FUTURES
RESEARCH
9109 – Future Observatory 2 - The Futures Observatory and the European Commission
As we approached the millennium, I began to feel that the title 'Millennium Project' had reached its ultimate limits. Accordingly I renamed the project the 'Futures Observatory'. At the same time I thought it should become a more professional organisation. This involved getting it approved as a project by OUBS management, who very grudgingly gave it a budget of £5,000. I then went out and persuaded further four organisations to donate £5,000 each. These were BT, as represented by Ian Pearson who was very influential in the whole project, Barclays Bank, ICI (where I did some private work as well) and ICL. In addition, though I never managed to get any money out of their financial processes, the European Commission (EC) provided some support -- especially moral support. Mike Rogers was at the heart of this, and their clout helped us considerably when we came to publish material.
You'll see elsewhere how this worked, but in essence there was a small core of supporters. This comprised myself, Ian Pearson, Mike Rogers and representatives from the other organisations. We met once every couple of months or so, and each took it in turn to host the meeting. I remember, in particular, the meeting at Martlesham near Ipswich where BT labs showed us all their latest developments.
We also had very productive meeting with the European Commission. I remember it well, since we were in conference room which overlooked the roofs of Brussels as a snowstorm was starting. To add flavour to the meeting we were sitting at the six-sided table on which the original Treaty of Rome was signed. Moreover, also attending was the new head of the European Commission Futures Group. He had just come from launching the Euro, that very day, and we were given a fascinating insight into the future of that currency. At the time the euro was predicted to fail -- where of course it has in fact been a great success. Even more interesting was the fact he revealed that, at that time, they and the Americans were negotiating to have a combined reserve currency. That of course never took place, as Americans will never surrender any aspect of sovereignty.
The best meeting of all was one, nothing to do with the Futures Observatory, organised earlier by Michael Rogers. I should explain that Jacques Delors, when he was president of the European Commission, had set up a futures group in his private office -- his cabinet -- and Michael Rogers was one of the specialists in this group. Accordingly, he set up an international meeting which brought together 20 or 30 of the top futurists and experts from across Europe.
We sat around this massive circular table and discussed the future of Europe. There were some very interesting speakers brought into the meeting as well. I remember an interesting discussion with John Monks, then the head of the British TUC. There was also an ambassador to NATO, who made some very insightful comments on the future of international organisations. The talk over lunch, especially that with the DGs (Director Generals) who joined us, was also fascinating; as was that with the Head of the EC’s Interpreters. He told me about the impact made by Tony Blair, who had at the time just attended his first meeting with the other leaders. The meeting had turned into something of a love fest! All in all, it our own meeting was really excellent, and one in which I made many useful contacts.
Perhaps the social highlight of the meeting, however, was the dinner on the final night; which took place in the restaurant used by the Commissioners. Before the dinner, I noticed this tall gentleman being introduced to people at the other end of the bar and I was ultimately brought across to talk to him myself. It was Jack Santerre, who was then President of the Commission. After a tricky start - when we tried to work out what language we should be speaking in until we eventually recognized that it would be best speaking English -- I tried to persuade him to support the Russian application for entry to the European Union. Shortly before, the then Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin had asked for Russia to be considered as a member. Jacques Santerre was very dismissive. Interestingly, his argument was that the long history of Russian governments, based on the boyar system, was what made it unsuitable – its more recent history of communism was not the major problem.
After this seminar, organised by Michael Rogers, I was invited to join a group working with the other futures groups within the EC. This was not part of the President's office, but was at its think tank in Seville. We had an interesting meeting in Brussels, to kick it off, even though the computer techniques their technical staff wanted to use failed miserably. But I knew a number of the other experts and we still managed to come up with some good results. The next meeting was in Seville itself.
They had an office building which was on the site of the Seville World Fair. I was staying in a modern hotel not far away from it. It was very comfortable, though - as it was the off-season - the pool was shut. Unfortunately, I arrived to discover that I had mistaken the date and was a day early. Accordingly I spent a day sightseeing in Seville. The problem was that I was expecting to be there for just day -- and I only had the one suit I was wearing with me. Sightseeing in a suit is not good at the best times, and it was awful when it was raining all day and I got soaked most of the time. Even so, Seville certainly proved to be a more interesting city than when I visited it in the 1950s.
The next couple of days we followed the rather bureaucratic approaches centre set up by the EC’s staff. I tried my best to fit in with these approaches, but they were much more rigid than I was used to. Worst of all, there were commercial consultants also involved, who spent most of their time desperately trying to bid for new business. I become so annoyed with the whole process that -- having stayed course -- I resigned at the end of the meeting. This turned out to be a surprisingly profitable decision, since they then commissioned me - for something like €5000 - to write my report individually. Thus, I was paid, where as a member of the task force I was actually losing money, as the expenses were so tight; and I had my name on the published EC report!
While it lasted, the Futures Observatory was very influential group. Unfortunately, perhaps indicative of the short-term viewpoints of most organisations, almost all of the groups involved ultimately were disbanded. The only one to remain was that of BT, and even that was privatised.
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