FUTURES
RESEARCH
7222 Unpublished – Technological Growth
SIX KEY FACTORS IN TECHNOLOGICAL GROWTH
This article describes the highlights from the first of three scenarios developed - from research undertaken over the past five years - by the United Kingdom’s Open University. This research has involved work with more than 1,000 large organizations; including governments as well as the leading multinationals. The other two scenarios, covering social issues and economic/political issues respectively, will be described in later issues of this journal. Between them, the three scenarios summarize the most likely patterns of development over the next thirty years. Interestingly, despite the academically rigorous nature of the research techniques employed - which might have been expected to result in conservative findings, many of the developments reported (especially those to be described in later issues) often are more radical than most futurists allow for!
Looking, here, at some of the technological changes - which typically initiate the overall processes of long-term development - the first scenario is rather more in line with the approach to the future which traditional futurists adopt. Indeed, in line with tradition, it generally sees the future in the optimistic terms of steady incremental growth - leading to ever increasing standards of life. Thus, if we look just at the six factors we have found to be most important for realizing this technologically better future, the starting points are typically the wealth-creating ‘inventions’ from which they are derived. Even so, this scenario still holds some surprises. Not least, as we will see from these highlights, the greatest impact comes in terms of the way that these forces will change society in general:
1. PHYSICAL PRODUCTS TO INTANGIBLE SERVICES
The steady growth in technological development is hardly new, it has indeed become the very foundation of our way of life. On the other hand, perhaps the most fundamental new factor is the availability, extending for the first time to almost all individuals, of effectively unlimited resources. As one part of the emerging equation, on the supply-side, we already have the technology to productively exploit the resources of the whole planet; and the potential to meet any remaining shortfalls by seeking out the riches which surround us in space. More important, the other side of the equation - on the demand-side - the rate of growth, even for existing physical products, is slowing. At the same time, we are finding ever more efficient ways of turning raw material, and especially energy, into these physical products. Micro-technology, in particular, now allows us to shrink our new devices to ever smaller sizes; requiring ever less quantities of raw materials and energy. Beyond this, the intelligence built into these devices offers optimization of performance micro-second by micro-second. We now have many genies; who serve us, without our even realizing this is happening, and these - impeccably behaved - new servants, in the service economy, are electronic not human.
The most important development, though, is the service economy switch from ‘hardware’ to ‘software’. The most dramatic growth has taken place in terms of the provision of intangible services - especially those in the sectors most directly served by information technology. Almost by definition, these services demand the use of little or no physical resources. There can be, and will be, a massive explosion in the provision of such services without anything more than a very minor increase in their demand for physical inputs. One of those involved in our research complained that the young are only interested in “sex, drugs and rock and roll”; only for others to add that this might equally be seen as an especially eco-friendly lifestyle - demanding the use of almost no physical resources!
There is no longer any reason, therefore, why we cannot resource any project we consider worthwhile.
2. SYMBIOSIS WITH THE COMPUTER NETWORKS
There can be few people in the developed world who have not heard about the power of computer communications, and understand - and often fear - how dramatically it might affect the future of their work and play. On the other hand, there are very few who realize just how radical are the implications for the future of society. The changes have, for instance, already started to demolish concepts which have long been part of our everyday lives. Thus, location or geography no longer circumscribes our everyday activities. Through the Internet, I ‘talk’, on a daily basis, with colleagues in Europe and the US; as well as in Australia and the Far East. This now comes naturally to me. I no longer marvel at this miracle of science. I just accept it and get on with my work - behaving as if they were in the same building.
Rather less obviously, the changes have transformed the way I talk with these people. I can now have a simultaneous conversation with large numbers of them - hundreds , perhaps thousands of them - almost as easily as with one of them. This is a totally new form of human communications, and - though it is transforming the information flows in organizations and across communities - we have yet to come to terms with exactly what it means to society.
The increasing ability to instantaneously access the information in the great libraries of the world has been described - often in considerable technical detail - but few authors have commented upon the social changes this may bring. Thus, for instance, it is set to destroy the need for certain types of expert knowledge. In the past, if I wanted to know the answer to a question I had to retrieve it from my own memory, or pay an expert to retrieve it from his. This has been the case for the past few centuries; and it shaped our education systems, and our professions. Now I can just ask my friendly PC, sitting on my desk, to find an answer. This development will undermine the value of much of the personal (knowledge) capital we have acquired with our education. No longer will we have to study - over years and decades - to gain the knowledge that will carry us through life. All you now need is a PC and a phone line! As a result, educationalists - such as myself - will have to radically rethink our roles. We will need to forget the straightforward teaching of facts, and replace this in our curriculum with the more fundamental skills our students now will need to retrieve this data; and teach them how to synthesize it into the meaningful new knowledge which best meets their needs. This will be a major challenge for even the best of teachers.
It will also render the knowledge base of a number of professions largely redundant. This may pose major problems for some of them, where a deliberate limitation on the acquisition of this knowledge was often the way that they very profitably maintained a closed-shop. It may even mean that members of such professions will join the ranks of the unemployed; and, with lawyers and doctors joining the queues for state handouts, and their peers worried by the prospect of this also happening to them, we may expect the pressure on governments - for a more equitable society - to increase.
One unpredictable, but potentially very potent, fall-out from these developments is that we ourselves will change. Previously we were self-contained. Maybe we occasionally referred to our library of books, or to out photograph album if we wanted to remember the past, but what made us distinct individuals - especially in terms of our accumulated memories - lay inside our heads. Now, increasingly, some parts of these memories - and hence of our identity - reside in a computer. It is fair to describe the result as a form of symbiosis between humans and computers, and computer networks. Further, this externalized self will increasingly overlap with the external selves of others. So, in small ways at first, we may start to adopt a stronger shared identity, perhaps eventually something approaching a hive mentality. Very few commentators have recognized this emerging phenomenon - which goes directly against the dominant trend in society of moves away from community towards individualism. Nobody, not even myself or those involved in our research or even the science-fiction writers, can begin to guess where this symbiosis will lead us. Who, or even what, will we be by the middle of the 21st century?
3. LONGEVITY
It is probable that the average human lifespan in the middle of the 21st century will be - in the developed world at least - in excess of a hundred years. This is one factor which has been recognized by governments; though, typically, they have misunderstood its implications - and panicked! They have seen lifespan increasing, but have also seen the age of retirement decreasing; and have nervously asked how the resulting smaller working population could support the much increased group of those in retirement. In an age of uncertainty, indeed, this has caused national leaders to call into question the whole concept of the welfare state - which was one of the great achievements of the 20th century.
In reality, it is very good news! Longevity means that individuals will be able to choose to extend their working lives. Better health, combined with the IT revolution which is creating jobs which are more suitable for the elderly, means that this choice will be much more widely available; and will be taken by most members of the increasingly active (especially politically active) ‘gray market’. On the other hand, they will undoubtedly demand, and receive, better working conditions and, especially, more suitable (and more fulfilling) roles in society. The overall effect, though, will be that the manpower resources available to society will expand to more than cover the demands made by any increased period of retirement. The present working life of 45 years (or 35 years if you include the redundancy programs of the 1990s, which - in the guise of early retirement - threw so many onto the scrap-heap) will extend to perhaps 60 years; increasing overall resources by more than a third - and enriching, not impoverishing, nations. Combined with the dramatic improvements in productivity we have seen over recent decades, this indicates an even richer future for all. It will be even richer if governments abandon the perverse dogma that a large pool of unemployed workers is necessary for economic success. This is almost the last Marxist dogma (the ‘reserve army of the unemployed’) being kept alive - paradoxically, by those right-wing politicians who opposed Marx in every other way!
4. ‘DRUGS’ FOR WORK AND PLEASURE
One of the more controversial developments will be the wider legalization of drugs which enhance performance or alter moods. The position here is currently bedeviled by the illegality of many such substances, though even then there can be great confusion; supposedly, Prozac is a miracle drug, helping millions to a better life, but Ecstasy is a scourge, blighting the lives of teenagers. And, of course, alcohol and tobacco - arguably the most harmful drugs of all - are available in shops and bars everywhere. Indeed, the most invidious side-effects, misuse and not least the drug economy, too often arise directly from the illegality of the drugs rather than their inherent chemistry!
The driving force here is the growing usage by a significant proportion of the population. As with prohibition in the US earlier in the 20th century, when a large proportion of the population ignores the law it becomes ineffective. In short, certain classes of drugs are already in widespread use and legalization is only a matter of time - there can be no turning back.
Decriminalizing use of these substances will, though, allow better control; at two extremes. In the first instance, the underlying problems arising from factors such as deprivation, which now emerge as symptoms in the form of drug dependency and gang warfare, can be addressed directly - without the confusing veneer of moral outrage which is too often now the response to them. At the other extreme, the substances themselves can be subjected to rigorous quality controls - which will reduce the number of drug-related deaths - and can be the legitimate subject of the sort of behavior altering campaigns which have been successfully used against tobacco.
More interestingly, it will allow commercial providers - especially the pharmaceutical companies, and maybe even the tobacco multinationals - to develop more suitable, safer alternatives. The products will no longer be the result of happy accidents, but will be designed to produce exactly the effect the user desires; with no unwanted side-effects. Sex-enhancers or sociability boosters, will do just that; and nothing else. At work, intelligence or memory boosters will routinely enhance productivity.
5. OUTER SPACE WAITS
There is one factor which is more a matter of timing than of probability. It is inevitable humanity will eventually colonize space - that between the planets as much as the planets themselves - since our TV networks are already full of soap operas describing this as a reality for it not to happen. Indeed, this is accepted as a fact by the majority of the population, not just the TV program schedulers, and most, according to our research, see this starting in the relatively near future. Nevertheless, real activity, on such a substantial scale, may be more delayed than everyone allows for. The establishment, for instance, has yet to recognize the popular mood - perhaps because its members disdain TV viewing - and it has failed to direct sufficient resources in this direction. more fundamentally, if we look for historical analogy, we need to recognize that the comparable commercial development of North America lagged several centuries behind its discovery.
The timescale, therefore, depends not upon technology - we already have the knowledge and resources to undertake massive programs of colonization - but upon political will. When the time does come, however, the colonization of space will dominate even the earth-bound economies.
6. A WELCOME OPTIMISM
Perhaps the most important element arising from the technological scenario is totally intangible. It is simply a mood, but no less powerful for that. It is optimism about the future; a belief that an ever better future will come about.
This might appear to fly in the face of the prevailing mood. We are regularly told that the future is bleak. Uncertainty, and chaos, await us all. Furthermore, even our own research showed that most people recognized the fact that everyone else was pessimistic. Paradoxically, though, individuals were themselves optimistic about their own future; public pessimism, private optimism! This optimism is, indeed, well founded - we already have to hand all that is needed for a rich future.
It is our leaders, especially politicians and journalists, who are out of step. The real danger is that we will be persuaded by them to abandon our natural optimism, and to lapse into self-defeating pessimism.
CONCLUSIONS
Our technologically determined future is very bright. We will live longer, with greater resources at our command. How we live, though, may be very different. We are likely to enter into a form of symbiosis with the computer networks, and will make positive use of drugs to enhance our performance and to enjoy life more; and many of us will do this in space colonies. The future, justifiably in this context, is a very optimistic one.
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