FUTURES
RESEARCH
7230 (Wilter Co-Pub) - Removing Fear of Uncertainty
The most important results of our recent work, the culmination of a decade of global research involving several thousand managers and professionals from large organisations, are explored in terms of how long-range planning may be undertaken more effectively by a wider range of organisations. Thus, it has proved possible to use (simpler) scenario techniques to explore their likely futures and then develop suitable robust strategies to address these - usually with only a minimal impact on the existing optimal corporate strategies. The paper also includes summaries of the wider evidence which validates the fundamental concepts underpinning the concepts involved, but - especially - it illustrates the developments by their use with Surrey County Council.
Keywords
Marketing, Long-Range, Forecasting, Local Government, Strategy
Biographical Note
David Mercer is a senior lecturer in the Centre for Strategy and Policy, at the Open University Business School (OUBS). He is also Director of the its ‘Futures Observatory’. Sponsored by a number of multinationals, it is run jointly with The Strategic Planning Society.
Following her contributions to the project as a student on the OUBS MBA programme, at the time of the main work Adele Wilter was co-ordinating Surrey County Councils planning activities.
Personal References
As the paper makes extensive reference to the main author's previous published papers, these references are - in order to maintain anonymity, replaced with an asterisk (*) - and the list of matching references is included below:
Mercer, D, (1995a) Scenarios Made Easy, Long Range Planning, 28 (4), pp 81-86
Mercer, D, (1995b) Simpler Scenarios, Management Decision, 33 (4), pp 32-40
Mercer, D, (1996) Industry Scenarios - Short Termism Revealed, Industrial Management and Data Systems, 96 (8), pp 23-27
Mercer, D, (1997) Robust Strategies in a Day, Management Decision, 35 (3), pp 219-223
Mercer, D, (1998a) Long Range Marketing, Journal of Marketing Practice, 4 ( 6), pp 178-184
Mercer, D, (1998b) Marketing Strategy: the Challenge of the External Environment, Sage, London
Mercer, D, (1998c) The Future Quantified, Futures, 30 (4), pp 305-322
This paper describes a new set of techniques which allows managers, across a wide range of organisations, to make more meaningful projections of relevant long-range trends - even in an otherwise uncertain macro-environment - offering more effective management of the uncertain impacts coming from their external environments. The paper also demonstrates that, based on the results from a decade of working with managers and professionals from more than a thousand organisations across the private and public sectors, these techniques do offer a viable approach to long-range planning.
The paper also uses a case study to illustrate (in the boxed examples) practical use of the processes involved; by Surrey County Council as part of its corporate planning activities at the end of the 1990s..
Thus, between February and April 1997, four workshops - each made up of three groups (with eight members each) - were held as part of the Surrey County Council Fundamental Review. The purpose of the workshops was to bring together officers and members from Council, with the objectives of:
i) exploring future options for local government, using the scenario planning technique, which could feed into the Fundamental Review work
ii) providing an opportunity for informal discussion across departments, and between members and officers in a neutral venue
All the workshops were attended by a mixture of senior and front line staff from a number of different departments, and members from all three political parties. The first pilot workshop was also attended by a small number of invited external stakeholders, including chief executives from district councils and representatives from the voluntary sector. In total over 70 people participated.
To put the work into context, despite the fact that the greatest threats to organisational survival are usually those coming from the long-term future (Pfeffer & Salancik 1978), almost half (48%) of the 500 organisations reported on in our recent research (* 1998c, 1999) have planning horizons which stretch no further than three years ahead. Only a sixth (16%) look beyond five years ahead. It is less than surprising, therefore, that two thirds of them do relatively little scanning or even consider alternative futures.
We have, however, come to the conclusion that the main long-term planning problems experienced by such organisations are not the result of incompetent management but are typically caused by a simple confusion of objectives (* 1998a). More specifically, we have now come to believe that there should be at least two quite separate processes at work. That there are, or should be, two quite distinct legs to the strategy process – whether formalised or not – is best demonstrated by the simple table (I) below which clearly establishes the significant differences between them:
[Table I]
It should be clear, therefore, that there may be considerable tension between these two forms of strategy; when, as at present, they are usually undertaken as integral parts of the same overall strategy process. Understandably, half of these organisations admit to concentrating on short-term corporate strategy at the expense of long-range planning; and only 18% place any significant stress on the longer-term.
In it’s most sophisticated form, scenario planning takes months and even Accordingly, a format was developed which allows the complete process of such long-range marketing to be run in just one day (*, 1997). It was this one-day format which was the basis for the workshops conducted in Surrey.
Each day consisted of four main sessions:
Session one: Development of global scenario drivers for 2025
Session two: Development of local government drivers for 2010
Session three: Development of alternative scenarios
Session four: Development of robust strategies
The output of each day was compiled into a separate report distributed to the participants, and these four reports were also made available to a wider audience through their publication on the Surrey intranet.
Much as conventional marketing is based upon sound marketing research, long-range marketing demands the best possible environmental analysis; often referred to as 'scanning' (Aguilar 1967). Despite the theoretical importance of this, we have found that almost all the participants in our successful long-range marketing programmes have just used general reading as the main source of their analysis, combined only with the more specific information they receive from their industry and specialist press they read as a normal part of their work (* 1998b).
This is a major difference in approach from that adopted in the earlier use of scenarios during the 1970s; where scenarios were largely used as vehicles for bringing together the results of other - sophisticated - pieces of research such as cross-impact matrices (Godet 1982). Now, based on our development of Shell's work (Wack 1985), the use of scenarios more clearly recognises the essentially judgmental nature of the inputs.
In the case of the Surrey County Council work the breadth of knowledge
input was optimised by selecting the participants from the widest
possible range of backgrounds from both within and outside the council:
Department/Service area Total no of participants
County councillors 15
Social Services 16
Highways & Transport 7
Education 6
IS3 4
Libraries 3
Fire & Rescue
2
County personnel 2
County finance 2
PACA 2
County planning 2
Other 11
TOTAL = 72
Our new approach radically changes the first stage of the scenario focus-group process traditionally used (Goldman & McDonald 1987) so that the participants, themselves, are in control; and the main ‘documentation’ emerges directly from their deliberations. It has, to date, been successfully tested with more than 30 such ‘self-managed’ focus groups; covering almost 200 organisations.
The issues they identify are written on separate Post-It Notes which are then placed on the wall of the conference room (* 1998b). While the initial ideas stimulate others, even the quietest members of the group can participate without intervention by the moderator; since they only have to add a note to the wall. A major advantage of this new approach is that the main ‘documentation’ of the results is progressively accumulated in the form of the Post-It-Notes adhering to the wall.
In order to expand the perspectives adopted, though, this work is split into two halves. It starts with the development of global drivers.
Thus, the Surrey groups were first asked to consider drivers for change for the whole world in 2025. This allowed participants to quickly learn the techniques by exposure to a practical example and put all participants on an equal footing, thus overcoming the widely reported status problems encountered with other jury methods. Most important, though, it provided the widest possible perspective as the context for the rest of the day.
Thereafter, most groups tended to group the drivers into STEP headings (Social, Technological, Economic, and Political), as well as a fifth grouping concerned with the environment.
Below is a brief summary of the main drivers thus identified:
Social
An increase in the global population, as a result of people living longer will lead to larger numbers of older people with greater needs. A rich/poor divide, both within and between countries, may also develop. Work patterns are likely to change, with more part time and home working; with increased leisure time.
Technological
The IT revolution is likely to continue into the future and global communication will increase but may lead to increasing social isolation. Improvements in medical technology may keep people alive longer.
Economic
The global market, dominated by multi-nationals, is expected to continue to develop, with the world dividing into a number of major trading blocs.
Political
The nation state is expected to be of decreasing significance as the world divides into a number of regional and supranational blocs. This may also be accompanied by a rise in nationalism and fundamentalism. In this changing world, the future role of the UN is uncertain.
Environment
There is widespread concern with the possible impact of diminishing natural resources and of global warming. Space travel and exploration is one possible solution to these problems.
In general, these groups of 'drivers' were similar to those produced by other groups involved in our wider research. The only major factor missing, perhaps, was that of the impact of 'individual empowerment'; and, in particular, that of the growing power of women.
It was only in the second session that the scenario focus groups were asked to specifically consider the drivers which might apply to their own industry sector:
The second morning session, therefore, focused on the drivers likely to impact on Local Government in 2010.
Working in the same groups, participants first removed Post-It notes containing global drivers which were unlikely to effect local government. They then added new ideas to those already displayed. A summary of some of these is set out below.
Social
Demographic changes will lead to an increased demand for services from the elderly, the young, and the disabled. Increasing expectations of consumers may fuelled by measures such as citizens charters and league tables. The fragmentation of society into the haves and have nots is expected with resultant inequalities. An increase in crime, possibly linked to an increase in unemployment, is also anticipated. Greater leisure time and demands for life long learning opportunities are also important future drivers.
Technological
Developments in technology are likely to lead to new methods of service delivery, communication, and information provision.
Economic
Changing work patterns are likely, for example tele- and flexi-working and labour mobility may grow. Links with Europe and the influence of the EU will also be important.
Political
An increase in the involvement of local people in community affairs will lead to the strengthening of local democracy, and of increased consultation, advocacy and partnerships. The tension between local and national politics and policies is expected to continue. The future role of local authorities as enablers and/or providers, coupled with possible increased privatisation of services, is also of significance.
Environment
Transport congestion, pollution and waste management are key areas of concern. Demographic changes, such as increasing numbers of single households, will lead to an increase in the demand for housing and greater pressures on the environment.
The outputs from this self-documenting focus group approach are input to the scenario forecasting process itself, though in a much simpler form (* 1995a, 1995b) than the approaches which were more usually adopted in the past (Van Der Heijden 1996).
Thus, the third session - at the start of the afternoon - required the groups to develop two alternative and complementary future scenarios of local government, based on the drivers identified earlier, and to find a title which described the overall theme encapsulated by the alternate groups of drivers.
Across the range of a dozen different groups, a variety of such scenarios were thus developed, as illustrated by the six examples below:
1. Big is Best vs Small is Beautiful
Big is Best describes a future which is less sensitive to local issues. Services are provided within a mixed economy through contracts, with local government being both an enabler and provider which, while benefiting from economies of scale, reduce consumer choice. Counties disappears in favour of unitary authorities with fewer councillors, who are paid for their services.
In contrast the Small is Beautiful scenario suggests a future which is more responsive to local issues and offers greater choice; but with reduced responsibility for counties, as a result of increased government control of finances, the transfer of some areas of responsibility, and the adoption of a pure enabler role.
2. Environment (long term sustainable) vs Economic (short term)
The Environment scenario foresees a future in which there is a contemplative, caring, socially conscientious society; with collective responsibility reflected through community self help projects. The population is generally healthier as a result of increased participation in leisure activities. Comprehensive education is provided in community schools, followed by flexible employment opportunities, e.g. teleworking. Traffic congestion and pollution is controlled through the provision of subsidised public transport, with reduced spending on roads.
In contrast, in the Economic scenario there is a larger infrastructure offering more jobs to highly paid skilled staff. There are reduced restrictions on business, and the removal of green belts. Inward investment is encouraged.
3. Carve Up (American model) vs Consolidation (European model)
In the Carve Up scenario there is a reduced and fragmented role for local government, which adopts a more business-like focus. Departments such as social services, education, and highways are removed from local government to be replaced by utility boards with elected representation; with an increase in sponsorships and partnership working. Citizens juries supplement the activities of elected members.
The alternate Consolidation scenario foresees an increased role for local government, despite an increase in contracting. Partnerships with both national and supranational agencies are forged.
4. Current Model extended vs Devolved Model
In the Current Model extended scenario the local authority sets policy, determines resources, provides services, and monitors results, ensuring equity of delivery. It is service oriented and democratically accountable.
In the Devolved Model scenario the local authority sets policy and determines resources, but then ensures services are provided. Resources are therefore both devolved and combined with those of other organisations e.g. health, voluntary organisations.
5. Democratic vs. Service
In the Democratic scenario there is a focus on the community and democracy through the election of local members. The main driving factor is loyalty to an area which results in concern for a locality and local access.
In the Service scenario there is a focus on the delivery of service through appointed, functional boards. The main driving factor is the customer and the desire for efficiency.
6. Safety net vs Spread the Net
In the Safety net scenario there is minimum provision with rationing operated in partnership with the community. Best use is made of available resources but council tax is limited.
In the Spread the Net scenario service provision is determined by local communities. The county is abolished in favour of unitary authorities, with an enabling and empowering role. Statutory partnerships result while the community charge is capped.
The fact that there were so many seemingly different sets of scenarios might worry some theorists - who are looking for more definitive maps of the future. In fact, the greater the number of (substantial) elements which are recognised the better. In any case, though the titles were very different and some of the content descriptions varied, in many respects the various scenarios were more alike than different!
The next step is that of identifying the key issues/turning points. This turns out to be a critical aspect of the process; since only if the key turning points are identified in these scenarios will the (robust) strategies developed in response be truly valid. These turning points are a development of those drivers which result in life and death issues for the organisation.
Just a few simple steps are then needed to produce a long-range marketing plan. To add memorability, we refer to this as the PROACT process (* 1998b), as shown in Table II below:
[table II]
All of these steps, after the first one, are very simple - taking just a few minutes of effort.
As explained above, this should take the form of a formal 'map' of the turning points, which will decide the long-term future of the organization - perhaps its very survival. This is the step which defeats most organisations. If they cannot recognize what factors will determine their fate, then they will not be able to create the most effective robust strategies to address them.
The main emphasis in this process is, therefore, on prioritization. Which few factors are crucial to the future of the organization, matters of life and death, and which are relatively less important.
This is probably best still undertaken as a group process; though our practical experience suggests that most groups move, at this stage, from the use of Post-It-Notes to use of more mundane flip-charts to communicate and record their decisions
What is needed here is a set of strategies to protect against (or to capitalise on) what has emerged from the previous step - in terms of effectively addressing the key turning points. The best format for this part of the long-range marketing plan may just be a simple two-column table; with the key turning points in the left-hand column and the matching robust strategies in the right-hand one.
The next step takes these (long-term) ‘robust’ strategies and maps them onto the (short-term) ‘corporate’ strategy which already exists (or is in the process of emerging from the other parts of the strategy process). The essence is that each should be compared statement by statement. Ideally this should again be in the form of a simple table, with just two columns, one for each side of the comparison.
This will, therefore, immediately highlight the nature of any changes needing to be made. These should then be addressed, again statement by statement; as a third column to the table from the preceding step.
The final stage of any planning process should always be to do something!
The example we have been following, that of Surrey County Council, was run at an earlier stage of our development work; so this part of the process was then less formalised. In particular, though, it only went as far as developing the most effective robust strategies. Responsibility for the following stage, of merging these with the corporate strategies, was passed to the management team.
Thus, the final outcome was a variety of robust strategies, in a range of formats. The six sets of robust strategies described below are again a brief compilation of some of the most important themes.
Robust Strategy 1
Industrial and economic strategies need to be agreed in order to maintain the economic base of SCC to counter effects of cyber commerce and use of computers. Inward investment should be encouraged, as well as tourism, in order to improve the local economy. A suitable range of residential accommodation and leisure facilities need to be developed. The development of partnership working, including joint planning, needs to continue. An anti-poverty strategy would further assist in guiding service developments. An environmental policy is indicated, while the regional and national issues that affect SCC directly e.g. Terminal 5, widening of M25, need to be identified and a policy developed to deal with them. In addition there is a need to lobby to achieve locally developed policies.
Robust Strategy 2
The objective of this particular strategy is:
To promote quality of life which is meaningful to the community and integrates environmental and economic factors.
It consists of two key features:
1. Raise the profile of SCC to promote positive interest /involvement in Council business
2. Get the democracy focus in the right place i.e. when Members are elected and having trust from their constituencies and then decrease other consultative layers
These are to be achieved by the following actions:
Greater representation by members, with increased skill levels
Increased accountability of members to
their “stakeholders”
Commercial sponsorship/promotion
Make (members) managing the Council’s
business a full time job
Be guardians of the environment and a quality way of life
Robust Strategy 3
This strategy suggested that links between the centre of the Council and
departments, and between departments, should be strengthened by means of
improved communication and greater consultation with front line staff. A
resource for crisis management needs to be built in, by providing
opportunities for an outsiders to work on projects. A need for clearer
PR was noted. Finally it was proposed that Councillors should be used to
focus public concern, for example by being more available and by playing
a greater advocacy role.
Robust Strategy 4
There is a need to lobby at central government level in order to resist
threats to core services and funding. Current and potential customers
need to be identified, with provision being more targeted and responsive
through improved information. Access to services should be through one
stop shops and single call centres, developed in partnership with other
local service providers. Expertise in contract strategy and monitoring
needs to be developed, as well as increased training and development for
members.
Robust Strategy 5
SCC has strategic value - by virtue of its size, expertise, experience, and ability to benefit from economies of scale. However it needs to prepare for a number of key challenges:
1 Transport/environment/grid lock/pressure for more housing
Solutions:
use of school buses to reduce numbers of car users
improve public transport
reduce out of town developments
encourage home working
more stringent planning regulations
2 Ageing population
Solutions:
closer partnerships with Health
more support for carers
encourage personal saving for old age
3 Education for work skills
Solutions:
greater consultation with business
encourage life long learning
4 Quality of life
Solutions:
protect “green belt”
strategic leisure development
Robust Strategy 6
Finally, one - more creative - strategy was titled Giants Learn to Dance. It suggested that the organisation should:
Listen: to the music (customers, across the organisation and with the outside world)
Learn: train, exchange information with citizens, members & officers
Launch culture change: communicate, experiment, welcome risks and mistakes, value all participants, trust
Love continuous review: with smart techniques; question what? Why? How?; keep an eye on the external context; make proactive use of best practice
Leadership by members
These new approaches have been the subject of various pieces of research, in order to determine their practical value to managers.
The qualitative research in the earlier stages of this project, included 20 focus groups backed up by computer conferences - contributed to, over a number of years, by more than 1,000 individuals. The dimensions derived from these were then quantified by postal surveys, which cumulatively generated more than 2,000 respondents.
On the other hand, the key tests of the viability of the corporate techniques, and especially of the PROACT framework, took the form of content analysis of students' 'Tutor Marked Assignments' (TMAs, the scenario work they were obliged to undertake as part of the related course). Two sets of such content analyses were carried out; the first in 1993, a year after the start of the course when the initial set of techniques had bedded down, and five years later in 1998, when the major revisions reported in this paper had been introduced.
The results from the earlier stage were included in an earlier paper (* 1995a), which reported the usage of the various techniques, and (* 1996), which covered the outcomes. The problems revealed by the latter were the main stimulus for the changes (italicised below) now put in place.
The later definitive exercise, completed by 129 students taking the 1998 course (who agreed for their work to be used), indicated that - indeed - that the problems had been largely rectified:
1) Timescales - in the 1993 work only 22% of the students genuinely addressed the longer term (more than 10 years ahead). By 1998, however, virtually all students were working to the longer timescale; to the extent that it was difficult to find any examples of shorter-term viewpoints.
As indicated earlier in this paper, the new technique requires participants to complete a set of global scenarios - with 25 year ahead timescales - before they produce these sector scenarios with a clear 15 year horizon.
2) Wider Environment - similarly, although only 22% of 1993 students fully addressed the wider environment, virtually all did so in 1998.
The prior involvement in global scenarios was also intended to have this effect, but a clearer format and better instructions also helped.
3) Report Format - the impact here was less dramatic, where half (47%) of the 1993 cohort used the standard business report format and the equivalent figure in 1998 was four fifths (79%); though this does suggest, perhaps, that students were happier to integrate the approach into their daily work.
Though, again, it may also reflect the clearer instructions.
4) Robust Strategies - although only a small number (32) of cases were analysed, in this way, as part of the 1993 work, it was clear that almost all these students had failed to integrate their scenarios into the subsequent corporate strategies; indeed only 17% delivered strategies which effectively addressed the outcome of the preceding scenarios. All the 1998 scenarios did integrate the two.
Following the theme, of the importance of giving the clearest possible instructions, a number of techniques were not just taught on the related course but were also more clearly stated in the formal instructions for the student exercise than had been the case in 1993. In general, these techniques were then implemented by the great majority of students:
Important/Uncertain Matrix 69%
Use of Turning Points 88%
Production of Robust Strategies 88%
Use of PROACT Framework 78%
Those techniques only mentioned, without emphasis, in the accompanying theory recorded much lower results:
SWOT 10%
Core Competences 15%
The material which was given greater coverage in the main theory - though not in the formal instructions for the exercise - came midway between these extremes:
Systems Diagrams 31%
STEP Analysis 65%
The main lesson of this comparison, therefore, was that the more authoritative, and the clearer, the directions the more likely it is that they will be followed.
The main failure of the earlier, 1993, exercise was the narrow - and misplaced - focus for the outcomes of the students' scenarios. Thus (* 1996), the work of more than half of those students was dominated by regulatory and related political issues - effectively sub-contracting their sector's external strategies to government. A further quarter chose economic drivers as the dominant elements; but just 17% looked for technical, and 8% social, influences as the main drivers operating in their sectors.
In comparison, the 1998 students produced a much larger list (averaging 32 drivers each), which was much more evenly balanced; with just 25% difference in 'penetration' across the first 10 drivers. Regulation still appeared, indeed as the second most frequently mentioned driver, but the list of the top ten drivers was dominated by technology (3 entries) and social (5 entries) issues, more in line with our global scenario results.
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Although the overall list of turning points across all students was almost as long, the number identified by each student was much lower (averaging 8 turning points each). A comparison between the original drivers and these turning points showed a much greater emphasis on marketing issues. Much the same number of robust strategies (8 each on average) was nominated by students, though the direct links to the original drivers were less obvious. This evidence confirmed the anecdotal evidence derived from working directly with organisations, such as Surrey County Council, producing such scenarios and strategies.
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Where robust strategies address time-scales which are typically ten times as long as those of the related corporate strategy, any actions in the short-term will have much greater leverage; and can be correspondingly less dramatic. Indeed, our experience, over a number of such exercises, is that there is usually no measurable degradation in short-term performance; which makes the process much more acceptable to all the stakeholders!
Generally speaking, therefore, the impact of undertaking a separate identification of robust strategies is not, therefore, a major revision of corporate strategy. In general it is sufficient to develop a new prioritisation of existing strategy; with the emphasis subtly shifted to allow for the longer-term in addition to the shorter one.
Thus, we have found that, simply by separating out the longer-term robust strategies from the shorter-term corporate strategy in a formal long-range marketing plan, even those organisations which may be at the mercy of their external environments are better able to take account of the longer term; avoiding the problems which can arise from the short-termism generated by the pressures currently facing managements. In any case, if they follow sound marketing practices, the price they might have to pay, in terms of short-term steering, is usually small; where the long-term benefits – not least continued survival - may be great.
In the case of Surrey County Council the most important - immediate - outcomes were in general the identification of the alternative futures (and facing up to the uncertainty these imply) and developing the robust strategies to address these (as a complement to the optimal short-term strategies). A range of relatively simple, and affordable, strategies - mostly relating to marketing activities (including internal marketing processes) were identified. Adoption of these should have ensured the long-term survival of Surrey County Council. Interestingly, there proved to be almost no conflict between these and the requirements posed by the shorter-term optimal strategies.
One especially important outcome of the overall operation was, however, the value of the communication process itself. Working in the close-knit groups, under pressure (and without any hierarchical framework), very quickly consolidates relationships between participants from different parts of the organisation (especially, in this case, between officers and councillors); and with customers, where these are included. In particular, the underlying tensions are surfaced, and positively addressed. As a result, what often starts as body of managers which is fearful about what the future might hold usually finishes with a very optimistic one. This is, not least, because the managers' fears have been answered. Accordingly, the overall process turns out to be one which is highly motivational.
1. How does your organisation's short-term corporate strategy differ from its long range robust strategies?
2. What will be the key turning points in the longer term which may decide the future of your organisation?
3 How
do you document your long range plans?
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Table I - Comparison of short- and long-term |
‘CORPORATE’ STRATEGY' |
‘ROBUST’ STRATEGIES |
|
OBJECTIVES |
optimising performance |
ensuring survival |
|
CHARACTERISTICS |
short-term, with a single-focus |
long-term, with divergent-coverage |
REFERENCES
Aguilar, F. J, (1967) Scanning the Business Environment, Macmillan, London
Godet, M, (1982) From Forecasting to 'La Prospective', Journal of Forecasting, 1, 293-301
Goldman, A E & Susan McDonald, The Group Depth Interview: Principles and Practice, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey (1987)
Johnson, Gerry and Kevan Scholes, (1993) Exploring Corporate Strategy (3rd. ed.), Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey
Pfeffer, J. and G. R. Salancik, (1978) The External control of Organisations; A Resource Dependent Perspective, Harper & Row, New York
Taylor, Bernard (1984), Strategic Planning - Which Style Do You Need?, Long Range Planning, 17, pp 51-62
Taylor, Bernard, (1986) Corporate Planning for the 1990s: The New Frontiers, Long Range Planning, 17, pp 3-18
Van Der Heijden, Kees, (1996) Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester, Sussex
Wack, Pierre, (1985) Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids, Harvard Business Review, Nov/Dec 1985, pp 139-150
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