FUTURES RESEARCH

7277 BAM97 – Management Views

MANAGEMENT VIEWS OF GLOBAL SCENARIOS

by David Mercer

(Centre for Strategy & Policy, Open University School of Management)[1]

ABSTRACT

This face-to-face research, part of 'The Millenium Project' - a computer conference based project (jointly sponsored by the Open University, The Strategic Planning Society and DEMOS), was intended to explore how managers, in general, saw the future - over the next several decades in terms of truly global scenarios. Seven teams of managers (from fifty different organisations) were brought together to work on global scenarios face-to-face.

In terms of the resulting scenarios, they clearly saw the optimistic aspects of the future; especially in terms of the selected aspects of technological change - medical advances and travel, not just IT and electronic communications. On the other hand, they had a very jaundiced view of economic and, in particular, political developments. They expected their leaders to create chaos and breakdown rather than order.

Personal (social) and environmental factors did not seem to be strongly registered. On the other hand, the unexpected emergence of space represented not merely a recognition of expected technological triumphs and an opportunity for new frontiers, but also the ultimate insurance underwriting the future of humanity.

MANAGEMENT VIEWS OF GLOBAL SCENARIOS

As we approach the Millenium, a number of significant 'revolutions' are coming to a simultaneous climax. Some of these revolutions are technology driven, especially the Information Technology (IT) Revolution. Some are driven by economic factors, especially those relating to globalisation and world-wide demographic trends, and others have their origins in political changes; the fall of Communism in the East may be about to be matched by the eclipse of 'market democracy' in a number of countries in the West. Above all, major social changes are under way - dominated by the 'Three Posts' (Post-Modernism, Post-Materialism and Post-Fordism).

'The Millenium Project' is a computer conference based project (jointly sponsored by the Open University, The Strategic Planning Society and DEMOS) which is designed to provide relatively accurate predictions of the structural changes which might be expected to occur in the longer-term. It has been under way for several years, and - as one of the earlier stages of that larger project - this face-to-face research was specifically intended to explore how managers, in general, saw the future - over the next several decades - of the world as a whole; in terms of truly global scenarios.

METHOD

As part of the Open University course "The Challenge of the External Environment" our students, who study part-time whilst remaining practising managers and professionals, are required to write a number of scenarios. The basis for this is the technique described in the paper 'Simpler Scenarios'[2] . In particular, they initially use computer conferencing (working together in groups of 4 - 7 participants) as a vehicle for learning the techniques involved - deriving 'country' scenarios as the focus of this exercise.

In the case of this specific research, which took place after students had completed this initial scenarios work, seven teams of students (from fifty different organisations) were brought together to work on global scenarios face-to-face. In groups of seven to eight, they used 'Post-It-Notes' arranged on a wall as the means of developing their shared view of the 'future of the world over the next two to three decades'; typically taking around two hours to achieve the necessary consensus. Most of this time was taken up with determining the 'drivers' for change which they saw as being most important, and then grouping these into meaningful frameworks - before finally bringing them together into two or three complementary scenarios. This last stage was foreshortened compared with the usual process, where scenarios might be developed over several sessions, taking several weeks to polish the final details. Even so, there was a clear sense of convergence of ideas in almost all the groups.

RESULTS

OVERALL SCENARIOS

In general, two approaches to the scenario process were adopted; four of the seven teams followed that of complementary scenarios, as recommended, and three chose to contrast optimistic with pessimistic views - and one team did not complete this final stage.

Despite the different approaches, and the variety recorded in the detail, most of the teams tended to contrast technology based scenarios with economic and political ones. This was not unsurprising, perhaps, where one of the traditional models of the change process - of which the students were aware - has often seen this as initiated by technological factors and then mediated by economic and political ones. What was less predictable, though, was the way in which the technology related elements were typically seen as positive, initiating changes leading to a better (more optimistic) future, where those from the fields of economics and, in particular, politics were seen as negative, even destructive, often leading to chaos and a worse (more pessimistic) future.

Beyond the main splits, the 'technological' scenarios, though, included a wide range of potentially valuable new developments - many of which would not normally be seen to be quintessentially technological - including not just the IT Revolution but space travel, as well as improved health care (leading to longevity) and gene therapy, ecology and terrestrial travel. Conversely, the economic and political scenarios tended to include forms of breakdown, leading to chaos, to conflict and even to war.

TOPIC GROUPS

If all the various elements which contributed to the separate scenarios created by the seven teams are aggregated into one combined package, a similar picture still emerges. The five groups of topics which are then detectable are also generally split between 'technology' and 'economics/politics'; with the addition of a few 'personal' factors which do not feature strongly on either side. What emerges in particular, however, is the dominance of the 'technological' elements; where these can be further divided into three main groups - Science, Environment and Space.

Most of these elements might have been seen to be likely to occur in such scenarios; though their detailed content was, as we will see in the next section, less obvious. What was surprising was the emergence of space as a major driver; coupled with a host of feared new disasters. This force, which is simultaneously outward looking (expanding to colonise the solar system) and inward looking (seeking reassurance against the destruction of humanity), can be seen to be - particularly in view of the lack of media comment in support of the concept - an especially powerful new driver; towards the final frontier!

TOPIC CONTENTS

If these groups of factors are dis-aggregated into their various component parts, a rather more complex picture emerges:

SCIENCE

The contents of this, technologically focused, group do include a significant number of references to the various aspects of the IT Revolution (including the then current pre-occupation with virtual reality) and, indeed, fully recognise the fundamental importance of the new communications technologies; interestingly highlighted by one group as "Telecomms made free of charges". They also include an acknowledgement of the need for development of alternative sources of energy - the main remaining limitation on unlimited technological expansion - but, interestingly, also focus on travel; perhaps a personal aspect of globalisation, which otherwise features less strongly than might be expected, or possibly a recognition that this will become the leading industry of the next century - though, at the other extreme, there is also the belief that personal travel (cars) will be heavily regulated.

What are clearly, though, seen as the most important are those elements relating to medical advances (ranging from cures for major diseases to brain transplants), and especially genetic engineering, which will lead not just to better standards of health but ultimately to major increases in longevity.

ECONOMICS & POLITICS

What is perhaps most interesting about this group is - apart from economics in general, which even then was seen in rather negative terms - the relative weakness (in terms of both unanimity of support and number of mentions) of most of the sub-factors; even though interesting issues - such as the shift of production to the Third World and significant shifts in management style - were raised.

Only the rather negative political factors, which seem to portend threats (from political revolution through to the re-emergence of Fascism and Communism) rather than to promise benefits, generated relatively large numbers of comments; as did the then topical problems faced by the EU. Interestingly, however, the emergence of the Third World (LDCs) as a potent political force was widely recognised - though little developed as a major theme.

ENVIRONMENT

The topics collected under this label mainly related to resource constraints, such as food failing to meet the needs of population growth, though - apart from negative, direct impacts upon food supplies and the positive aspects of increased life expectancy - these seemed to be weakly recognised. Loosely linked, under this heading, are also grouped those 'chaotic' factors - one of only three recognised by all seven teams - also described as breakdown and anarchy. These were often related to crime and drugs, but were also linked to religious fundamentalism and, especially, to inequality.

It should be noted that, apart from global warming, green issues ranked relatively low in importance.

SPACE

This was a relatively unexpected group of factors, which may be split into two opposing aspects. The positive exploration of space and, especially, the colonisation of space - the final frontier (and possibly including some positive contact with aliens) - was one. At the other extreme were major disasters of various sorts. There were those directly linked to space, in the form of asteroid or meteor strikes, but there were also terrestrial threats of equal magnitude, including disease, natural occurrences (such as massive earthquakes) and nuclear explosions (though, interestingly, these no longer seem to threaten the destruction of the whole of humanity). All of these were seen to be capable of destroying large numbers of the population, and with them civilisation, and - in this context - space may be seen to play a very powerful role as the ultimate insurance policy guaranteeing the future of humanity.

This insurance aspect was most memorably summed up by the driver suggested by one team: "God selects 2nd ark - space ark".

PERSONAL

This last group was seen by the teams to be - with a few exceptions - relatively weak in impact.

In view of the social changes taking place (not least the '3 Posts'), this was possibly the area in which the organisations were most exposed to a failure of foresight; with the exceptions of the comments by a minority - that men and women are becoming more alike and that the family structure is breaking down.

DISCUSSION

Indeed, the most obvious gaps in the perspectives explored by the various teams came from their failure to detect structural changes - for instance those in the social areas. This is understandable. It is unlikely that even the most far-seeing academic at the time of the first Industrial Revolution, immersed in the plethora of changes occurring all around, would have been able to see how the structures were changing - indeed, the debate is still continuing as to what really did happen!

What is important, therefore, is the picture which can be built up from the mosaic of small details they do report.

Thus, they do see the optimistic aspects of the future; especially in terms of the selected aspects of technological change - medical advances and travel, not just IT and electronic communications. On the other hand, they have a very jaundiced view of economic and, in particular, political developments. They expect their leaders to create chaos and breakdown rather than order - such that rejection of politics around the globe may even accelerate!

Personal (social) and environmental factors do not seem to be strongly registered. On the other hand, the unexpected emergence of space represents not merely a recognition of expected technological triumphs and an opportunity for new frontiers, but also the ultimate insurance underwriting the future of humanity. Thus, it may not just be a new driver, but it may become one of the most powerful over the century to come.

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