FUTURES
RESEARCH
7227 Proposal - Futures Observatory
[initial proposal to formalise the Futures Observatory work]
Memo: Keith Bradley - OUBS Director of Research 4 February 1996
From: David Mercer
INFORMAL NOTES ON A PROPOSED 'FUTURES OBSERVATORY'
Following our useful discussion, I thought I would provide you with some background on our work - and especially on our proposed future work.
It should be stressed, at the outset, that these are very brief notes (dictated off the top of my head!) on the current position. A formal proposal is scheduled for mid year - after the approval of the new 'Managing the Future' MBA course, with which it is linked, and after I have talked to some of the other organisations working in the field.
BACKGROUND
The technical background, and the key results can be seen in the attached papers - due for presentation at this years round of conferences. In more detail they can be seen in the 'book' (all 150,000 words of it).
In essence, though, we have been working on this project for around seven years. In the initial stages this work was intended as providing the context for B885. In practice, it also highlighted the need for research into the theory and techniques of prediction. This is - I would suggest - not untypical of course team work in the initial stages of development. Thus, for instance, similar work on a marketing course produced a number of new frameworks for strategy. As yet these have only been presented at conferences, not published in journals - but will be in a major book being published at the beginning of 1997 by Penguin. In this way, I would also suggest, most of our central academics are likely to prove to be valuable researchers; given the chance, and the MBA Board agreed to my proposal that all MBA course development should also be seen as a source of research material.
The subsequent research has also used the B885 course in a number of ways:
a) Students as Researchers - like a number of other courses we used TMAs from 200 students' - via content analysis - to explore research questions (here scenarios of the future). We are also using them (400 B885 students) to quantify the qualitative results via a survey (using semantic differentials - across 'importance' and 'likely date of implementation' - for the 150 drivers for change we have identified).
b) Course Resources - we also have used some of the resources, in particular computer conferences (which brought together nearly 500 individuals from our students, from the Strategic Planning Society - SPS, and Demos), being made available to the course as a support for our leading-edge research.
c) Course Team - we are now using the 'Managing the Future' team as a vehicle for physically bringing together (face-to-face) the few UK experts in futurology.
d) BBC - to a lesser extent we have also used the BBC videos as a vehicle for interviewing key leaders - the B885 video, for instance, included government leaders in Japan and the EU as well as the UK, and the heads of the main US TV networks and the Toyota board in Japan!
In this way, course team work and research can be very complementary. This should give us a major advantage over other universities - especially if we adopt a more productive approach to consultancy -though, so far, we have stubbornly refused to accept any of these the concepts in full Indeed, in many respects, we have actually opposed them. My work has all been done on an individual basis, with support from the courses only - almost none from the research system.
PARTNERS
The research has received significant informal support from a number of organisations, including:
Shell The Henley Centre PSI DTI
BT Leeds Metropolitan University
It has been formally sponsored by The Strategic Planning Society and Demos.
In the next stage, the 'Futures Observatory', we would propose to build upon our experience to formally bring in a number of such partners (especially those - commercial - partners who would fund it).
OUTPUT TO DATE
So far, the work has been reported at a number of conferences; though it is - as yet - difficult to find suitable journals to take it. The techniques (of scenario planning) have, though, been published in leading journals (Long Range Planning and Management Decision). The latest (qualitative results) are now being published - all 100,000 words - as a database on the Web (under the Centre for Strategy & Policy) and will - hopefully - also be published commercially.
The result is that we are now recognised as a leading UK centre of excellence in the field of futures.
PROPOSED 'FUTURES OBSERVATORY'
Please note that we have not yet formalised our thoughts, so the following are - so far - only partially developed ideas:
OBJECTIVES
The 'observatory' would be intended primarily to explore (hopefully to predict) future trends/developments across the whole of society - with a bias perhaps towards management issues. Our existing techniques (and theory - of 'expectations'), as well as out student base (initially on B885), will allow us to initiate this work without further funding - though the advent of new partners (and funding) would enable us to expand this work significantly.
We would then hope to engage some of the key actors in debates about these issues - and for this work further, new partners will be essential.
PARTNERS
We would envisage a range of different partners:
1) Students - our key resource, which is not available to others, is our (statistically) large students base, who can be used (especially on B885 and its successor) as 'consultants' who are willing (perhaps as part of TMAs) to spend not inconsiderable amounts of time investigating these topics in the context of their various organisations. We are proposing that a reserach asistant/fellow is funded by the new course (Managing the Future) to generate the Internet indices we will need - but, clearly, such a researcher would also contribute to the Obervatory’s work.
2) Academic Partners - we have already worked extensively with some (professional) organisations (especially The Strategic Planning Society and Demos - and now Leeds Metropolitan University, the only other UK university working in the field). We would envisage expanding this work, to more partners (including those outside of the UK), and in more depth with each of them.
3) Co-ordination of the Work of Other Groups - we are already starting to undertake this role (where the UK 'Futures Forum' is a rather passive 'talking-shop').
4) Commercial Partners (Fortune 500) - the most important extension would be - if possible - to a representative sample of these organisations. This should provide funding but, more important, access to the key players on the world scene.
PROPOSED RESEARCH
This, again, needs further debate, but - depending upon the level of support, especially from 'commercial' partners, and the resulting funding - various levels of research might be undertaken:
1) QUESTIONNAIRE RESEARCH WITH OUBS STUDENTS - the baseline work (already started with B885 in this year) would be surveys exploring (and quantifying) future trends.
2) 'GROUP CONSULTANCY' BY STUDENTS - we are proposing in 'Managing the Future' (due out in 1999) to use students working in groups - as part of their TMAs - to explore specific issues in some depth (one per group, with perhaps 60 groups each time), the results to be published (by them?) on the Web.
3) BRINGING TOGETHER THE RESULTS OF OTHER GROUPS - we are already starting to act as a focus for UK work on the future, and to receive reports of work from other groups on a sporadic, ad-hoc basis. We are increasingly seen as the central focus for such work.
If enough 'commercial' partners - with a suitably representative spread of interests - were forthcoming:
4) REGULAR FOCUS GROUPS - with representatives of these partners, exploring various aspects of the future (and informing them, not least by their involvement in these groups).
5) COMPUTER CONFERENCING - with these partners, to explore specific (topical) issues.
6) CONSULTANCY - working with these partners to help them develop their own plans.
If sufficient funds were forthcoming for in-house staff (in addition to those needed to undertake the above work):
7) LITERATURE SEARCHING - exploring the published literature, and possibly (if funds were sufficient) undertaking content analysis.
8) SPONSORED STAFF - providing staff for other organisations (such as the think-tanks) to work with them on their areas of research, but with the remit to inform us of developments.
INITIAL STEPS
Clearly, the best first step would be to find partners who would join us in a consortium.
Failing that, we would propose to wait on two developments: approval of the 'Managing the Future' course, which would provide much of the infra-structure for the work, and publication of the book reporting the research to date, which would provide the evidence of our capability.
We would them propose to undertake a several pronged approach:
DIRECT
a) FOUNDER 'ACADEMIC' SPONSORS - a personal approach to the organisations, such as SPS, Demos, SRI, SPRU, PREST and Henley Centre, to support our initiative.
b) FOUNDER 'COMMERCIAL' SPONSORS - a personal approach to the limited number of commercial organisations, such as BT, Shell and IBM, who we know are interested in the field (as well as some agencies such as the DTI and possibly the Millennium Commission) - with a view to obtaining pump-priming, as well as adding authority to the project.
INDIRECT
c) MAILINGS TO FORTUNE 500 - we would then undertake a programme of inexpensive mailings to the heads of these organisations (using the book, 'to which members of your management have contributed', as a hook).
d) PR - backing this up would be a PR campaign directed at the main media - the Guardian has already published a report of our Web site.
e) BBC - the proposed work with the BBC (initially on radio and TV 4 minute slots, but later on a TV series) would also be used to provide 'legitimacy' for the project.
Only then would we be in a position to start the main work!
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