FUTURES RESEARCH

7290 Unpublished  – Economic and Political Lives

SIX KEY GLOBAL FACTORS DETERMINING THE FUTURE OF OUR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL LIVES

This third, and last, scenario in the set developed by the United Kingdom’s Open University, takes as its starting point globalization. Much of has been said about this, in recent years, and many of these comments indeed have the ring of truth. The communications revolution now means that we can as easily talk to someone on the other side of the world as to someone at the next desk, and containerization has resulted in physical products - even perishables such as fruit - arriving in out local supermarket from almost as far afield.

On the other hand, there has been much claimed about this aspect of economic development which has been almost pure, unsubstantiated hype. Thus, for instance, our research shows that the multinationals are definitely not about to take over the world; they simply do not want to - it is not a part of their corporate culture. Indeed, some of them may well be vulnerable to the changes which are taking place in their more exotic markets. At the other end of the spectrum of hype, cheap labor in the developing world is not putting people out of work in the developed world; though it is shifting employment patterns, in the same way that it has done for centuries past, and that may be very uncomfortable for those most directly affected.

Once more, the highlights, some key developments - in the spheres of economics and politics - which will impact all our futures, are described below:

1. GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS

A very great deal has been said about the absolute growth in the world’s population. Estimates of global population size in 2025 range from eight to twelve billion. Not surprisingly, a number of pundits have seized upon these seemingly alarming numbers as a justification for resurrecting the Malthusian predictions of world-wide starvation. It is as well to consider such a possibility, long-range planning should take account of all possibilities, but there really is very little evidence that such a trend might be possible. Ever since Malthus propounded his theory, resources - in particular food resources - have grown faster than the population has; and this has still remained the case in the most recent decades. This, the existence of rapidly growing resources, is a key feature of global development. Against this must also be set a decline, for the first time, in the rate of growth of population - as the Third World nations approach developed status - and the almost infinite resources lying in wait in outer space. Migration, in this case from Earth itself, has always been a viable answer to population pressures.

What should not be in dispute, however, is the uneven distribution of the resources we do have available to us. The owners of these, the haves, still show few signs of sharing them out more fairly, with the have-nots. On the other hand, those who exploit their privileged position in this way should realize is that it is the relative change in demographic pressures which is becoming crucial. By 2025, the developed world to which the main owners of these resources belong, will account for less than a tenth of the world’s population. Thus, significantly, the have-nots will far outweigh - in number if not in individual buying power - the haves; by a ratio of more than ten to one! Combine this fact with the potent ‘democratic’ ideology - of ‘one man one vote’ - still being promoted by the ‘West’ (even though its original target, the USSR, has long since succumbed) and you have the recipe for the rapid collapse of Western power; it perhaps needs only the small boy from the fairy story to see that the Western emperors no longer have any clothes! Even in consumer markets, the very large numbers of individuals in the developing world, despite their low individual incomes (but with their almost open-ended needs), will come to dominate the global markets. We are already seeing an unseemly scramble, by Western corporations, to get into the largest national market of all; that of China. As a mainstream marketer myself, I would always prefer to target the mass markets, those with 90 per cent of the consumers, rather than the smaller, niche markets which those in the West will become!

2. THIRD WORLD POWER

The result is that the major nations of what is now referred to as the Third World will - by virtue of their population sizes - soon come to dominate world power. Even the smaller nations will share in this transfer of power. They are no longer used as the battleground of the cold war, no longer being destabilized by the clandestine forces of both the US and the USSR, so they too can at last begin their own process of development - a process which can now take as little as a decade! Even Africa, long considered a basket-case, is likely to experience vigorous growth by 2025.

This has a number of major implications. Not least, it will start to positively resolve the problem of uneven distribution of resources - the source of the North/South divide discussed so earnestly in the 1980s. Resources will flow, naturally, to where the populations most need them. In turn, these new investments will significantly increase overall global economic growth; creating greater riches even among the developed nations. Quite simply, to date we have neglected this 90 per cent of human potential - awakening it will bring a world-wide boom.

Its psychological impact upon the West in general, and on the US in particular, will be even greater. The currently rich nations have assumed, for centuries past, that their dominance of the globe was God-given. Now, in a very short space of time, it will be taken away. The US, for instance, will have less than a generation to come to terms with its loss of a global empire - where Britain is still suffering withdrawal symptoms the best part of a century since it lost its own position as world leader. The reality, of wealth being created - for all - on an ever increasing scale, will not totally compensate them for this loss of status - and this may lead to some unpredictable reactions

3. GLOBAL ECONOMICS

There are some real components of economic globalism; ones which are not just media hype. Even though it represents only a minor proportion of overall economic activity, international trade can be - in specific sectors - unduly influential in terms of global developments. This is especially true, at the moment, of the burgeoning knowledge industries, which lie at the heart of the new economic developments. Knowledge, now, effortlessly spans the globe in micro-seconds. The whole world is no further away than the nearest telephone socket.

This opens up the new knowledge markets to supply from anywhere and everywhere. Indeed, this process is now becoming a major force for global development. It is as easy to get your programming done in India - and a lot cheaper - and this is no special case. It is worth noting that the second largest group of English-speaking science graduates - after the US - is to be found in India, not in Britain!

The potential impact can be gauged from what has happened in the financial markets. After the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreements, and fueled by the new communications technologies, money now surges back and forth across the world - more than a trillion dollars every day!

These markets also illustrate some of the problems. These flows of money are largely intangible, the result of pure speculation, but they still pose very tangible problems for the organizations which need to fund international trade. The flows can, in a micro-second, destabilize whole markets. Even worse, they are beyond the control of the even the largest national governments; and they can destroy national economic policies far more effectively than any invader ever could. What is more, they will continue to operate on a global scale, out of reach of national politicians, until some form of global regulation finally brings them to book.

4. THE DEATH OF NATIONS

Such lack of financial control is just one symptom of a malaise which is affecting nations. The nation-state as an institution is, almost everywhere, reaching the end of its useful life. For a number of centuries the nation, often imposed by political forces rather than physical geography, has claimed the right - increasingly the sole right - to govern its people. This is still seen, by many politicians at least, to be the natural order of things.

Unfortunately, this cozy view of political life is being overtaken by events at the two extremes. At the community level, the growth of individual freedom - paradoxically fostered by the governments which are otherwise hell-bent on centralization of power - means that there will be ever more irresistible demands for decentralization of such power! These forces may have been resisted by some governments, so far, but they cannot be ignored for much longer. More obviously, the nation is under attack from regional (supra-national) forces - typically in response to the increasingly global nature of the economic forces ranged against them. The new regional governments springing up around the world - led by the EEC and NAFTA - are addressing these global economic forces. They may soon evolve, though, from the purely economic to political union; as the EEC evolved into the EU. The stresses these changes are causing, not least to the national political parties, are to be seen around the world.

The eventual outcome, a shared distribution of power - with each level, from community up to supra-national region, and somewhere in between the nation-state, taking responsibility for (and being given the commensurate power for) those things it does best - should result in structures which are better suited to modern political necessities. This ought to be welcomed - not least for the stability the changes will bring to a world that has too often been at war. Unfortunately, these facts are not as evident to the national politicians; who can only see the threat to their own personal power.

5. THE END OF POLITICS

This is, though, just one challenge facing politicians in general. With the nation state came the political parties, which still dominate the political processes at all levels. These parties, too, face a bleak future. The growth in individual freedom, which the parties themselves have fostered for political advantage, has led to a breakdown of group loyalties. Amongst the main victims have been the parties themselves, whose members - and especially their electorates - have deserted them in droves. This individualism is a trend which, once started, cannot be stopped. Perhaps the US, which alone is following contrary trends in most sectors of human activity, will be able to sustain its traditional party structures; now held together by the threat of an internal enemy - the growing underclass rebellion - instead of the external one offered previously by the USSR.

Elsewhere, single issue politics seem to be more vibrant. The issues are much clearer when examined individually; be they animal rights or the global environment. They are irretrievably muddied when joined with the grubby parcel of other issues which parties try to make their own - to win the popular vote. The once clear party choices, us or the communists say, no longer are meaningful - and perhaps never were!

The dynamism of single issue groupings may pose significant problems for the traditional political parties. The latter are faced with dramatic lurches in direction as popular forces overtake them and, even worse, by splits within their own ranks; as their supporters no longer accept a policy of my party right or wrong, but choose to reflect the national splits on individual issues. Clearly, the traditional parties cannot much longer survive, unchanged, the resultant stresses.

On the other hand, it is as yet difficult to see how the single issue parties could cope with the more complex problems of running a country; or how they might build a consensus to support such a role. There are some examples, at national level as well as at local level, of systems which can cope successfully - typically by adopting a commitment to genuinely representative democracy - but there is so far no evidence that these experiments can be applied more generally. There has also been much talk of other forms of democracy - most often perhaps of direct democracy, by using devices such as referenda to directly involve the electorate - but, again, there is little evidence that these, by themselves, will lead to viable new systems of government overall.

As a result, what the future holds for politics is another of the very open questions!

6. THE ISOLATED ESTABLISHMENT AND REVOLUTIONARY PAINS

The group which is most exposed to the problems of rapid change is the establishment in general, and the political establishment in particular. What is worse is that its members simultaneously form the one group whose future is genuinely under threat - it is typically the establishment itself which is displaced (often violently) by any revolution - and they provide those who are in charge of the transition to that future. The result is, not surprisingly, a degree of panic - a fear of the future which they have conveyed to the wider population.

The problems of rapid change, which accompany any revolution, are well known; and the current crop were accurately predicted several decades ago by Alvin Toffler (who then referred to them as ‘future shock’). We prefer to characterize them as ‘revolutionary pains’, since their key characteristic is that they are by definition short-term, lasting only as long as the leading edge of the revolution takes to work its way through. Above all they do not represent - as many politicians appear to fear - underlying trends which will remain with us. The evidence is that, as in previous revolutions, they will soon be replaced by the optimism, even a boom, which results from the move beyond; into the post-revolutionary world. The only difference now is that the processes seem to be happening much faster, but - surprisingly - with much less damage (let alone the violence) than in previous times, so that the pain should disappear in less than a generation. The future should be much brighter than the pundits allow for - and this was demonstrated, in our research, by the very clear contrast between private optimism and public pessimism.

CONCLUSIONS

Economic forces on a global scale are leading to the creation of regional political unions. As a result of this, and of the moves to individual freedom, political parties face extinction; though what will replace them is an open questions. Still, the future - for all except the establishment which is charged with managing the transition (and still poses a major threat to its success) - will be bright!

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