FUTURES RESEARCH

7269 Unpublished – Development of Society

SIX KEY FACTORS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIETY

This second, of the global scenarios for 2025 reported by the United Kingdom’s Open University, is the most uncertain of all. It contains the biggest questions, which are - as yet - unanswered. What it describes, illustrated by the highlights below, might be thought of as the ‘individualist society’, or - more cryptically as we, ourselves, tend to think of it - as ‘inner space’; with individuals moving ever deeper into their own private worlds. In this context, the six most important new factors we have observed are:

1. THE INDIVIDUAL VERSUS COMMUNITY

The biggest unanswered question of all is how will the individual interact with society in future. In terms of individual happiness, at least, this is probably the most important question. What is clear, and is widely recognized, is that moves to individual freedom, away from community control, represent - in the developed countries - a major force for social change.

For more than two millennia, the normal individual was subservient to the demands of the community. Indeed, anyone challenging these demands was usually defined as abnormal. Thus, the normal individual inevitably became - especially after the industrial revolution - a small cog in an ever larger machine. Now, however, the developments in technology - and in society - have started to give an increasing degree of personal freedom to the individual. It may still not be possible to directly challenge the community without impunity, but the individual is increasingly free to determine his or her own independent future. This is literally a revolutionary change; which goes far beyond anything that Karl Marx envisaged - but it has so far rarely been described in these terms.

The immediate effects of these new, and as yet unaccustomed, individual freedoms can be seen around us. Not least they can be seen in the breakdown of traditional communities; and even in disintegration of the basic building block underpinning many of these - the family. Despite the fears of the establishment, on the other hand, the breakdown of these conventional structures of society does not represent a fundamentally dangerous form of evil. It should not even be seen as regrettable. It is simply inevitable; and became so when the essential reasons for the existence of the previous structures disappeared. What is more, these revolutionary changes, such as giving individuals powers they have never had before, have become absolutely necessary to create the radically better world which awaits us.

The real problem, in the shorter term, is that the old structures are disintegrating without - as yet - their replacements having emerged, or at least being obvious to society. What is even worse is that, understandably where change is endemic, most individuals have firmly grasped those new developments which favored them personally - not least as consumers in the market society; whilst they have fought as tenaciously to retain the privileges they held under the old systems. This has been described as rights without responsibilities and, again understandably, has been condemned - not least by the losers in this process - as a slippage of moral standards.

But, the breakdown of the previous structures was bound to happen some day. Societies down not stand still for ever, even if they may seem to be stable for centuries on end. Thus, the continuation of this widespread destruction of the world as we know it will continue - it cannot be reversed. What is not inevitable is that the resulting anarchy we observe around us will represent the ultimate outcome; the real end of history! It seems likely that, following the lessons of previous history (and especially of previous revolutions), society will eventually reintegrate and stabilize. New links will be built between individuals, recreating the richness of group interaction which has been temporarily lost with coming of individual supremacy. These new links will, though, not be allowed to infringe upon the new freedoms - that simply would not be acceptable to those many who are now enjoying the fruits of the latter.

The consequent problem, for the medium term, is that it is not obvious what form(s) this brave new society might take. In the great debate, which has now started, communitarians may hark back to the old days. Those advocating civil-liberalism may have a somewhat more realistic case. But neither can truly say what - in any detail - the future will hold. It is, indeed, not even possible to speculate sensibly - as yet - on the alternatives available. What will be the shape of society to come remains one of the most fascinating unanswered, and as yet unanswerable, questions.

Fortunately, the world will go on whatever happens; though the individual will remain emotionally impoverished to an extent, until he or she can once more enter into the rich pattern of interactions with the community which was previously available. What seems likely is that the new form(s) will emerge gradually over the next decades. Social experiments will take place, perhaps built upon some of those started in the 1960s - which were so derided by the reactionaries of the 1990s. Most of these experiments will fail, the reactionaries are right in assuming this to be the case, but some will succeed - to provide a base for the next round of developments. These will be able to challenge the reactionaries’ skepticism. Whatever the outcome, the next few decades will be very exciting at times!

2. NETWORKING

One area of human interrelationships is due for a massive expansion. This is the general area of ‘networking’, not just the electronic forms which so many have commented upon. In a changing world, where hierarchical relationships - especially in the work-place - are disintegrating, the individual increasingly depends upon a network of relationships, with a much wider range of people, to provide the context for his or her work and play. The evidence is that this phenomenon will grow, with or without the intervention of computer networks. Increasing access to the computer networks will, of course, considerably amplify the process; and define many of its characteristics.

From an organization’s point of view, almost all of these developments will be to its advantage; they will lead to increased flexibility and productivity. For the individual, too, some of the changes will significantly enrich their lives. For instance, the number of people with whom they will have regular - network - contact will increase dramatically; and some of these new friends may well live on the other side of the world, bringing the individual regularly into contact with other cultures. Already I - for instance - exchange ideas, on a daily basis, with my new friends across three continents.

Not all these developments will, however, be quite so positive. These new network relationships will typically be single-strand, highly focused, conversations; as opposed to the richly diversified relationships which lie at the heart of long-term friendships or family ties. They will also be subject to continuous shifts, as those involved in the focused discussions move on; to new topics - which others may choose not to follow. In this way, these ‘acquaintanceships’ may last for a few weeks rather than a lifetime. This will demand a radically new approach to friendship. This might perhaps be more akin to that developed by the families in expatriate communities; who learn to very rapidly develop intense new friendships - and to as rapidly let go of these as they are moved to yet another new location.

3. THE UNDERCLASSES

Moving to the other end of the spectrum, in terms of deprivation - from the intangible new developments as much as from the material benefits of the old society - those most affected will continue to be the obvious have-nots. In the US, not least as a result of its racial nature, this is likely to result in a permanent split in society; possibly, and even probably, widening into a permanent gulf between warring factions. Clearly the unequal split in the distribution of wealth will be the major factor determining the lives of those consigned to these underclasses - impoverishing their daily lives and severely constraining their horizons; and this has been widely commented upon. Those caught in this trap in the developed world will, in many respects, be even worse off than their equivalents in the developing world, who may still have some hope of escape.

In societies choosing this path, the haves will also pay a price for this split. Despite their positive acceptance - in the voting booth at least - that the existence of the underclasses is a necessity for their own comfortable prosperity, they will - with considerable justification - fear that in a rapidly changing world they too may be just a step away from the same fate. Even worse, perhaps, they will be exposed more immediately to the social side-effects; not least an escalation of crime, generated by individuals in the underclasses who have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, by moving outside the law. These outcomes, too, have been the subject of much media coverage. This contempt for a law which already excludes them from the benefits of society may sometimes even escalate into guerrilla warfare and bloody revolution.

Fortunately, the evidence suggests that that this descent into a nightmare world is likely to afflict few nations, apart most notably from the US. Other nations, including those in Europe, will draw back from precipice; voters judging, correctly, that the long-term price to paid, for any short-term gains in prosperity by the middle classes, is too high. Aided by the rapid growth in overall wealth, backed by popular electoral support (motivated  in the short-term perhaps by uncertainty as to their own futures), they will successfully address the problems caused by an unequal distribution of wealth. This is a probability which has rarely been reported, perhaps because it may seem too optimistic - and not worthy of front-page drama. Even so, it is likely that, in this way, many of the conservative policies set in place during the 1980s - as a reaction to the failure of the previously progressive policies to handle the pace of change - will themselves be reversed. The positive result should be an acceleration in the overall growth of resources, combined with an improvement in the general quality of life; the opposite of what is forecast by many conservationists and conservatives.

4. FEMINISATION

Members of one traditional under-class, that made up of women, will though escape from their own domestic ghettoes. In retrospect, Women’s’ Lib has proved to be the major political movement of the second half of the twentieth century; though this fact will come as a shock to those many who have ridiculed its proponents. Indeed, it has succeeded far beyond its wildest dreams.

Although women are still disadvantaged, not least in terms of pay differentials, they are rapidly catching up and - more significantly - overtaking men in the labor market. They are, it turns out, better suited - intellectually and especially emotionally - to the emerging demands of the new industries. They, rather than their macho partners (who, supported by sections of the media, nostalgically hark back to the glorious days of manual labor) will be at the heart of the future economy. With a growing awareness of their new-found power and - in line with their affinity with the new developments - a growing radicalism, they will also start to dominate the political agenda. The resulting feminisation of society at large, and especially feminisation of its values (with cooperation replacing competition as the major political force), will be even more influential than the growing presence of women in the key positions of economic power.

At the individual level, they will be left with the responsibility for the family; but this will no longer be the handicap it traditionally has been - for now they will own the family. They will, thus, naturally own the rich relationships for which their menfolk will be searching.

All in all, it may be reasonably be said that the 21st century will belong to women!

5. PORTFOLIO LIVES

One of the most obvious changes in the medium term will be the rapidly widening range of lifestyles available to, and adopted by, many members of society. This will be especially true of the younger age groups, though it represents much more than a generation gap. To a limited extent, a degree of differentiation - at least between work and leisure - has previously been seen; the bank manager from nine to five became a committed golfer at the weekend, or the life and soul of the local Gilbert and Sullivan Society. The difference now is the number of different lifestyles each individual has to choose from, and - even more important - the range of them actually chosen by that single individual, to switch to (depending only upon the needs of the specific situation) on an almost daily basis. The chameleon-like ability of an individual to change his or her lifestyle, eventually perhaps from hour to hour, will soon be way beyond the dreams of even the most adventurous post-modernist.

People now have the money, the time and the inclination to adopt the lifestyle appropriate to the situation which they face. What is more, members of the groups to which they - often very temporarily - belong have increasingly come to expect this match to circumstances; powerfully reinforcing the trend. This is most clearly seen at the work-place; where an individual may now happily move from being the manager of a group to a lowly member of a different team, from a professional expert to a simple communicator, all in the space of a morning. On such a morning I have - for example - moved smoothly from being a diplomat, helping resolve a civil war, to a teacher, explaining the complexities of an MBA course, to project management, of work taking place several thousand miles away, to following the instructions of my secretary, in helping her with photocopying! Flexible working is no longer restricted to the shop floor. It is the new way of life for all - and our lives are the more enjoyable for it.

But this flexibility now extends to all aspects of life. It is becoming as easy to assume a different lifestyle, for the few hours that meet your needs, as it is to dress in a different outfit to suit your mood; and, indeed, the two activities are often intimately related. The emphasis, here, is on the freedom to suit your lifestyle to the occasion - or even to your mood - as you see fit; in a way that previous generations would have considered flippant or fickle. Now, multi-skilled individuals will use all of their skills, using their different lifestyles at various times in work or in play, to optimize what they get out of life.

One particular aspect of this process of flexible living will be that, already discovered by marketers, related to lifestage. No longer will individuals be expected to go through life with the same needs or tastes, perhaps set by their class (as it often was until recently). It is increasingly recognized, not least by marketers such as myself, that individuals have very different requirements as they grow through education into adulthood, get married and have children, become rich empty-nesters (when the children leave home), retire to a life of leisure and then to a supported existence as death approaches. The needs of each of these stages (and of intermediate stages within them) are very different. It is only recently, however, that many of  these differences have been truly recognized. Future work, and play, patterns will take much more account of these differences; especially as database marketing allows suppliers - from supermarkets to finance houses - to very effectively deal with our needs on an individual basis.

6. EDUCATION THROUGH LIFE

One key to almost all of these developments will be the genuine commitment, by the individual as much as by the state, to a life-long program of self-development. This might be described as life-long education, though for too many that term still carries inappropriate overtones derived from childhood memories. On the other hand, it certainly should not be seen as the retraining advocated by so many governments, under the same title, to meet new workplace practices. Much more comprehensively, and productively in terms of long-term investment, it will take the form of a continuous process of self-development - a life-long exploration of the full potential open to each individual - and an optimization of such personal potential - of self-fulfillment (even through play), rather than of their contribution to the economy. This focus on individual needs is radically different to the traditional focus on job skills - even at school.

Instead, it will represent, on the one hand, a joyous exploration of all the aspects of life which interest them - which will vary as they progress through their various life-stages. On the other, it will also encompass an investigation in some depth of the ones they judge - with some professional advice -  to be the most important for them personally. This luxury is, as yet, generally only available to a few of us in the university sector; and, hence, my choice of this as the setting for my own flexible life. In future, it will expand to include a much wider cross-section of the population. The new demand, from this expansion in individual horizons, is likely to be the key to the knowledge society, rather than the supply, from the growing corporate databases.

CONCLUSIONS

The exact nature of the new society is, as I have shown, difficult to predict. It seems likely, however, that it will be much more diverse in nature; offering a much richer diet for individuals to fulfill their potential, in the ways that they choose. How they will ultimately decide to interact with others is even less predictable, but - again - it seems likely that the result will be both diverse and rich, in terms of the new relationships which will emerge.

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