it will still be - in its most important respects - a book! For some purposes a picture may be worth a thousand words, a phrase often on the lips of multi-media suppliers, but for many others - especially in the worlds of ideas - a sentence may be worth a thousand pictures. One only has to consider the part of the US Declaration of Independence which starts 'We hold these truths to be self evident...' to appreciate the inordinate power of even simple words.

The form(s) of publishing will probably cover a wide spectrum[33] - far more so than at present. It may offer, seamlessly in one package, printed material - albeit usually displayed on a screen, pictures and diagrams - probably animated in key areas, video and audio - possibly in 3D. The exact form will depend entirely upon the requirements of the publisher and the authors - which may become a team (as in a television documentary, which currently deploys much the same range of skills, as we already do at the Open University). Of course, it will ultimately also have to meet the demands of the consumer.

Indeed, the biggest beneficiaries will be the consumers. We will have the whole (electronically published) world at our finger-tips - in whatever form we find most useful[34].

This will make knowledge in general available to a much wider audience - not least because it will be available in the form almost everyone needs - and in much greater depth. We will almost all become intellectuals; a joke at present, but which may genuinely become a major development for the second half of the 21st century! Ian Pearson nicely encapsulates these developments by making the point that, where the first Industrial Revolution removed the need for physical labour by humans - and with it the advantage enjoyed by the strongest men - the current revolution is removing the need for the knowledge held in human heads - removing the advantage currently enjoyed by our most knowledgeable citizens (including a large proportion of the professional classes!). What skills will be needed next is less clear. Possibly these will be communications skills - many of our 'workers' already are communicators[35] (from those in selling to those in the social services) - or possibly integrators or synthesisers - who can take disparate pieces of information and (with a soupçon of creativity) turn them - synthesise them - into something more valuable.

Perhaps the most revolutionary form of the new publishing will be that undertaken on the small-scale; as 'face-to-face publishing'. It will be possible for potential authors to produce their 'books' (then, of course, more likely to be as multi-media package) themselves; using the resources (of information acquisition and manipulation) described earlier. Then they will be able to offer them for sale through the networks. Already, the great majority of the hundreds of thousands of titles published sell just a few hundred copies - which is too often a remarkably unprofitable process (at all stages, from typesetting through to stocking by book-shops) for everyone involved. Personal (electronic) publishing on the networks, best described as 'face-to-face' publishing because the numbers of 'copies' will be so small that the author/publisher will be able to deal individually with the readers. So it will probably take over this role; and will probably represent - once again - the largest number of titles and possibly the largest volume overall (with literally millions of titles selling only a few hundreds, or even a few tens, of ‘copies’ each).

The publishing industry will possibly see the greatest changes of all; with massively expanding sales volumes, based on new, electronic forms of presentation. This will bring in major new providers but, especially, will dramatically improve the availability of published information for consumers - opening it up to more of them, in greater depth.

The most revolutionary aspect may the emergence of individual, 'face-to-face', publishing where the author will also be publisher - for the many publications selling just a few hundred copies or less.

TECHNOLOGICAL HIGHLIGHTS

As we end the chapters on technology, it is worth repeating - as it has already been a number of times - the key fact in this scenario is that almost all resources are now in effectively unlimited supply. The result is a very optimistic view; with a nicely incremental growth in the many new things we will soon find ourselves able to do - in the ultimate we will be able to do whatever we choose to do. Not least, medical advances will significantly extend our lifespan - perhaps beyond 90 or even 100 years - so that we will also have the time to do what we want.

The exploration of space - and then of its colonisation - will bring massive impacts in terms of the availability of physical resources, and even the development of society in general. Not least, it will give us new - physical - frontiers to be expanded for the benefit of humankind.

Despite the amount of space given to reporting the minutiae of the IT Revolution, in this book almost as much as in others, it is the exponential growth of electronic communications - the Communications Revolution - which now represents the most important technological driver for change. The ability to instantaneously access - no matter where you are - all the information stored on databanks around the world, and to communicate with all its inhabitants, will radically change individual lifestyles and the structures of society as a whole. Of course, in the shorter term there will be some limitations to this progress; the third world farmer may not be able to gain access immediately. On the other hand, as the resource - communication of existing information - is almost free, once one has the necessary electronic links (which are even now cheap enough for a large proportion of the world's population to afford), the impact of this revolution may reach its peak - world-wide - much earlier than many expect; perhaps in just a decade or so.

Not least, the symbiosis of humans with computer networks - with the existing slow interfaces through the existing terminals or much faster ones though the brain-computer links yet to come - will, in effect, produce a new level of human evolution; 'homo integrans'.

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