FUTURES RESEARCH

7038 - SIX DRIVERS (for 3M course at LBS)

Over the past five years, as part of the Open University’s ‘Futures Observatory’ (jointly sponsored by the Strategic Planning Society and reported earlier this year in ‘Future Revolutions’, by David Mercer and published by Orion Business, the following have emerged as the key forces shaping the future of society over the next quarter of a century:

1. Individual Empowerment

Although this is a slow, and often almost invisible process, it is the most wide-ranging, and radical, force at work. It’s main elements are;

Woman’s Century – many of the leaders of the new revolution will come from this ‘oppressed’ majority! They are, in any case, better qualified to work in the new information society, and to provide the more caring management leadership now demanded.

Different Forms of Family – the new, extended family forms which are emerging from the breakdown of the nuclear family model, will offer many women sole ownership of the family.

New Politics – the decline of political parties will continue at an accelerated pace. People in general now understand that they have the right to determine their own destinies.

New Values & Search for Meaning – the move to individual empowerment will generate the need for a comparable shift in values – putting the position of society (and its social values) into the new perspective of personal fulfilment.

2. Symbiosis with Computer

This, as yet little appreciated aspect, will be the most revolutionary outcome of the PC revolution;

Personal Evolution Complements Social Evolution - over recent history it has been society which has been evolving, but now - especially with a form of symbiosis with the networks emerging (perhaps even as 'chips in the brain') - we can now also see a real possibility of an evolving form of human being.

Communications Age – at last, through the Internet and its future developments, we can live in a fully  integrated world. The e-commerce revolution will, though, mean that ‘the medium is the product’

Homeworking – the emerging technology may be significant enough for this idea to live up to its long-promised benefits, with major implications (in terms of house design) for the construction industry, and - boosted by travel taxes - may even limit the growth of the car.

Disappearing Computers & Mobile Communication – with reducing costs, computing power will be incorporated where it is needed – running everything, but transparent to users – and will follow the individual, rather than be tied to a location.

3. Ageing

Although this is seen, by the alarmists, as a problem, it may turn out to be highly beneficial (not least for those of us who will live healthily for longer);

Medical Technology – will enable chronic illness – rather than acute crisis management - to become the focus, resulting in the healthily ageing population.

Demography – so, coupled with declining birth-rates world-wide, the balance of the population will shift from the young to the old; potentially posing problems in the funding of welfare, though this should easily be rectified by increases in the age of retirement.

Employees as Customers – the coming skills shortage will bring back older members of the working population into the labour market and will turn the labour market on its head; with the need for working conditions which are attractive to them.

4. LLL (Life-Long-Learning)

Much has been hyped in this area, but little has been achieved though –probably led by the Open University - practical developments will ultimately appear;

CPD (‘Continuing Professional Development’) – at one extreme, the emerging skills shortage will in any case require extensive on-going re-education (according to the EC of up to 90% of the working population), especially of older and already skilled staff, but this will be increasingly focused on individual fulfilment.

U3A (‘University of the Third Age’) – at the other extreme, the older cohorts – including those approaching (and already in) retirement – will take this individual focus to its logical extreme; creating informal, socially based, ‘clubs’ for their own further education.

Generation Gap – over the next 25 years the proportion of the older groups who have been exposed to higher education (and hence may be more open to the culture of LLL) will grow from less than 10% to more than 30% (and that of the younger groups may come exceed 60%); with significant implications for the development of LLL.

5. New Economics

The knowledge society, coupled with the moves to personal empowerment, will result totally new organisational forms and business processes, requiring substantial changes to economic theory;

New ‘Products’ - lowest cost products are likely to be replaced by highest value knowledge communications. The resulting new economics will need to be developed to account for a society in which the role of most individuals lies in communications, not even in knowledge.

Knowledge - the speed of growth will continue to increase, but the period of rapid, uncontrolled innovation will come to an end.

Rigid Organisational Structures Become Fluid Networking Co-operatives - the shape of the organisation will increasingly change to one with fluid boundaries, inside (with networking and self-managed teams) and outside (with new alliances), which favours co-operation - especially with its stakeholders - rather than competition.

Network Trust – with such complexity of offering, and with the ‘net’ (whatever that might become!) offering such a wide range of (largely unknown) suppliers, the most important feature will be that of ‘trust’ – established conventionally by branding but increasingly through new, specialised intermediaries.

Smaller Businesses Working Together In Less Formal Ways - internet developments, with telecomms effectively free and the computer becoming invisible, will lead to massive interconnectivity shaping ideas and ideology.

6. New World Order

Global Groupings Replace Nation States - new 'global values' are being imposed on nation states; which no longer can maintain their absolute sovereignty. But these will be based on pan-national groupings (such as the UN and especially the EU, which has an almost messianic mission in this context) rather than nations (such as the US or Russia – which will continue their attempts to impose hegemony).

EU/EC (European Union/European Commission) - indeed, the major political force, by example as much as by inherent power, will be the EU; which will take over global leadership (but not hegemony) from the US. It will, though, do this on the basis of the power of its philosophies rather than its armies or even financial muscle (though, as easily the world’s largest economic power, that will also be important).

Globalisation – continues its progress, giving a genuine global village where global governance - replacing the nation state (and its political parties) - allows resources to be co-ordinated globally

Legitimation – the new values arising from individual empowerment will give rise to major problems of legitimation for national governments (but not the EU, which – as a new institution with few hostages to history – will find these easier to match).

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