POINTS OF VIEW
8034 Social Theory 5 - Socio-Economic Models
In the long-term socio economic models are normative, describing no more than consensual agreement on future priorities.
Thus, shorter term models tend to describe the perceived positive aspects along with their limitations. The resulting outcomes lead to setting long-term normative priorities, but the processes of perception may be subject to considerable distortion
The creation and transmission of such models is a complex aggregation of group interactions. The factors involved may include: the transmission media, the characteristics of chosen models, the clarity of message and the rates and degree of change incorporated, the degree of consensuality already in the system, together with the level of legitimation and the degree of leadership (messianic or otherwise).
Models are best seen as languages used to formally communicate agreements on priorities, obtained consensually between the major participants.
In the long-term models need to consider no significant upward bounds, where the total available resources are effectively infinite. In the short-term they will tend to describe the resources most restricted which lead to the current bottlenecks.
The description above was written when I was trying to get my head around the problems we were encountering in the Futures Observatory. The outcome was, of course, the Hypothesis of Aggregated Expectations. However, the above thought processes indicate some of the implications of the base theory. Thus, in the long-term, 'aggregated expectations' - across a wide range of human activities -- will determine the ultimate outcomes. On the other hand, in the short-term the whole process is distorted by the focus on the currently fashionable ideas. Occasionally, though, the silliest of ideas - such monetarism - can hold sway with the group of the population -- such as government economists -- who in turn actually control the major levers in a specific sector. This is, though, typically a reaction to the breakdown of the previous consensus rather than to any dramatic new developments.
The transmission of these models is especially important. If you can capture the media you can -- at least in the shorter term -- wreak havoc with the outcomes. You only have to review the headlines over a few years -- preferably over a few decades -- to see how the current fads affect the leaders at various times.
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