FUTURES RESEARCH

7261 Foresight – Life-Long-Learning

LIFE-LONG-LEARNING IS THE FUTURE

by David Mercer

[Mercer, D, Life-Long-Learning is the Future, Foresight, 1999]

The Futures Observatory, Open University Business School

Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, United Kingdom

Phone: 01908 232165 Fax: 01908 655898 Email: d.s.mercer@open.ac.uk

ABSTRACT

Over the next few decades, a dramatic expansion will be seen in Life-Long-Learning (LLL); on-going education following on from formal qualifications. The expansion of numbers in this sector - typically provided at present by short courses - will out-strip those needing degree level tuition in the formal level sector, and may even outstrip the resources of the potential providers. Since there are, as yet, relatively few commercial providers, it is likely that existing Higher Education (HE) institutions will be required to meet this demand; though few are as yet planning to meet this challenge.

A further sector, that of informal education, will also grow in importance where individuals now rate personal development more important than even career development. The new technologies, especially those of ICT, will be especially important in this sector. Paralleling these Internet developments will be those resulting from digitisation of television, which will significantly overlap the informal education sectors.

LIFE-LONG-LEARNING IS THE FUTURE

by David Mercer

INTRODUCTION

It is widely predicted, by educationalists and politicians alike, that education - in general - will soon become the largest 'industry ' in developed countries. Almost a decade ago, in 1993, Peter Drucker had already estimated that - in developed countries- up to 20% of GNP was being invested in education in its widest sense (10% on schooling, 5% on employers' continuing education and up to 5% on research). More recently, no less than half the managers in our (in our Open University Business School - OUBS - Futures Observatory) longitudinal research said that this is likely extend to 'global mass education' by around 2030.

The quantitative research, which is the basis for much of the rest of this paper, was carried out, between 1996 and 1998, on 500 Open University Business School management alumni and students across Europe. Supporting qualitative work involved 30 focus groups and computer conferences with more than 500 Strategic Planning Society members; as well as discussions with lead bodies such as the  European Commission (especially DG5), DfEE (UK Department for Education and Employment, Corporate Planning Division), IoM (UK Institute of Management), and DTI (UK Department of Trade and Industry, Foresight.

Education is also expected to be central to most nations' future developments - on almost all fronts - especially in terms of their economic growth. Amongst the managers and professionals in our longitudinal research, it is expected to be one of the most important 'non-disasters' (where the most important developments predicted - for example global water shortage the highest of all at 6.1 on the scale of 1-7 - are all threats to humanity). Thus, global mass education rates 5.2 in importance; compared with 5.5 for 'cures for major diseases (which is the highest of the 'positive' developments); and the probability of it occurring has increased by 5% over the past three years. In addition, with the growing emphasis on LLL (Life Long Learning), it is about to rapidly expand out of the earlier decades of an individual's life - to cover all their life-stages. Our respondents, in the longitudinal research, believed that, within 20 years, it will be life-long - with a probability of 45% and an importance for this of 5.1 - probably to retirement (44% with an importance of 5.2).As this will significantly expand the numbers undertaking programmes of education, and will dramatically change both the content and delivery logistics, it is now the major force acting on this sector; and one whose unpredictable progress generates the greatest uncertainty overall. This uncertainty poses a major challenge for all potential providers, be they in Higher Education (HE) institutions or the growing commercial sector. On the other hand, it potentially offers a significant opportunity for those entering these markets first. Although the numbers of individuals may be uncertain, the cost to government(s) should be containable at every level; since it is likely (based on our other surveys of OUBS alumni) that most of this on-going education will be funded by the students themselves. That, though, also means that they will be much more discriminating in their choice of suppliers!

Education covers a very wide range of activities, and will cover even more in a decade's time; when it will be the key element of the coming knowledge society. It is useful, therefore, to think of it in three main areas of lifelong learning opportunities. In terms of the definitions recently developed by the Open University, these are:

1)      Informal, geared to the educational well-being of the community at large with no associated commitment to structured study

2)      Short Courses and packs geared to a variety of needs for supported (open) learning

3)      Long Courses, constituting the building blocks for HE awards at all levels within the (OU) qualifications framework

This paper will look at the first two of these, which will constitute the basis for LLL, in reverse order.

SHORT COURSES

The most obvious changes in the short term are likely to occur in this sector; which now encompasses Life Long Learning (LLL), following on formal education. It is estimated that, over the next decade, up to 80% of employees will be forced to change to radically new technologies. This means that they will need to be re-educated; if they are to continue to be employable, and to continue to contribute to the wealth of society. Due to the uncertain speed of development in the demand for LLL, it may though be very much more unpredictable than that for formal education. To date this sector has been dominated by in-house, on-the-job skills training - with individual leisure education falling some way behind, though our respondents - in our wider 1998 survey of 500 OUBS alumni - are clear that the current main form, 'in-house on the job' (30% of the total time they devote to education/training) will become less important (down to 24% in 2020), as will class teaching (both internal and external) - down from 22% to 17% - 'self study (books)' (down from 19% now to16% in 2020) and seminars (11% down to 8%). Despite the uncertainty of timing, it is still clear that the emphasis will soon shift more to the forces driving LLL. Our own 1998 respondents look to a number of other forms to replace conventional teaching; with 'distance taught' up marginally (11% now to 12% in 2020), but with the main beneficiaries as Internet (up from 4% now to 14% in 2020) and in-house computers (up from 6% to 13%). In essence, they believe that the main shift will be from face-to-face teaching by people to distance teaching by computers. Until very recently, however, there has been little evidence that this LLL might be provided in either public or private sectors. This seeming lack of interest from potential providers is nothing less than astonishing. Within two decades, the emerging market is confidently predicted to rapidly grow to be one of the largest consumer markets; worth many billions of dollars. In almost any other sector of the economy we would expect to see the multinationals falling over each other to invest in it!

For most of the next decade LLL is likely to focus primarily on the changes brought about by the economic forces - destroying old jobs and creating new ones, which will need worker re-education. With the emergence of the knowledge society, the need will be for education, investment in longer-term frameworks of understanding which will not be so rapidly outdated, rather than training, for short term skills in the current jobs which will soon be displaced. Thus, it is likely that many of the providers of this new education will initially come from the higher education sector. Not least, the needs of the new knowledge society will call for their expertise, where the lessons are likely to be far removed from largely repetitive manual skills taught by on-the-job training, which currently dominates employer offerings, and the narrowly focused offerings of many of the commercial providers.

The relatively small 'seminar' providers, who make up much of the present industry, do not have the resources to address the larger opportunity. The publishers, the one group seeming to recognise the potential, do not yet have the requisite skills. Indeed, our experience in the Open University - arguably the world leader in the field - is that 'publishing' is an almost trivial part of the overall operation. The core material is not the text-book, it is a session of learning; and the delivery system is much more complex than that through bookshops.

Thus, the HE sector is likely to have the first opportunity to teach new intellectual 'frameworks', for handling the knowledge which is becoming available at the touch of a button on the nearest PC. Unfortunately, with some honourable exceptions most notably the Open University itself, HE institutions do not yet seem to even recognise the emergence of the new market - much less are they developing the new skills needed to exploit it. Once again, it is worth stressing that the first entrants into the new markets are likely to become the long-term brand leaders; especially where there are no large-scale providers in a position to take that leadership away later.

Towards the end of the decade, however, it is likely that the driving force will switch to the individual. In terms of what is taught, according to our wider 1998 survey, the percentage of time given to 'skills' teaching will show the greatest reduction (down from 22% now to 17% in 2020), with smaller drops in 'social networking' (12% down to 9%) and 'knowledge' - now becoming available at the touch of a key on your PC - down from 23% to 20%. These can perhaps be seen as the elements of education demanded by organisations; though 'personal development' stays static at 20%. The growth areas, on the other hand, are seen to be those which are truly personal: 'hobbies/interests' up from 11% now to 18% in 2020 and 'entertainment up from 10% to 15%. Thus, for instance, they agree more strongly that it is needed for 'personal development' (5.8 on a seven point scale) than that it is needed for career development' (5.4). With individual empowerment focusing on (LLL) education as a right for all, and individuals accordingly demanding access to it as a basic necessity for fulfilling their lives, LLL will take on the role of broadening their horizons. At this stage there may be some new opportunities for the smaller organisations, and those who missed the boat earlier, since the need then will be for large numbers of modular courses with fewer economies of scale to keep new entrants out.

Since this sector is currently dominated by face-to-face teaching - most often one-to-one in the workplace, it will be revolutionised by the greater availability of a wider range of distance- and open-learning technologies. Our 1998 respondents looked to a number of other forms to replace on the job training; with 'distance taught' up marginally (11% now to 12% in 2020), but as mentioned eralier with the main beneficiaries being the Internet (up from 4% now to 14% in 2020) and in-house computers (up from 6% to 13%).

New ICT developments will enable almost any mode of education to be viable - even at a distance. Even so, it is probable that paper-based technologies will initially expand fastest; until the ICT educational offerings are, towards the end of the decade, better developed to fully meet the learning needs of individuals. It is worth repeating, though, that this will not necessarily benefit traditional publishers; for the printed material will not be in the form of text-books but specially developed distance-taught learning sessions. In terms of the Internet, it may increasingly be used to deliver modular components of short courses. Indeed, as many of the new placements will be commercially funded - by employers and by the students themselves, resourcing limitations will, for once, be largely removed. Surveys (including our own 1998 survey) amongst OUBS alumni indicate a widespread willingness to pay themselves for their LLL. They rate LLL overall at 5.3 (on a seven point scale), but are less clear what form they expect this to take; rating the various alternatives at much the same level - from 4.5 for short programmes to 4.8 for one-off courses. While they are somewhat cynical about the likelihood that their organisation might pay for this (rating it at 3.8 on a seven point scale), they rate the likelihood of paying for it themselves at 4.9. They expect to pay around £500 a year for this, and to spend 80 hours studying on it.

In this sense, at least, the commercial providers may at least have one initial advantage. They well understand how to sell to mass consumer markets. LLL will be much like any other consumer service. The HE providers, on the other hand, will have to rapidly learn how to market themselves - not least by branding their new offerings effectively.

The one bit of good news for all potential students is that much of the skill needed to provide the material, and indeed much of the initial material itself, is already available. It may be held by just a few key institutions, again most notably the Open University, but it is easy to replicate for use by other deliverers; and even to translate it into other languages.

The initial constraints will, therefore, be in terms of the further development of the necessary delivery infra-structures. With the very large numbers of students ultimately involved - many times greater than the existing undergraduate populations - it is almost inevitable that much of this education will have to be provided by distance learning; there will simply not be enough traditional instructors to meet the demand. Accordingly, the initial infra-structural limitations, to making use of such distance learning on a larger scale, relate to the personal elements:

1)      Tutors - even distance learning, at least in the initial stages, requires considerable personal support from tutorial staff; albeit working with groups of students.

2)       Students - until these become 'independent learners', who can study distance taught courses with minimal personal supervision, they will need considerable tutor and counselling support; and will have to learn to adjust to significant changes in the lifestyles - learning at home in their leisure time.

Both of these bottlenecks should eventually be resolved. The Open University's work in the Horn of Africa has shown that it is possible, even in Third World countries, to grow such infra-structures geometrically; so that within two to three years tens of thousands of tutors can be trained. In the shorter term, though, they may significantly limit the development of LLL, especially if the higher education institutions drag their feet in responding to the pressure to recruit sufficient numbers of such staff. Again, the prizes will go to those who move fastest - especially where the predicted skills shortage, coming at the beginning of the next decade, will dramatically reduce the pool of potential teachers (not least the over 50s now in early retirement, who are the largest pool of suitable talent currently available).

INFORMAL EDUCATION

This is the new, or at least newly recognised, element which may well be the most uncertain - indeed revolutionary - in nature. We have already seen that the progress of LLL itself may be quite unpredictable. We can be reasonably certain it will come, but do not yet know when. One reason, though, why the informal sector will be so important for LLL is that this will eventually pervade most aspects of life, in the home as well as at work, and will be genuinely life-long. We won't be able to escape its influence wherever we are. We will never stop learning; or at least we will all now recognise this fact - and organise at least part of our private lives to meet this challenge. Equally, the providers - even those bordering on being entertainment providers - will increasingly need to organise their offerings to better complement the demands for LLL from their individual customers. The very large numbers of such potential providers will, though, make even the tracking of developments an almost impossible task. Controlling them will be almost as difficult; and the quality of their provision may be crucial to the successful development of the overall process. Indeed, the need for 'certifiers' will become a crucial element of future developments. Potential students, and their employers, will inevitably be confused by the large numbers of unknown suppliers offering even larger numbers of untested courses. They will, therefore, seek the reassurance given by 'certifiers' of quality. These certifiers may come from the larger providers of the delivery systems infra-structures; including the usual IT corporations, such as Microsoft. They might come from the new leaders of such mass education, such as the Open University which already validates undergraduate courses at other institutions. Most likely, perhaps, they will be government agencies. Whoever they are, they will son gain a very powerful position in the (LLL) education market-place.

This is the part of 'education' which should benefit most directly from technological developments:

1)      The Internet - this is where web-delivery of limited size modules of education, each just a few hours long, will come into its own. The short length, and comparably low price, of these modules will, at one extreme, let individuals make them almost an impulse purchase; whilst still allowing them to integrate the modules within their overall educational programme. At the other extreme, it will allow large numbers of small providers the opportunity to supply text-based offerings aimed at meeting specialist needs. The volume market, however, is more likely to be the province of the larger multinationals, which will have the resources to develop the sophisticated interactive multi-media blockbusters which are likely to be demanded - where a typical offering might most closely parallel the logistical provisions of a feature film.

The problem for the individual, and for the new small providers, will be the vast choice available. It will be difficult enough to find an offering to match individual needs - even though the present search engines should soon be replaced by much more efficient (AI) agents - let alone to find guaranteed quality. It is likely, therefore, that the key development will be the emergence of the institutional 'certifiers' mentioned above. On the other hand, the vast numbers of operators requiring such validation will test the logistics of any new system; and will almost certainly require new approaches.

2)      Television - digitisation, reception of which should be widespread by the end of the decade, will have dramatic impacts in this area. At one extreme, the hundreds of different channels available will allow the space for educational material to have its own channels; covering the range from enriched versions of the documentary material now put out by the Discovery and National Geographic channels to an expanded range of true educational material, such as that now being provided by the BBC's Learning Zone. It is arguable that television is already the major - hidden - contributor to most people's education; it is just that this comes about randomly by accident. In future it is likely that even this element, although still informal, will be more firmly located in overall programmes of education; specifically planned by students or their advisors. The fact that digital television will be interactive, and will significantly overlap the other electronic media, will make such managed informal education a powerful new development. Again, the role of 'certifiers' will be crucial.

3)      Books - despite all the hype, however, the market for the printed word, even in the form of books and journals, will also expand. Thus, the sheer numbers of those needing LLL would ensure that this happens, even if the printed word were only a marginal element of the new developments. In fact, for most of the decade, it is likely to remain the central element of even informal education.

4)   Teaching Institutions - these, too, are likely to greatly expand their output; although only a few of them will become major providers of the volume distance learning modules. But much of the new learning process will demand, even in this informal sector, face-to-face teaching or at least tutoring. To meet this demand, however, they will need to recruit large numbers of new teachers to tutor and counsel the new students. It seems likely that a major source of these may come from the 50+ age group; who will, in any case, be seeking greater fulfilment from 'community service'.

DISCUSSION

These developments will have dramatic implications for the various providers:

a)      HE INSTITUTIONS - despite all the hype about the Internet, the current institutions will, in the short-term at least, represent the key element of LLL. They will, however, have to restructure their operations. In particular they will need to negotiate partnerships with the leading distance-learning institutions; to provide the basic teaching material, so that their own staff can be switched to tutoring - which they alone can do - at the 'point of tuition'. As a group, these HE institutions will still be the dominant element of the delivery chains. To maximise their success, though, they will need to build ever stronger relationships with their students; operating much more like a (lifestyle) club rather than a school.

b)      DISTANCE LEARNING INSTITUTIONS - the few leading institutions, rather then their pallid imitators, will be at the centre of the new developments. They will be able to massively leverage their existing investments to cover the massively increased numbers of new students. They will, however, also need to extend their delivery chains - especially to local HE institutions in the public sector and as 'certifiers' to those in the commercial sector.

c)      COMMERCIAL PROVIDERS - despite the substantial efforts of the major publishers, these will only succeed in the longer term if they make suitable arrangements with leading distance-learning institutions. This will be difficult to achieve, however, for the publishers' skills are not especially relevant; though their access to substantial investment funds may allow them to buy into some such arrangements. Worse, as they typically do not understand the market, they may actually hinder their partner's progress. As the personal LLL market develops, over the next decade, many more providers - and even individual authors - will be needed to meet the very diverse requirements of the many new students. The key to success here is likely to be 'certification' by the emerging agencies specialising in this role.

SUMMARY

Education is guaranteed to grow rapidly, to become the largest industrial sector before the end of the decade; as well as the most important driver for the economic and social development of society. The growth will be rapid in the area of short courses, but most rapid in the new informal education sector. It will be driven in the shorter term by the large number of older, educated individuals needing LLL as part of their 'retraining' to meet the demands of new workplace technologies. Towards the end of the decade, the market for such life-long education will switch to meet the increasing demand for individual fulfilment. The large numbers of new students involved in short courses, and especially in the informal education sector, means that much of the expansion will be in the form of distance learning.

It seems likely that the delivery technology, especially in terms of the new electronic media, will be available to meet this demand: across both LLL sectors. Similarly, much of the core material content should be available - based upon the expertise of the existing suppliers of distance learning. More problematic, in terms of the volume of operators to be screened, will be validation of the many new suppliers to these markets - especially those in the informal sector. Most problematic of all will be the response - not least in recruiting extra staff - of the large number of higher education institutions; who will be needed to tutor and counsel the new LLL students. The emergence of a new profession - in terms of educational advisors, may require new standards to be developed; if the problems previously experienced with financial advisors are not to be repeated.

REFERENCES

Mercer, D, Future Revolutions, Orion, London (1998)

Mercer, D,  Marketing Strategy: the Challenge of the External Environment, Sage, London (1998)

Mercer, D, Global forces which will shape our economic and political lives, Futures Research Quarterly, Vol. 13 No. 4 (1997)

Mercer, D, The Future Quantified, Futures, Vol. 30 No. 4 pp 305-322, 1998

Mercer, D, Long Range Marketing, pp 178-184 Journal of Marketing Practice, Vol. 4 No. 6 (1998)

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